Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez's heralded Bolivarian Revolution is about to undergo a severe test. And to hear if from the pollsters, investors and anyone else who read the tea leaves in Latin America, the hemisphere's ranking Comandante is heading for a drubbing.

This Sunday, Nov. 23, Venezuela will hold regional elections that will be key to the country's--and Chávez's--political future. Some 17 million voters are eligible in balloting that will elect governors in 22 of Venezuela's 23 states, 328 of 335 mayors and more than 200 state legislators. Though the presidency is not up for grabs, Chávez is stumping the country like his career depended on it, inaugurating public works, blitzing the radio waves with pro-government messages, and holding forth from balcony to balcony.

Such hyperactivity is not unusual for El Comandante, a charismatic populist who has ruled with one hand on the microphone and another on Venezuela's purse strings. But given the parlous state of the Venezuelan economy, there is a new edge to the official frenzy.

If the pundits are correct, Sunday's vote will be fractured as never before between Chávez's supporters and foes. Polls project Chávez's candidates will lose in perhaps half the 22 state contests, including the vital industrial heartland of Carabobo, oil-rich Zulia, and right under his nose, in Sucre, which includes the capital of Caracas. Most of the rest of the governor's races are too close to call. That may not sound like a disaster. But for a man used to wading through adoring crowds and leaving his foes choking in the dust, a split decision amounts to a reversal of fortunes.

It's not hard to see why. Chávez's star has been dimming since last December, when he lost a referendum (his first defeat at the ballot box in 12 elections since taking power in 1998) to rewrite the country's constitution with dozens of amendments, including one that would abolish term limits for the presidency. At the same time, economic mismanagement produced high inflation and food shortages, while crime spiked in Caracas. The drop in oil prices also threatens Chávez's generous social programs, all financed from the bounty of PDVSA, the mistreated state oil monopoly.

Don't count Chávez out yet. Though no longer a rock star, he still retains a certain amount of charm among the poorest Venezuelans. He  boasts the support of more than 60 percent of his compatriots. However, 54 percent also say they do not trust him. "This is a very strange situation," says Walter Molano, head of BCP Securities, an emerging markets investment bank. "Venezuelans may like Chávez, but they don't trust him."

No matter how the ballots are counted on Sunday, one outcome is not in question. Both sides will claim victory.