There's one less player now on the chaotic streets of Basra, where the Iraqi government and contending parties and gangs are scrapping for control of Iraq's oil-rich second city. Reports have emerged in the last couple of days that government forces have detained Yussef al-Mussawi, leader of a shadowy fundamentalist group, Thar-Allah–"God's Revenge." Newsweek wrote about Mussawi last October, describing how local warlords exert more authority than the central government. He worked from a compound on the edge of the city, surrounded by his heavily armed aides.

Government officials say he is behind a string of assassinations, including the killings of professionals and women, the latter apparently because they were not maintaining strict codes for modest dress and behavior. They also accuse Mussawi of ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. But some see the recent wave of arrests as an attempt by leading government Shiite parties to neutralize Shiite rivals.

These three charts provided to NEWSWEEK by the military last week give a rough idea of how the violence in Iraq today compares to other times during the war. The military still does not attach figures to the charts but it is more forthcoming with comprehensive trends--released in close-to-real-time--than it used to be.

This chart shows that weekly attacks are in a low, nearly four-month plateau with fewer than 600 attacks of all kinds across the country per week. Attacks haven't been down at those levels for a sustained period since about spring 2005 (and they surpassed 1,500 attacks a week back in June of last year), according to the military's information.

This chart shows violent civilian deaths down in January to just above 500 a month, the lowest figure in about two years:

The third shows Iraqi security forces and U.S. military deaths per month--with an uptick for U.S. deaths in January while Iraqi deaths dropped:

Yesterday I took a day trip with Gen. David Petraeus – one of his frequent "battlefield circulations" – to a small farming village near the Iraqi town of Yussefiya, about 30 miles southwest of Baghdad. These kinds of excursions are generally dog-and-pony shows: day-long spin sessions that involve a fair amount of theatrics from American officers going on about how much progress has been made. (Yesterday was no exception; the climax came when the four-star general passed out soccer balls to Iraqi kids as flashbulbs flickered.) Still, I try to tag along for them when they come up; you never know when you might come across some news. And I admit I never miss the chance to ride on a Blackhawk helicopter over Iraq – which, even after dozens of trips, is still the cheapest thrill in the Middle East.

I also happened to be interested in the topic yesterday: the military's new "concerned local citizens" programs. American diplomats and officers love to talk about this new strategy of relying on local strongmen for security – "government from the ground up," as they put it. In the short term the project has produced some noteworthy results in reducing attacks on American troops. Yet in the long term it also presents some significant risks. Two weeks ago I wrote a story for the magazine that looked at the dark side of this phenomenon, which, in practice, includes the rise of dozens of American-supported warlords. Since the story appeared, a couple of things reminded me just how difficult the balancing act will be.

There's probably little legal clout to the Iraqi government's vow Monday to expel the security firm that protects American diplomats. But that should not diminish the importance of the incident the day before, in which eight Iraqi civilians were allegedly killed by diplomatic guards, or the ongoing controversy about the conduct of the U.S. Embassy's security force. In addition to the personal tragedy for those cut down while passing through a busy Baghdad square, this was a setback for the very interests American diplomats are trying to promote, and it is largely of America's own making.

That's because the dispute isn't really about whether the gunners for Blackwater USA were at fault for the deaths that occurred when a convoy of SUVs reportedly returned fire from unidentified gunmen in Nusoor Square. First accounts are often wrong and the full story may never be told. The question is whether anything would happen to the guards even if they did kill innocent people. Through multiple decrees by past American administrators in Iraq, later imposed on the Iraqi government, contractors are largely immune from prosecution for the force they use here against Iraqis. There are some 20,000 to 30,000 private security contractors here now, presumably about the same as their presence over the past three years, and none has been prosecuted for the use of excessive force against local residents.

Iraqis know this and point it out constantly with stories of deaths involving contractors. A notorious one in the Green Zone was the allegedly unprovoked killing of a guard for an Iraqi vice president by a Blackwater employee on Christmas Eve. (U.S. officials acknowledged a killing occurred and promised to investigate.) Iraqi politicians cry out for changes in the Iraqi law to end what they see as the impunity of the contractors and note the contradiction it poses amid American efforts to promote the rule of law by the Iraqi government. U.S. soldiers who commit crimes here can be punished and have been jailed under military codes, but those don't apply to contractors. They often just get a flight out of the country when they get in trouble.

Downplaying Expectations? Ambassador Crocker, speaking to Baghdad store owners this past weekend, says just about everyone is unhappy with work on the ‘benchmarks’.

In the marble-lined palace housing most of the U.S. Embassy staff on Tuesday, around a table with the coffee, bottled water and cookies offered at these briefings, it was unclear exactly why Crocker wanted to hold the briefing, which was scheduled a few days ago. He gave no opening statement before throwing it open to questions that he answered in characteristic modesty--noting when he had doubts or didn't have answers. He likely wants to downplay the emphasis and expectations around the September report. Crocker said that even if the Iraqi government had tackled all the benchmark issues, the country could still be headed in the wrong direction. And even if it tackles none of them, but leaders are talking, bonding and building their capacity for peaceful politics, Iraq could be on the right track.

The aftermath of the truck bomb blast in Armali on July 8. AFP-Getty Images

It was clearly bad luck. A sand fly buzzing around Amman’s international airport on Saturday got trapped on a commercial flight bound for Baghdad. As I sat in seat 1C watching the insect bounce pointlessly against the window as the plane’s door closed, I could only shake my head and smile. The poor little fly’s lifespan was probably only month or less, and it was going to spend its final days in an increasingly dangerous Iraqi capital.

Of course, I was going to Baghdad as well, and the fly’s misfortune rubbed off on me. My suitcase never arrived at baggage claim, and I was told by a colleague that it could take weeks before it was found. I barely had time to ponder the implications of wearing the same clothes for that time in 100-plus degree heat before more important issues came to light. The biggest: the continuing deterioration of security since my first assignments here in 2003 and today.

The Green Zone, the only place that seemed to promise guaranteed security in Baghdad, cannot boast that anymore. The proliferation of “duck and cover” shelters like fast food restaurants, to protect people from the daily mortar and rocket attacks, are testament to that, as is the tripling or even quadrupling of security checks and body searches inside the perimeter. Jogging or even walking out of doors is not advisable, though some continue to do so amid the occasional sirens warning of incoming projectiles.

I also needed to get my head around the latest with the U.S. military “surge” and the Iraqi political process, the latter of which, all sides agree, is the only way to secure a lasting peace here. It’s been 22 months since my last assignment here, but it’s clear that things are not going well. Consider events just this past weekend: Car bombs in and around Baghdad killed at least 220 people; some Shiite and Sunni political parties continued to boycott both cabinet and parliament sessions; there was renewed opposition to a draft bill governing Iraq’s oil industry, whose passage is one of the progress “benchmarks” set by the United States, and rumors of a pending no confidence vote against Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, with whom the Bush administration has pinned its hopes for political reconciliation and progress.

The body search on the Euphrates. Photo: AP

Iraqi police in the central region of Hilla were telling reporters that they had found the corpse, shot in the head and chest, of a Western-looking man in a partial U.S. military uniform. That was in the Euphrates River near the city of Musayyib, roughly 30 miles south of the site where the three men were abducted after an attack on their two-vehicle patrol May 12. They were parked on a road doing surveillance, according to the military, about half a mile from the river.

As of late Wednesday in Iraq, there was no confirmation from the military about whether the body had been identified. The military is careful not to name any soldiers killed until their relatives are notified. Sometimes the process can take days, as spouses and parents, possibly living in different locations, are found by soldiers specially trained in breaking the tragic news face to face. In the meantime, entire bases can shut down soldiers' Internet and phone access to prevent gossip from reaching the home front.

After the soldiers were abducted, officers in their unit told reporters that special teams had been assigned from their home base in Fort Drum, N.Y., to keep the families informed of progress in the huge, 4,000-soldier search under way.

The Army has identified the three missing soldiers as Pfc. Joseph J. Anzack Jr. of Torrance, Calif., Specialist Alex R. Jimenez, of Lawrence, Mass., and Private Byron W. Fouty, of Waterford, Mich.