Tracy McNicoll
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Jun 11, 2007 06:52 PM
Was it only six weeks ago that political suspense reigned in Paris
cafes? Could conservative Nicolas Sarkozy really win the nation's
highest office? People wondered if he might be thwarted by the
Socialists' comely comer, Segolene Royal. Or perhaps even trumped by
the engaging centrist François Bayrou? Well, no. And since Sarko's
triumph on May 6, this take-charge kind of guy has, yes, taken charge.
In the first round of legislative elections yesterday, his UMP party
steamrollered much of the opposition and it looks very likely to finish
the job in runoffs next Sunday. So here's a prediction for the next
five years of French politics: all-Sarko all the time.
Of the 577-member National Assembly, a record 110 candidates were
elected outright last night by winning more than 50 percent of the vote
in the first round. Of those, 98 are from Sarkozy's UMP party. Only one
is a Socialist. Projections for next Sunday are wide-ranging, but all
forecast a Sarko landslide. With between 383 and 501 seats for the
right (compared to 60 to 185 for the left), this will be the first time
since 1978 that power in parliament won't have changed hands from one
election to the next.
As Sarkozy racked up incredibly high poll numbers over the past
month (a run of proposed tax breaks apparently expunging memories of
the polarizing, riot-inspiring figure he'd been portrayed as only weeks
before), his parliamentary victory took on the air of fait accompli.
Indeed, while last month's presidential elections set a record for
voter turnout (nearly 84 percent), many registered voters took
yesterday off like any other sunny Sunday in June "setting a record for
voter abstention (39.5 percent).
In fairness to those absentees, the Socialists looked like they'd
taken a hike, too. Acrimonious squabbling among contenders for party
leadership began live on television minutes after Sarkozy's election
was announced, and the current Party SecretaryFrançois Hollande soon stopped talking victory and started warning against the dangers if the left faced a "crushing" defeat.
In the event, the Socialists themselves might have done worse
yesterday. The party's 24.7 percent of the vote is actually better than
it did in the first rounds of the two previous legislative elections.
But the minor left-wing parties that used to fall into line behind the
Socialists did miserably, so the left as a whole is likely to be
insignificant on the floor of the National Assembly.
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