Archives » Friday, January 30, 2009
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Larry Kaplow
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Jan 30, 2009 01:31 PM
Iraq's elections tomorrow are local affairs meant to choose the
leadership of 14 of the country's 18 provinces. But the implications
are national.
Previously, Iraq's finger-inking electoral
spectacles were largely ethnic referenda. The religious Shiites formed
their big coalition and harvested the votes of their dutiful followers.
Most Sunnis boycotted and those who did vote went for the big Sunni
ticket. Kurds voted for a Kurdish list that conveniently tied up all
the often contentious Kurdish factions.
Not so in this contest
over individual provinces, most of which are homogeneously Shiite or
Sunni (the Kurdish provinces vote this summer). Now Shiite titans are
facing off against each other and the divided Sunnis are in a
free-for-all. The vote could finally show which parties have genuine
grass roots support and whether certain ideologies are gaining ground,
which will determine the alliances formed for the crucial national
elections scheduled for December.
It will take days to get
reliable results and weeks to interpret them. Many candidates claiming
to be "independent" are really plants who are expected to hitch up with
bigger partners later when the councils vote to fill the powerful
governorships. Here are some of the match-ups to watch.
Maliki vs. Hakim: Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Islamic Dawa Party and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) have been the two Shiite
powerhouses since they returned from exile behind American tanks. With
Dawa the weaker partner, they have shared power in government and have
previously ridden tickets together. But now they run against each other
as they wrestle for control of Shiite provinces across southern Iraq.
Maliki
has used his incumbent power to cultivate tribal figures, setting up
paid support councils and rewarding them with government projects. It's
cut deep into ISCI influence and the contest has become acrimonious.
Dawa, in general, seeks a strong central government while some ISCI
leaders hope victory in southern provinces could lead to the formation
of a relatively autonomous Shiite federal region across the south which
could enhance the clout of ISCI's long-time ally, Iran.
Secular vs. Religious: The
clichéd wisdom is that Iraqis are tired of the religious parties that
have dominated the last five years. Corruption is rampant and public
services are still lacking. The national government and the local
provinces
are nearly all run by fundamentalists now, whether Sunni or Shiite.
Some here hope the fundamentalists will lose ground, which would be
good news to American and
European observers concerned about women's rights and individual
freedoms.
While most expect secular factions, including ones
backed by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and another linked to Ahmed
Chalabi, to make inroads, they are not expected to surge. The religious
parties are the best funded, most organized and draw support from the
masses more concerned with stability than liberal freedoms.
Old Sunnis vs. New Sunnis: Sunni provinces have been run by the
factions that braved threats and assassinations to win the tiny vote
totals during the greater Sunni boycott. Now the Sunnis who boycotted
are in the game. They include bulk of the tribal leaders, with
insurgent ties, who feel they deserve a place in power for turning
against Al Qaeda.
This basically pits against each other two
movements that served American purposes early on in getting Sunnis in
the government and, in the case of the latter group, fighting terror.
If they peacefully divide power, it could be an important step forward.
If the new Sunnis end up feeling cheated, they could return to violence
or let Al Qaeda back in the door.
Arabs vs. Kurds: In Ninevah
province, Arab candidates hope to break a Kurdish stronghold on the
council. Then they hope to use their clout to force Kurdish militias
out of areas they control, all potentially combustible.
Sunnis
vs. Shiites: This familiar contest in mixed areas like Baghdad and
Diyala is renewed with greater participation expected from Sunnis.
Their numbers aren't great enough to win--Baghdad is probably
three-quarters Shiite--but they can increase their representation.
Insiders vs. Exiles: Most of the parties in power are led by figures
that made their contact with America during their exiles. But parties
led by Iraqis who lived through Saddam Hussein's tyranny are becoming
more organized and could see modest gains.
Sadrists vs.
Shiite powers: The movement of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has been
disorganized and subdued since government forces pounded them in the
spring. They are not running official candidates for the councils but
have backed purported independents. Their success could show what kind
of street support continues for Sadr, who is said to studying religion
in Iran.
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