The revelation in today's New York Times that a brother of Afghan president Hamid Karzai, Ahmed Wali Karzai, has been receiving regular payments for years from the CIA is sort of like reporting that the Pope is Catholic and that bears relieve themselves in the woods. While CIA spokesman Paul Gimigliano said that the CIA does not comment on "these kinds of allegations," other current and former U.S. government officials say that nobody should be the slightest bit surprised to learn that the U.S. government has been paying for the goodwill of Karzai's brother—and likely that of other (perhaps many other) members of the Afghan president's circle. Nor, say the officials, should anyone be surprised that such Afghan personalities might have ties to the local opium trade, as the Times alleges Ahmed Wali Karzai does (with somewhat less certainty than its assertions regarding CIA payments). If anything, what is somewhat surprising is that U.S. officials say that the available evidence suggests that Hamid Karzai himself is relatively "clean." One U.S. official who has recently been looking into Afghan corruption said that President Karzai has filed an official disclosure listing his only wealth as about $10,000 worth of clothing and jewelry. While there is no way to verify this information, the official and another former U.S. official said that Hamid Karzai's reputation is relatively free of the allegations of corruption that have been laid against his brother. Nonetheless, the officials say the Afghan president does have wealthy friends and supporters who might give him a helping hand materially or financially if and when he needs it. Ahmed Wali told the Times that while he cooperated with U.S. military and civilian officials, he did not take money from the CIA and is not involved in the drug trade.

While few among the Washington cognoscenti are questioning the Times's allegations, the story has set off a round of speculation about why it surfaced now, who might have leaked it, and for what reason. Despite strong suspicions to the contrary, early indications are that the story was not deliberately leaked by the Obama administration or its political proxies as part of some clandestine campaign to undermine politically besieged Hamid Karzai's prospects in an anticipated presidential runoff election. Whatever the intent behind the disclosures, however, they're certainly another wild card in an Afghan political outlook that by the day appears more uncertain and fraught.