Memo to everyone who doesn’t care about climate change—you know who
you are—because you figure 1) more heat waves? I have A.C.; 2) rising
sea levels? I don’t live in Bangladesh, and I have enough money to keep
rebuilding the sea walls around my weekend place; 3) more droughts and
floods, causing food shortages? I won’t have any problem buying
whatever I need. Scientists have identified consequences of climate
change that you won’t be able to buy your way out of: the worst
airplane delays you can imagine.
I’ve long thought that Americans don’t really care all that much
about climate change because they figure its worst impacts will hit
other people. In particular,the poor (Hurricane Katrina, anyone?). But a report by the National Research Council released today on how climate change will affect transportation points out that this is one environmental mess that you won’t be able to buy your way out of.
The biggest impact of climate change on transportation will be
flooding of roads, railways and airport runways in coastal areas
because of rising sea levels and storm surges (which will be more
intense as a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture). Bridges and roads
built to withstand the proverbial “100-year storm” will face such
monsters more frequently, meaning there will likely be more
catastrophes like bridges being washed away, as happened to the U.S. 90 Bridge
after Katrina. Planning any scenic coastal drives? An estimated 60,000
miles of coastal highways are subject to storm flooding even today, and
that will rise as storm intensity and sea levels do. Even better: many
of these are the same highways that are supposed to serve as hurricane
evacuation routes!
Remember the Midwest floods of 1993, which inundated towns, and
transportation routes along 500 miles of the Mississippi and Missouri
river systems? Get used to it. Major east–west traffic was halted for
about six weeks from St. Louis west to Kansas City and north to
Chicago, the report recounts, affecting one-quarter of all U.S. freight
to or from the flooded region. But where the climate is projected to
dry out, such as in watersheds supplying the St. Lawrence Seaway, the
Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest river system, lower water levels will
leave ships high and dry, like during the drought of 1988, when barges
were stranded all along the Mississippi.
Do you like being stranded at work? Climate change will bring more
24-hour rainstorms such as the one that slammed Chicago and its suburbs
in July 1996, causing huge travel delays on metro highways and
railroads and damaging streets and bridges. “Commuters were unable to
reach Chicago for up to 3 days,” the NRC report notes, “and more than
300 freight trains were delayed or rerouted.”
Now, about those airport delays. Heat extremes and heat waves will
keep getting more intense, longer and more frequent. By 2032, the
chance of five summer days in Dallas being at or above 110 o
F. will be 5 percent, for instance, up from 2 percent today, and will
be 25 percent in 50 years. Good news: airports won’t have as many days
when they need to de-ice planes. Bad news: because hotter air is less
dense than cooler air, extreme heat reduces aircraft lift, as I explained in a recent column.
Concludes the NRC, “If runways are not sufficiently long for large
aircraft to build up enough speed to generate lift, aircraft weight
must be reduced or some flights cancelled altogether. Thus, increases
in extreme heat are likely to result in payload restrictions, flight
cancellations, and service disruptions at affected airports.”