N'Gai Croal
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May 21, 2007 01:00 PM
One of the cherished traditions for people in and around the North American videogame industry is the mid-to-late month release of the previous month's sales figures for both hardware and software. Much like Hollywood with the weekend box office or the music industry with SoundScan, this data, compiled by the Port Washington, NY-based NPD Group, is the subject of much scrutiny, speculation and analysis as everyone tries to figure out What It All Means.
Having engaged in many phone, email and IM back-and-forths with various people over the NPDs, as they're generally referred to, we've decided to bring some of those often unheard discussions to light with our newest occasional feature, Monday Morning Quarterback. Our first participant, and hopefully a regular, if his schedule permits, is the Game Head himself, Geoff Keighley. We profiled the prolific Keighley last year, and we're glad to have him aboard to kick things off, pitting his BlackBerry-fueled insights against our Palm-enabled observations. Some excerpts:
N'Gai Croal: If, having suffered a $2 billion loss during its last fiscal year, Sony is not willing to lop at least $100 off the price of the PS3--and you're correct that a price drop alone is unlikely to move the needle enough--that leaves the company's first party operation and a handful of remaining third party exclusives to shoulder the burden. But great games take time to make, and it's unlikely that such lookers as White Knight Story, Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots and Final Fantasy XIII will be ready by the end of 2007. (SOCOM: Confrontation will get some PS2 dead-enders to upgrade, but the PS3's $599 price tag will remain an inhibitor.) And without potential killer apps on that scale, Sony will more or less be forced to cede 2007 to the Xbox 360 until both a price cut and better software manifest themselves.
Geoff Keighley: To keep with the football analogies, I wonder how Sony can even hope to score a first down with the PS3 in the next few months. After I sent you my last e-mail, SCEA [Sony Computer Entertainment America] released a statement that blamed poor PS3 sales in April on a lack of compelling software. No argument here. I was, however, puzzled by Sony's claim (hope?) that sales will soon pick up because 15 exclusive first party titles are due out over the next year. Lair is coming in July, but beyond that I don't expect any major first party titles until September. And when it comes to third party releases, there's not much due this summer. If MotorStorm couldn't move hardware, I have little hope that Tecmo's Ninja Gaiden Sigma will jumpstart sales. Could we see the PS3 sales numbers continue to creep down over the summer? I wouldn't be surprised. Let's hope Sony delivers a blowout E3 with playable Metal Gear Solid 4, an impressive Killzone demo, and lots more of LittleBigPlanet. After playing LittleBig at Gamer's Day I am now more convinced than ever that it may be Sony's secret weapon this holiday season.
Sit back, strap in, and get ready for a wild ride.
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