Christian Caryl
|
Aug 17, 2007 01:21 PM
--With B.J. Lee
Surely it can't be a bad thing for the leaders of the two Koreas
to get together for a chat. North Korea's Dear Leader Kim Jong Il and
South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun have a lot to talk about when they
get together for a summit at the end of this month. Optimists hope the
meeting will boost efforts to persuade the North to get rid of its
nukes. President Roh is said to be contemplating a huge program of
economic aid as a reward to Pyongyang for shutting down its nuclear
reactor last month.
Members of South Korea's ruling party -
that's right, Roh's buddies - were especially upbeat. Small wonder. If
there's one thing that can help the chances of their beleaguered party,
it's a high-profile summit with the North. Most ordinary South Koreans
want to see relations between their government and its Northern
counterpart stay as warm as possible. Cozying up to the North is so
popular with voters these days that Seoul politicians have been known
to use talks with Kim as a way to boost their own electoral chances.
Political junkies coined the phrase "North Wind" to describe the
political benefits of inter-Korean diplomacy.
President Roh isn't
up for re-election, but he's eager to help his political allies on the
Left close the gap with the conservative opposition, which is still way
ahead in the polls leading up to South Korea's presidential election at
the end of this year. Roh may be betting that schmoozing with Kim
Jong-Il offers his best hope of evening the odds. Plus a bit of
statesmanship could do wonders for the legacy of Roh's tarnished
presidency. (Right now his approval ratings are under 20%.)
There's
just one problem with this theory. Precisely because he's a lame duck
Roh may find it hard to win any concessions from Kim. Anything agreed
upon may have to be implemented by Roh's successor - and that doesn't
look very likely if the next president turns out to be a member of the
conservative party that appears to be poised for victory as things
stand now. There are also worries about the striking haste with which
the whole meeting has been arranged. The government in Seoul had
already admitted, surprisingly enough, that both parties have yet to
agree on an agenda.
But there's an even bigger concern that's
being expressed by conservatives in Seoul as well as Korea-watchers in
Washington. Is it really a good idea to give Pyongyang a windfall of
this magnitude when the process of dismantling the North's nukes has
only just gotten under way? Roh's government is already talking about
investing billions of dollars in the North's infrastructure, part of
what Roh calls a "new Marshall Plan" for Kim's devastated economy. Yet
all this is being promised up front, even though the North still has a
long way to go to fulfill the disarmament agreement signed at the
Six-Party Talks earlier this year. Why should the North go to the
trouble of revealing the rest of its weapons programs, for example,
when it's going to get so many goodies regardless? To be sure, it's
always a good idea to engage in dialogue - as long as you don't end up
giving away the store when you do. President Roh might want to keep
that in mind.
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