By Barbie Nadeau
Italians are dusting off their antiwar banners, which typically means one thing: George W. Bush is coming to town. The U.S. president will be in Italy from Wednesday evening through Friday morning as part of a one-week trip to Europe. While in Rome he will meet with Italy’s president, its prime minister and Pope Benedict XVI. He will also likely be dodging the thousands of protesters who are planning to block his motorcade and fill the piazzas.
And even though he’s now in the lame-duck phase of his presidency, his visit here could generate some real—and unwelcome—news for pacifist Italians. Topping the agenda with Italy’s new-again prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, who once called himself “George Bush’s best friend,” is bulking up Italy’s troop presence in Afghanistan. Following France’s pledge of 700 additional soldiers, Bush is reported to be hoping to get Berlusconi to as much as double this country’s 2,600 troops, currently based in Kabul and western Afghanistan. Italy’s Foreign Minister Franco Frattini has already been negotiating changes in NATO’s combat constraints, which he told Italy’s Corriere della Sera would mean more “battlefield flexibility against the Taliban.”
Frattini also indicates that Berlusconi is considering sending Italians back into Iraq. When former prime minister Romano Prodi narrowly knocked Berlusconi out of office back in 2006, Prodi’s first order of business was to bring home the troops that Berlusconi had originally sent to Iraq to support Bush. Prodi left some 50 advisers in Iraq, who have trained thousands of Iraqi police; Berlusconi may send as many as 200 more. Redeployment of larger forces remains a point of speculation, but no one from Berlusconi’s office will confirm or deny any immediate plans. The addition of trainers, however, is very likely, as Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has formally asked Italy to send more. Frattini simply said, “We believe it is important to show the Italian people that we are meeting our responsibilities working with our friends.”
Berlusconi may also speed up the controversial expansion of the Caserma Ederle American military base in the northern city of Vicenza. Back when he was prime minister from 2001 to 2005, he struck a secret deal to expand America’s military presence in Vicenza by authorizing the construction of a new Dal Molin base, which will be America’s largest European military base. The new base is highly contested; protesters have been camping out in tents along the construction site for the last three years. The new base is being constructed less than a mile from Vicenza’s famous Palladio cathedral in the central Piazza dei Signori. American military personnel in Vicenza number around 2,800, most of whom carry out operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Locals worry that these and any additional troops would likely be instrumental in any American military action against Iran, making Italy a potential retaliation target.
What will Italy get in exchange for helping America now instead of waiting to see who wins the White House in November? First, Bush might be able to secure a spot for Italy on the so-called five-plus-one, the group comprising the five permanent U.N. Security Council members, plus Germany. Italy desperately wants a position in this group, which seeks to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Italy’s prospects have been undermined by Germany’s complaints that Italy’s state-run oil and natural gas company Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (ENI) has lucrative contracts with Iran to develop the Darkhovein oil fields along with other trade partnerships with Iran. Bush has already indicated that he will back Italy’s bid to convert the five-plus-one into the five-plus-two. In an interview with RAI television that aired across Italy on June 6, Bush promised his support and said, “Italy can be an effective voice in sending a message to the Iranians, and that you don’t have to choose isolation,” he said. “Italy can be a critical part of that.”
And Bush might also give Berlusconi credibility with the next U.S. president, say Italian political analysts. Berlusconi may be something of a cipher to Barack Obama and John McCain, but pundits here believe that any deal with Bush will give Berlusconi a higher profile with the two White House contenders. “I know him well, I trust him, I like him,” Bush said of Berlusconi on RAI. “I find him to be one of the really interesting world leaders.” Berlusconi must certainly hope that sentiment will last through the next U.S. administration.
