The Olympic flame returned to mainland China over the weekend amid the sort of carnival mood that Beijing has been longing for. Although the globe-trotting torch was borne aloft in the seaside resort of Sanya by athletes, celebrities, and the CEO of trendy Nasdaq-listed website Sohu.com, however, its sister flame in Tibet seems to be going nowhere.

The torch in Tibet remains stranded on the slopes of Everest, its exact whereabouts a mystery. Bad weather over the weekend scuppered the torch team's training ascents to adjust to the altitude, and now threatens their chances of getting to the top inside China's original May 10 deadline.

High winds last week, and then heavy snow over the weekend have pinned down Chinese mountaineers for six days now, NEWSWEEK has learned. Last Tuesday, Chinese climbers who had passed the 7,000 meter-mark were forced back down to lower ground by dangerously strong winds. Then on Friday to Sunday, the mountain was pummeled by a snowstorm, causing further delays. Should the storms clear, the climbers (now waiting at 6,500 meters) will have to plough their way through fresh snow on the upper slopes, the so-called "one meter a minute" zone where every footstep demands willpower.

Torch relay organizers have acknowledged there's a problem, and are putting a brave face on it. Shao Shiwei, deputy director of the Beijing Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games' media department, said on Sunday the timing of the ascent looked "uncertain", according to Reuters. "It's hard to say if there will be a long delay or not, I don't have any information," he told a news conference, promising more details once the the team gets a clearer weather forecast. That seems fair enough. Less convincingly, he suggested that any setback caused by the storms was insignificant because the torch team's preparations for an ascent were still incomplete.

"Since the training, adjustments and the route fixing are integral parts of the overall mountaineering event, I think the weather conditions will not have a great effect on the final ascent," said Shao.

This is more debatable, as the mountain's weather patterns offer only a brief chance to conquer it each year. China originally asked neighboring Nepal, to close its side of Everest to other expeditions till May 10. If that deadline is missed, it will have to persuade Nepal to extend it. This may not be the toughest diplomatic challenge as Nepal has already taken extraordinary measures to assist its economically powerful neighbour. Kathmandu has closed the Nepalese side of the mountain above 6,500 meters, impounded mountaineers' satellite phones in a tent to prevent unmonitored communications, expelled journalists and sent troops and police to patrol Everest base camp. Nepalese security personnel reportedly have orders to use lethal force against protesters, according to local media.

Even if China buys more time from Nepal, time is not limitless. Everything depends on whether the summer monsoon holds off till June or arrives early. It brings massive thunderstorms and heavy snows that "will put the mountain off-limits till autumn", according to high-altitude climatologist Dr Javier Corripio from the University of Innsbruck who forecasts the weather on the major Himalayan peaks. http://www.meteoexploration.com/mountain/forecasts.htm . Nonetheless, Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay conquered Everest on May 29 1953, so late ascents are possible. 

Dr Corripio is cautiously optimistic, saying the torch bearers have a "a good chance of reaching the summit by May 10". He's predicting calmer winds, and thinks brewing thunderstorms will remain off to the south. If China's team is not fully acclimatized they may have to go slowly, in which case dangerous 50 kilometer-an -hour winds on Wednesday could prove a problem, breaking up an ascent which generally takes a fit, well-positioned team two days in good weather.

Whatever dangers the torch bearers face, mountaineers are predicting even greater risks for the expeditions stalled in their tents on the Nepalese South Face. Once the torch summits - if it summits - they will rush for the top in the few remaining climbing days. With scant chance to acclimatize, and a traffic jam at the top, there's a high risk of casualties. "It is a recipe for disaster", says Dr Corripio.  

There are several hundred climbers stuck in Nepal's Everest Base Camp, and a further 200 tents altogether at Camps One and Two (the latter at 6,400 meters), according to MountEverest.net, a community site for mountaineers.  It reports a Nepali police post has been set up at Camp Two, and says there's a soldier "doing the rounds each day with a sniper rifle" to keep potential protesters off China's side of the mountain. Last week, an American mountaineer was deported from Nepal after a Tibetan flag was found in his backpack. Even the Italian flag is banned, according to Silvio Mondinelli whose expedition was ordered to remove it from the top of their tents.

Journalists who visited the Nepalese Everest Base Camp have reported sightings of Chinese military in Nepalese villages lower down the Everest trail, and a recent airborne inspection by senior Chinese military guests in a Nepalese army helicopter. If true, then China has leaned heavily into Nepal's internal affairs to protect its Olympic pride and its sovereignty over Tibet from attention-grabbing stunts by protesters.

Meanwhile, China sought to placate international criticism of its handling of the March riots in Tibet by holding talks with envoys of Dalai Lama on Sunday. The talks sputtered to a halt after one day, rather than the original three days, but both sides have agreed to talk again. Neither see these discussions as more than exploratory, and many Western commentators doubt whether China has any serious intentions. The talks were preceded by more sharply critical editorials on the Dalai Lama in the Chinese media, but they took place, which is more than seemed possible a month ago. If they fail, the Dalai Lama's weakening hold over militants in the Tibetan Youth Congress is likely to slip further.

UPDATE: Prospects for an ascent continue to look grim. Chinese officials gave an upbeat press conference on Monday, but the weather does not yet appear to be lifting. Late on Monday the BBC's Jonah Fisher, one of the journalists at the Chinese base camp reported in his diary that "It is obvious from the snow and high winds we have been experiencing that it is unlikely that the climbers will be making an attempt on the summit anytime soon." There are signs, however, of cameras and extra climbing equipment being moved up the mountain.