There is no more charming weathervane in Democratic politics than New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. There is no bet he won't cover. Last weekend, he made some public comments on the presidential race. He stated the obvious: that whoever has the delegate lead as of this Wednesday morning would be the likely nominee. Well, duh.

The Obama campaign has been claiming that Richardson was about to endorse their man. In fact, after talking a few minutes ago to Richardson's closest political confidant, I can say that that is not true. It wasn't true and isn't true.

Especially now. Richardson is watching TV like the rest of us, and caging exit polls like the rest of us, and he can see the possibility that Sen. Hillary Clinton may win as many as three out of four states tonight.

So the weathervane is moving.

Mike Stratton, Richardson's buddy, told me how his friend would deal with the results--and that is emblematic of party leaders as a whole, I think. If Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas, the race will be wide open, and the leadership will keep a hands-off stance, making no move to try to shut down the race.

If Hillary loses both, Richardson won't necessarily endorse Obama immediately, but he will support an effort to get the New York senator to stand down.

If the Ohio-Texas results are split, Richardson believes that Hillary will have a hard time arguing that she should continue.

Hillary does have one case to make: that she, ironically, is not the "elite" candidate, that she represents white working women, Latinos and blue-color workers. It is the old bedrock of the Democratic Party, and Obama has to answer the question of why he can't win them over in this presidential race.