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Posted Wednesday, November 29, 2006 10:50 PM

Loot: The Larry Probst Interview, Part II

N'Gai Croal

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In Part I of our three-part interview with Electronic Arts CEO Larry Probst, he discussed the supply challenges facing Sony, the Xbox 360's soft sales, and why EA will be more aggressive in its support of the Wii. Here in Part II, Probst talks about why PlayStation Portable fans shouldn't expect to see any original games from EA, the parallels between EA's Spore and Blizzard's monster hit World of Warcraft, and why he's got his eye on Nintendo:

If you look at the short history of Xbox 360 software so far, Call of Duty 2 was very strong out of the gate last year. In 2006, you had Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter and Fight Night Round 3 do well, followed by The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion. You had Dead Rising and Saints Row in August--

And Madden.

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--exactly. So there have been some very strong software sales, but it simply hasn't goosed the hardware sales. From what I'm hearing internally at Microsoft and externally from other publishers, it seems that even Gears of War, which is itself selling extremely well, is not having a commensurate effect on Xbox 360 itself. Why isn't the software driving the hardware?

I don't know that I have a specific reason. I would describe the 360 hardware sales as steady. I think your assessment that none of these titles have spiked the hardware sales is correct. But regardless, they're going to end up selling between four and five million units of hardware in North America this year, somewhere in the middle of that range. That's a respectable second year. They'll finish the year with an installed base of more than five million units in North America. They're starting to build some momentum in Europe. So I think they've done reasonably well. We'd like to see them selling more. But the sales have been steady on that platform.

EA Chief Creative Officer Bing Gordon told me recently that EA really wants to make big original games for PSP, but that the installed base isn't big enough--

On what?

On PSP. But he says that the installed base isn't big enough to support those games on the scale that EA would like. Since publishers are fond of saying that "Software drives hardware," isn't the onus on companies like EA to put out the big original games that will drive up the PSP unit sales? Or are there steps that Sony needs to take in order to drive up the installed base so that you feel comfortable putting out those big, original games?

I'm not so sure that I agree with the premise that we're strategically focused on building original product for the PSP. That's news to me. It's more likely that we would target platforms like the PS3, Xbox 360 or Nintendo Wii if we had an original in mind. Our strategy on PSP has typically been to take the franchises that we build on other platforms and exploit them on the PSP. I think the price point needs to be lower, and I think you're going to see that next year, along with a different form factor.

American Technology Research analyst P.J. McNealy has written that Sony will release two new models next year: one with eight gigabytes of built-in flash memory, and another with a built-in hard drive. Nothing has been said about the form factor, but you've got to assume that they're considering changing it. Do any of these changes sound as though they'll move the needle on PSP sales?

I think what moves the needle is a new form factor that's smaller than the existing unit, at a lower price, and hopefully that price is $100 lower. This is pure speculation, we don't know what Sony's plans are. But it would not be hugely surprising if they had that lower priced unit at $149 and then a more fully-featured upscale unit that retails at $249 or $299. Again, that's pure speculation. We don't have any inside information on that.

There's probably a good deal of overlap between the PSP's early adopters and the PS2's early adopters. Some of them have probably bought a 360, and some are now buying the PS3 and the Wii. If your strategy is to bring the same brands over to PSP, there seems me to be a problem with that approach. The PSP's graphics aren't as good as those on PS3, 360 or Wii. The PSP only has one analog stick instead of two. So what's the compelling argument for a consumer to buy the PSP version, instead of or in addition to the console versions, when it's the same game, but somewhat compromised?

Portability. I would agree with you that if someone owns Madden on multiple systems already, they're less likely to buy it on PSP. It's true. If you've got Madden on PS2 and Xbox 360, how likely are you to buy it on PSP?

There have only been a handful of big hits on the PSP so far: the first Need for Speed, the first Madden, Twisted Metal, Untold Legends and SOCOM Fireteam Bravo. The biggest one was Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories, which is a brand extension, but it was exclusive to PSP for several months. What is it going to take for EA to get big hits on PSP?

If you're talking about a breakout hit, it would probably have to be something that's original or unique to that platform. Again, that is not the strategy for us currently. We're interested in interoperability between PSP and Sony's other platforms, and if we can do something along those lines, that would be helpful.

Which single forthcoming EA game are you most excited about, and why?

Spore. I think Spore can turn into a franchise that's every bit as valuable and significant as The Sims. We think about Spore as having the potential to be our World of Warcraft.

Anything at [EA's massively multiplayer online game studio] EA Mythic that has the potential to be your next World of Warcraft?

They're building a product utilizing the Warhammer license. We're very encouraged by what we've seen so far. We think it's got terrific potential once it's finished and launched. Is it going to be a World of Warcraft? That's unlikely. World of Warcraft's up to about 7 million subscribers these days, I don't think anything else has gotten much past 500,000. So if we can put Warhammer Online out there and get to 500,000 subscribers or beyond, that would be a pretty successful product for us. It's tracking really well.

Which of your competitors' upcoming games are you most looking forward to?

[Laughs] Am I looking forward to?

Or interested in.

I think it's always interesting to watch Nintendo. They consistently do things that are unique, innovative, unexpected. It'll be fun to watch what they have in the pipeline for Wii and for DS.

Part III: Probst defends microtransactions and FIFA 07. For Part I, click here.

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