The aftermath of the truck bomb blast in Armali on July 8. AFP-Getty Images

It was clearly bad luck. A sand fly buzzing around Amman’s international airport on Saturday got trapped on a commercial flight bound for Baghdad. As I sat in seat 1C watching the insect bounce pointlessly against the window as the plane’s door closed, I could only shake my head and smile. The poor little fly’s lifespan was probably only month or less, and it was going to spend its final days in an increasingly dangerous Iraqi capital.

Of course, I was going to Baghdad as well, and the fly’s misfortune rubbed off on me. My suitcase never arrived at baggage claim, and I was told by a colleague that it could take weeks before it was found. I barely had time to ponder the implications of wearing the same clothes for that time in 100-plus degree heat before more important issues came to light. The biggest: the continuing deterioration of security since my first assignments here in 2003 and today.

The Green Zone, the only place that seemed to promise guaranteed security in Baghdad, cannot boast that anymore. The proliferation of “duck and cover” shelters like fast food restaurants, to protect people from the daily mortar and rocket attacks, are testament to that, as is the tripling or even quadrupling of security checks and body searches inside the perimeter. Jogging or even walking out of doors is not advisable, though some continue to do so amid the occasional sirens warning of incoming projectiles.

I also needed to get my head around the latest with the U.S. military “surge” and the Iraqi political process, the latter of which, all sides agree, is the only way to secure a lasting peace here. It’s been 22 months since my last assignment here, but it’s clear that things are not going well. Consider events just this past weekend: Car bombs in and around Baghdad killed at least 220 people; some Shiite and Sunni political parties continued to boycott both cabinet and parliament sessions; there was renewed opposition to a draft bill governing Iraq’s oil industry, whose passage is one of the progress “benchmarks” set by the United States, and rumors of a pending no confidence vote against Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, with whom the Bush administration has pinned its hopes for political reconciliation and progress.