The moment I knew Kansas was going to lose to North Carolina came with around seven minutes left in the first half, right after Kansas had just gone up by 28 points. It was then that Billy Packer said "this game is over," and it was then that Kansas started playing like it was, going into a tailspin of offensive fouls, blown dunks and lazy passes that culminated in Russell Robinson jacking up a 1-on-5 three from the corner while the rest of the Hawks were, I believe, talking over the post-game dinner options down on the other end. It was exactly the kind of ragged, sloppy ball you see at the end of blowout games, and the fact that it came when there was still a whole other half to play was, um, problematic to say the least.

It was also the Kansas season in a nutshell. When the Hawks are good, they're very, very good, as ESPN's Andy Glockner demonstrates with some good numbers analysis here. When they're bad, they're—well, you saw it last night.  Which team will show up Monday night against Memphis? Probably both; when Kansas it at its best the offensively the team works through the post, and Memphis is good enough to disrupt that. On the other hand, Memphis is capable of blowing out teams then letting them back in as well; see, for instance, both the Texas and Michigan State games last week.

 Who will win Monday? I'm following both my heart and the good statisticians at Basketball Prospectus, who both make the case for Kansas.