Sharon Begley
|
Oct 25, 2007 10:57 AM
I'm pretty conservative about attributing weird weather and other
climate anomalies to global warming: all you can say is that a
record-setting hot October, or a string of 70-degree days in January in
New York, is consistent with what a greenhouse world would be like. But
when scientists go on record with a specific prediction of how climate
change will play out, and when it indeed plays out that way, attention
must be paid.
Last year, a study in the journal Science
found that "large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in
the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire
durations, and longer wildfire seasons." The greatest increases were in
forests of the Northern Rockies, but was seen throughout the west The
pattern of western fires matched what would be expected not from changes in land use--mostly logging and ranching--but from climate change.
Specifically, a warmer world caused by the accumulation of
heat-trapping greenhouse gases produces alternating deluges and
droughts. The extra heat causes greater evaporation, but the water
vapor remains in the atmosphere longer, or travels farther, before
falling--in buckets. The result is alternating wet and dry years. In
wet years, vegetation grows like mad. In drought years, that vegetation
becomes tinder, exactly what southern California is now
experiencing. As the scientists said, "an increased incidence of large,
high-severity fires may be due to a combination of extreme droughts and
overabundant fuels."
And no, it's not just a matter of media attention or the ubiquity of
fire video on YouTube. The scientists found that the frequency of
wildfires beginning in the mid-1980s was nearly four times that of 1970
to 1986, "and the total area burned by these fires was more than six
and a half times its previous level." It's real, and it's going to
continue.
. . . and get worse.
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