Now that Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 are both on the market, publishers, developers, analysts and gamers are trying to figure out one thing: which of these two powerhouses is going to come out on top? (We'll address the Wii separately.) Microsoft has an early lead thanks to its yearlong head start. But is that enough to be the winner when all is said and done? Maybe not.

Though Microsoft has already come down from its original claim that it would sell 10 million XBox 360 units before Sony shipped a single PS3 (the company now says it's confident it will sell 10 million units by the end of the year),--the fact remains that Microsoft has only sold through to consumers a little over 3 million units in North America, 1.4 million units in Europe/PAL, and 400,000 units in Japan and other regions. In its first 11 months on the market in North America, as Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel observed in a recent report, the 360 has only moved more than 300,000 units once--during its launch month of November 2005. By contrast, the standard-setting PS2 dropped below 300,000 units only once during its first 17 months on the market.

Though Microsoft remains committed to its goal, to hit the 10 million mark by December 31, the company must, in the face of all of the PS3 and Wii hype, convince gamers to purchase 5 million Xbox 360s during the next two months. And they have to accomplish this without the benefit of Halo 3, which won't ship until sometime in 2007. "Frankly, we never believed that number," says Sony Computer Entertainment America's vice president of marketing Peter Dille of Microsoft's shifting target. "But I think we were the only ones that didn't. How can they possibly get to 10 million based on their run rate when they're not even outselling the original Xbox?"

Good question. Considering that 65-70 percent of Xbox 360's global sales take place in North America, with only a dwindling contribution from Japan, it's all but certain that Microsoft's stated goal is out of reach. The most optimistic analyst, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, originally predicted that Microsoft would sell 400,000 units in October. The actual figure? 218,000. Nevertheless, Pachter stands by his Xbox 360 forecasts for November (750,000-1 million) and December (1.5 million-2 million), and possibly more if gamers who can't find a PS3 or a Wii decide to substitute a 360.

At the aforementioned 70 percent ratio of North American sales to overseas sales, that figure would get Microsoft fairly close to its goal. But based on past data, it seems unlikely. Elevation Partners managing director John Riccitiello, who was previously the president of Electronic Arts, quickly did the math in his head during an interview with Level Up and predicted that based on historical trends, Microsoft would only get to around 8 million units by the end of this year. "They're going to need a marketing event to hit that number," he says.

Next: Publishers try to explain why strong sales of 360 games haven't boosted the hardware.