Ah, omens. There's an image that's been winding through our discussion, of Mark's daughter wandering lost in the desert, and I hope this isn't a foreshadowing of our own casting about for picks....Hmm. Resolutely, I'll plunge ahead. Though I'll bow to your superior ACC knowledge, Devin, I stand by my earlier assessment. If Hansbrough's so tough, let me see him take it strong to the rim, not just bull into the defender, flop and collect the foul. He shots 10 free throws per game, the most in the conference, and that's a big chunk of his scoring that, to my mind, isn't always earned.  

Speaking of omens, did either of you see the latest bit of statistical analysis from Bill James? Over in the Web pages of our corporate sibling, Slate, Mr. Sabermetrics says that 40 years of witnessing the University of Kansas blow out opponents at Allen Fieldhouse left him wondering, basically, at what point on the clock does it become impossible for the losing team to come back? (The subtext here: How much do the Jayhawks have to be up by in the second half before it's safe to bail early and get a head start on the crowds? (Lawrence traffic is murder on game days)). The piece comes with a nifty lead calculator (though: no widget? Basketball fans everywhere could use one of these for their Blackberries); just input the lead, time left to play and which team has the ball, and voilà! You get the chances that your lead is safe. According to James, as far has he's been able to tell, no team has ever lost after having what the calculator says is a safe lead.

Except one. As James notes, 

On March 2, 1974, North Carolina trailed Duke, 86-78, with 17 seconds to play—a safe lead for Duke. Duke had repeated misadventures in in-bounding the basketball and wound up losing the game in overtime. 

Does this tell us something about the future of this tournament? Maybe. I have my doubts, though, mainly because, according to my somewhat less scientifically calculated bracket, Duke and Carolina never get chance to play each other.  The papers in Kansas are giddy over the Jayhawks tournament draw, noting that in 1988 (It's the 20th anniversary of the last Kansas championship!) the Hawks played the first two games in Nebraska, before heading to Detroit, just like this year! Then, of course, unlike this year, Kansas played two Final Four games in what was essentially its home court in Kemper Arena. If only Kansas could get this years contest moved to Kansas City, I'd feel a lot better.

As I would if Danny Manning were 20 pounds lighter, 20 years younger, and on the court instead of charting plays from the bench. If there's one thing that Kansas has lacked over the past few years, it's the transcendent talent who can carry his team. North Carolina has that in Hansbrough. Texas has it in D.J. Augustine, to my mind the best point guard in the college game. So those two are in my Final Four. The other two spots...Devin, I may like Duke more than you in their draw, but I really think that if they can get by a tough Xavier team, they can get by UCLA. So make it Duke, Texas, Carolina and.....Kansas, as the One Team to Rule Them All. There's an omen for you.