Newsweek
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Feb 9, 2010 01:07 PM
By Mark Hosenball and Katie Paul
If ever there were a time for Iranian chest-thumping, it would be
now. The 31st anniversary of the regime's Islamic Revolution is less
than a week away, but authorities anticipate
the celebrations will be marred by a new round of anti-government
protests led by opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. Adding fuel to
the fire, Monday brought news that senior officials from Russia had
joined with their counterparts in the United States and France in
pressing for tougher sanctions against Iran, bringing the U.N. Security
Council an important step closer to implementing a sanctions program.
For their part, the leaders of the Islamic Republic are stepping up
their rhetoric. Iran's defense minister announced on Monday that the
military had conducted successful tests on new drones and air defenses.
The same day, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told
a group of Iranian air force personnel that the Iranian nation will
"punch the arrogance" of Western powers on Thursday, the day of the
anniversary, "in a way that will leave them stunned."
Iran analysts are scrambling to figure out how the mysterious
"punch" might land. For now, most are scratching their heads. More
likely than not, they say, the whole incident consists of more huffing
and puffing than real brinksmanship. “The Iranians are trouble to be
sure, but they’re also known to exaggerate their capabilities,
especially when it comes to their military and nuclear programs," said
one U.S. counterterrorism official. "They have multiple incentives to
hype the facts—to try to deter a potential attack from abroad, to
strike a better bargain in international negotiations, or to stoke
nationalism at home."
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