By Akiko Kashiwagi

As we Japanese watch the U.S. presidential candidates enthusiastically campaigning with promises of "change", it is hard not to compare what's going on in U.S politics with what's going on in Japan. Here, politics is at a standstill, and there doesn't seem to be a way out. Unlike American youth, who are excited about Barack Obama's hopeful message, young people in Japan find it hard to hope for the better. "It's like 2 or 3 am. It's still dark," says a young parliamentary aide about the gloomy mood on Japan's Capitol Hill.   

The Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda came to power last September backed by factions including that of the powerful road-construction industry. Six month later, it looks as if we have gone back to the pre-Koizumi era, watching politicians call for more roads using gasoline taxes. This faction had been robbed of their influence under the Koizumi administration, but now they are back and so are the old-style politics.
This isn't the only thing contributing to the gridlock.  With the opposition party in control of the Upper House and determined to block nearly every bill, nothing gets decided. Fukuda's popularity has fallen to 30 percent, and his back is to the wall. Some analysts say his failure to appoint a shoo-in Bank of Japan Governor is a sign that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is losing power and the day of a change in regime is drawing near. Under Koizumi, who promoted the structural reforms, the LDP succeeded in regaining its popularity from among floaters. But his successors are not so successful. They lack his charisma and his penchant for reform. Fukuda is seen as representing the status quo.
Ironically, the opposition party is also seen as unconstructive. It is becoming even less popular than the ruling party. This is not exactly what many expected to see when the opposition party won a landmark victory in the upper house elections last summer.  Now neither party looks attractive. A sense of claustrophobia has set in.

At a time like this, where is the Japanese Obama? We have no shortage of young, ambitious politicians who call for pension reforms, reducing the wealth gap and fiscal discipline. But it doesn't seem we'll get one anytime soon. "The problem is that we are not seeing any new political movement rising" despite the stalemate, says Takahiro Suzuki of Think Tank 2005. That's because most politicians owe their incumbencies to the existing political system, making it enormously difficult for them to act independently or form a new party, he says. In addition, seniority counts for a lot in Japanese politics. Political watchers regretfully say that the downfall of Shinzo Abe, the youngest post-war Prime Minister, has virtually killed chances of a generational shift in political leadership for years. In the end, he seemed to demonstrate that youth is equivalent to inexperience.  Amid the gridlock and the falling approval rating, rank and file politicians from both parties seem increasingly frustrated.  

No doubt the next elections are crucial for Japan.  The decision when to call an election is Prime Minister Fukuda's. He has a big job ahead of him.