Today Chinese authorities revealed a gloomy – and unyielding – prognosis for negotiations over Tibetan autonomy. Despite eight rounds of talks since 2002, Beijing officials said no progress was made in the latest meeting which took place in China from Oct. 31 to Nov. 5.

   Although the negotiations were “frank and sincere”, both sides still faced a “great divergence” in attitudes, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua quoted senior official Zhu Weiqun as saying. Zhu, who is vice minister of the United Front department which is handling negotiations with the exiled Dalai Lama’s envoys, said at a press conference that “by denying Chinese sovereignty over Tibet, [the Dalai] has been trying to seek a legal basis for his claims of independence or semi-independence over Tibet.”

 Zhu also accused the Dalai Lama of ignoring Beijing’s July request to stop the anti-Beijing campaign by some Tibetan exiles to disrupt the 2008 Beijing Games in August. “Not only did the activities to damage the Beijing Olympics not stop, but they escalated,” said Zhu, who blamed the Dalai Lama’s envoys for why recent talks failed to make progress.

     The pessimism in Beijing is a response to equally grim statements by the exiled Tibetan religious leader himself. The Dalai Lama recently said “I have faith and trust in the Chinese people; however, my faith and trust in the Chinese government is diminishing."

     The downbeat pronouncements and finger-pointing are the pre-game warm-up for a pivotal meeting of Tibetan exiles this week.

     About 500 Tibetan exiles are preparing to gather in Dharmsala, India for an unprecedented Nov. 17-22 conference. Organized by the Tibetan parliament-in-exile, the political gathering will be the largest of its kind – and its debate over Tibetans’ future could shake the roof of the world.

　Tibet’s exiled religious leader the Dalai Lama recently spoke in starkly pessimistic terms about the fitful negotiations between his envoys and Chinese authorities. ”Our approach failed to bring positive changes inside Tibet,” he told a Tokyo news conference last week. Earlier said he’d “given up” on the talks due to their lack of progress towards genuine autonomy in Tibet, ruled by Beijing since 1959.

　 Two of his envoys returned to Dharmsala in early November after attending the eighth round of talks, seen as increasingly important after anti-Chinese riots erupted in Tibetan areas in March. That violence was the worst unrest on the roof of the world in more than two decades. The Tibetan envoys refused to comment on the negotiations' content before the Dharmsala conference.

The Dalai Lama will not attend the November meeting, but it serves as a pressure tactic to remind Beijing of more hard-line militants among the Tibetan exiles. He has advocated a non-violent “middle way” in Tibet, urging cultural and religious autonomy but accepting Beijing’s control. Chinese officials are reluctant to trust the Dalai Lama’s promise that he doesn’t seek  independence. And his pacifist stand has frustrated younger activists, especially within the separatist Tibetan Youth Congress which Beijing has accused of “terrorism” (a charge the Dalai Lama has denied).

　   The November meeting may give greater voice to Tibetan Youth Congress militants. And the Dalai Lama may hope that it underscores to Chinese officials that their last, best hope for a lasting peace in Tibet lies in a solution that includes his input.

　 Some Beijing authorities contend the Tibet problem will be solved automatically once the Dalai Lama passes from the scene.  Last month the 73-year-old religious leader underwent gallstone-removal surgery, and in Tokyo he said he’s looking forward to “complete retirement.” Said Dhondup Dorjee, vice-president of the Tibetan Youth Congress which espouses Tibetan independence, “He’s laying the foundation so the Tibetan movement will continue forward democratically.”

      A recent commentary in the official Xinhua News Agency sniped at the "long-scheming Dalai [who] has again tossed out the topic of his so-called 'retirement'." Asked whether the Dalai Lama was preparing to withdraw from politics, his secretary Chhime Chhoekyapa said "It's already happening" and pointed to evidence that the Dalai Lama has delegated many political functions to others, such as the prime minister in the government-in-exile. "He will always guide the Tibetans, but he may not be the political leader.”

     The speaker of the Tibetan parliament-in-exile Karma Chophel said:  "For years we have pursued a middle way and His Holiness himself has said it has not produced results… Anything can be said at this meeting.“ The coming conference is expected to feature discussion regarding not only political succession, but also future strategies as the exile community approaches March 10, the 50th anniversary of the abortive Tibetan revolt that triggered the Dalai Lama’s flight into exile.