Politics is a funny old business. Britain just experienced its first run on a bank in decades, with depositors queueing up by the hundreds to pull their money out of Northern Rock, an institution that specializes in home mortgages and faced severe liquidity problems in the midst of the global credit crunch. That in turn got Britons -- especially Londoners, who are sitting on some of the most expensive real estate in the world -- worrying about a downturn, if not a bust, in the housing market. Meanwhile, the fiscally prudent started wailing about the deplorable state of savings generally in Britain, where consumerism has reached American levels (why save when you can borrow?). Surely all this spells trouble for Gordon Brown as he nears the fourth month of his prime ministership?
Apparently not. It may not last, but the Iron Chancellor has assumed the Teflon mantle once worn -- eons ago, it now seems -- by his predecessor, Tony Blair. Two polls out today make the point. In the Guardian, a poll shows the Brown-led Labour Party up, by one percent, to 40 percent. Another survey, in the Times of London, demonstrates the ability of potential voters to see through the blame game that politicians often engage in when there's bad economic news. Who's to blame for Northern Rock? Only 20 percent of those surveyed think the Brown government should get "a great deal" of the blame. (Seventy-six percent place most or some of the blame where it belongs, on the problematic U.S. mortgage market.) True, trust in Brown and his chancellor, Alistair Darling, dipped by five percent compared to a month ago, according to the Times poll. But trust in the leadership of the opposition Conservative Party dropped by nine percent -- so no big worries there for Brown & Co.
At least not yet. If the unease about the British economy deepens in coming months, Brown is sure to pay a big penalty. The solidity of his reputation as a leader rests largely his stewardship of a decade of unprecedented British prosperity. For the time being, Britons are too busy spending to give Brown a hard, second look. But the time may come, and if it does, Brown will face a supremely testing time. If he stumbles badly, the economy could do for him what Iraq did for Blair -- who, after all, seemed a master of geopolitical expertise until the American-led war turned into a debacle.