Why It Matters : Kenya's Odinga Calls For Protests--To What End?

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Kenya's Odinga Calls For Protests--To What End?

Silvia Spring

It's hard to tell what Raila Odinga was thinking yesterday when he called for a fresh round of protests in Kenya. Only hours earlier, the leader of the country's opposition party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), had announced that instead of further demonstrations, his new strategy would be to boycott companies associated with President Mwai Kibaki's party, which he accuses of rigging the Dec 27 presidential election. Last week's three days of ODM demonstrations were not as bad as many feared they would be. On Wednesday, Odinga's supporters formed groups of no more than a hundred in the capital; by Friday, ODM's presence on the streets was non-existent, largely due to the substantial police presence.

So then what's the point of more demonstrations? Besides the fact that, as ODM's director of communications recently told me, "Raila loves rallies," most likely, Odinga's aim at this point is simply to stay in the news. The image of CNN's Zain Verjee getting shot in the back by a tear gas canister on Wednesday, combined with reports of police brutality against unarmed civilians, is exactly the kind of coverage he hopes will encourage international pressure on Kibaki. Even his short-lived (and seemingly pointless) announcement that he would turn his focus to sabotaging Kibaki economically earned him a day of newspaper headlines. What he wants now is not to negotiate a peace agreement or compromise but a re-run of elections. (Kibaki has shown no indication he is even willing to consider this.) To Odinga's delight, neither Britain nor the U.S. has yet recognized Kibaki's government, and the European Union parliament has asked its members to suspend budgetary aid to the country—totalling $560 million over the next five years—until the conflict is resolved. But such publicity does not come cost-free for Kenyans. Odinga's main support comes from the poor—roughly half the county's population—but he doesn't appear to be able to control them. Political rallies seem easily to turn into opportunities for gangs to loot businesses and harass civilians. Under Kenya law, such protests are illegal, and the police are authorized to use force in the form of tear gar and even live rounds to break them up. At least 21 were killed during last week's protests.

In the Nairobi slum of Kibera, home to around 1 million people, residents appear tired of the clashes. When Raila drove through to wave at supporters yesterday, many hid in their homes, afraid his presence might spark further fracas. Local resident Mary Kitamu, a round-faced woman with hair cut short to her ears, told me that even though she voted for Odinga, she believes the protests he is now calling for now are no good. "Rallies should be stopped," she says. "They only lead to more vandalism."Echoing a similar sentiment, a BBC World Service listener recently sent an SMS message to the station quoting a Kenyan saying: when two bulls fight, it is only the grass that suffers. Kenyans may not be willing to suffer indefinitely. At some point soon, both Odinga and Kibaki will have to stop clashing in front of the cameras and start negotiating.

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