The ouster of experienced nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani would seem to favor President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but Iranian politics is more complicated than that, reports Newsweek's Seth Colter Walls:

Is Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad being set up for a fall by the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? The question is being considered by some regional experts in the wake of this month’s administrative shuffle in Iran, which saw experienced nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani thrown over in favor of a harder-line Ahmadinejad ally.

Since all such moves require Khamenei’s tacit approval, initial reactions tended to follow the conventional wisdom about Ahmadinejad’s presidency thus far: namely, that his favor in Khamenei’s eyes, and resultant power, greatly exceeds that of his reformist predecessor, Mohammad Khatami.

Vali Nasr, author of “The Shia Revival” and an expert on democracy in the Islamic world, offers another interpretation that's not so favorable to Ahmadinejad. "Ahmadinejad is being given enough rope to hang himself with if he fails to bring a good result with the nuclear issue," says Nasr.

Just as Ahmadinejad got his proposed budget passed, yet has failed to improve Iran’s sputtering economy, Nasr says Khamenei is happy to let Ahmadinejad take responsibility by giving him free bureaucratic reign over issues such as the nuclear negotiator’s post. If either Tehran’s tenuous relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency or Russia’s cautious support for Iran’s civilian nuclear program take a downturn before parliamentary elections next spring, voters will know whom to retaliate against. (In the event reformists retake the parliament, Ahmadinejad would likely face a fateful no-confidence vote.)

Judging by the content of their editorial pages, Iran’s reformists clearly sense the opening. Putting the president on notice that an accountability moment is in the offing, an Oct. 22 commentary in the reformist daily E’temad stated: “The [Ahmadinejad] government currently has more control ... than when it first came to power—and it is evident it should equally be answerable for this level of control.” If things go badly and Ahmadinejad is stuck with sole blame, the president may well wind up wishing he’d had some of that Khatami-era interference from the Ayatollah. After all, in the Islamic Republic, sometimes a little clerical guidance can be a blessing.