He won't. Which is to say British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will not call a snap election for the autumn after less than four months in office despite the current swirl of rumors and speculation. Hedge: nothing in politics is certain -- but I really don't think a precipitious election makes sense. More importantly, Brown's inner circle, and Brown himself, don't think it makes sense. One way or the other, the best clue to Brown's thinking is likely to come later today when he addresses the annual Labour Party Conference at the rain-and-wind-swept British seaside so-called resort of Bournemouth when he gives his first big speech as party leader and PM.

The argument in favor of calling an election is strong. Brown has won over important chunks of the electorate with his no-nonsense demeanor, his determined nudging of his party toward the center and his being as unlike his predecessor, Tony Blair, as possible. Unlike prior to June 27, when he took office, Brown is the preferred choice for prime minister over Conservative opposition leader David Cameron by 55 to 36 percent, according to a Populus poll for the Times of London. With an aplomb that has surprised some of his detractors in the Labour Party, Brown has not only weathered a series of crises -- from a terror plot to an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in British cattle to a credit-crunch banking emergency -- but benefited from his handling of them. All of which suggests his party would win at the polls.

The argument against calling a snap election is, however, even stronger. First of all, although Brown could argue that he was seeking his own post-Blair mandate to govern from the British people, it would look cynical and opportunistic to go the polls after so little time in office. Secondly, Brown is better served by looking like he's more serious about about governing (having sat through ten years of Blair waiting for this moment) than about politicking. Third, there's no sign that Cameron is on the brink of a miraculous political turnaround and therefore no compelling reason for Labour to jump the gun. Finally, there's Brown's cautious nature; people who know him say it's just not like him to rush headlong into an election before his party's finances and grass-roots organization are in better shape.

Then again, Brown has surprised us before and if he wants to surprise us anew... But let's not go there.