Judging by all the negative ink on biofuels lately - they're too expensive, energy inefficient, not so green, or so we're told - you'd think the rush to rescue the world from sky-fouling fossil fuels is a sham. That would be a shame. If there's any truth to the latest buzz out on what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will say next month when it weighs in with another major report on the state of the planet, then we're already cooked.

Or so says Tim Flannery, the Australian scientist and author of "The Weathermakers" who has become the rock star of climate scholars. Though not a member of the climate panel, Flannery pored over the official numbers recently and came away shaken.

Speaking to Australian Broadcasting Corporation's Lateline, on Oct. 9, he said that the forthcoming panel report will show that the earth's atmosphere has already passed the danger zone for the levels of gases which are driving planetary climate change. In fact, we passed the threshold two years ago - a decade earlier than had been predicted - when, thanks to acclerated burning of fossil fuels, the concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane reached 455 parts per million.

That's the level that scientists say will bring on at least a two degree centigrade (3.6 farenheit) hike in averagle global temperatures, after which all manner of environmental havoc is likely. Higher ocean temperatures, for instance, will not only hasten the melting of polar ice sheets and dangerously lift sea levels, but likely provoke megadroughts and wildfires in many of the world's rainforests.

What's causing the emissions to spike? Prosperity, says Flannery. Not just in China and India; economic growth has been the rule in many nations. And what's driving the wheels of progress? Mostly those expensive, inefficient, and not so green fossil fuels. In fact, instead of redcuing their earth-baking greenhouse gas emissions, the fastest growing nations in the developed and developing world alike are "recarbonizing," as energy wonks put it, thanks to the usual suspects: coal and oil.

There's been no official comment so far from IPCC insiders. Maybe they're  trying to catch their breath.

Turkey argued that if Congress passed the bill, Turkey would excercise its “strategic leverage.” That’s a common Turkish argument with all foreigners – but now it's being put to the test. What does Turkey’s strategic leverage mean – or is it just verbiage? The government is under huge pressure to do something to show its disapproval. But already Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be backpedaling. He told CNN Turk last night that “political realities do not permit sentimentalism” and that “the consequesnce of any action should be carefully studied in the light of the common interests and links we have with the US.”

İf the Turks really wanted to hit the Americans where it hurt, they could, for instance, prohibit Turkish airspace to US military flights en route to Iraq. They could limit use of Incirlik air base, a major US Air Force hub for the region. And they could cut truck traffic between Turkey and Iraq, which accounts for 70 per cent of the Coalition’s total supplies.

Its unlikely that any such serious measures are on the cards, if only because Turkey doesn't yet want to risk a complete alieniation fron the US, and the dramatic shift of its pro-Western strategy that would entail. At the same time, a kind of turning point has been reached. Ankara is deeply disappoınted over the US failure to make good on repeated promises to rein in the Iraq-based PKK Kurdish separatists. Turkey has decided to tackle the insurgents themselves; next week the government will present a bill to parliament authorizing a cross-border incursion into Iraq.

It will almost certainly be passed. Erdogan says he wants the authorization in his pocket but will not use it until after the [Iraq] Neighbors Summit on Nov 3 in Istanbul, and will likely also hold off until after a scheduled trip to Washington to meet Bush the week after.

In the meantime Turkey has withdrawn its Ambassador from Washington, and cancelled other official visits. Congressman Brad Sherman (D-Calif) predicted last night that the only consequences of the genocide bill would be “angry words from Ankara, and then it will be over” – angering the Turks no end. But the hope is that he’s right – for Turkey’s sake, and America’s.