In which Newsweek provides informed rumor-mongering on the hottest names in the Obama Cabinet sweepstakes

By Michael Hirsh

Since the day after Barack Obama’s election Newsweek has run a “Transition Toteboard” giving odds (quite unscientifically derived, we must confess) on the most likely candidates for top Cabinet posts, as well as national security advisor. Up until a few days ago, based on the Beltway buzz, we had John Kerry in the lead for State, followed by an all-male trio: Bill Richardson, Richard Lugar and Richard Holbrooke (the name “Richard,” if anyone cares, comes from Old German meaning “powerful leader”). But a week or so ago another noteworthy Richard -- my Newsweek colleague Richard Wolffe -- who covered the Obama campaign, heard from his sources that we were missing a “big name.” Who could it be? we wondered. There weren’t that many big names out there. Colin Powell? Al Gore? Bill Clinton?

No, Hillary, of course. Doh! The New York senator emerged grinning from a Thursday meeting with the president-elect, and she did not even bother going through the usual motions of denying she had interest in the job, or proclaiming her love for the Senate. While as far as we know Hillary hasn’t been offered the post yet, the sudden news has a lot of heads nodding vigorously around Washington. First, putting Clinton at State would be in keeping with Obama’s Big Tent approach to governing (note his forgiving stance toward McCain ally Joe Lieberman). Second, it would solve a problem the Obama-ites (Obamians? Let’s come up with something) have been increasingly worried about: the lack of women up for major Cabinet posts. And with Bill along (a future Mideast Uber-envoy?) you’d get two secretaries of State for one. Finally it’ll keep Hillary out of the country a lot rather than inside the Beltway plotting for her comeback in 2012 or 2016.

But there are downsides: Hillary can use State as a major power base from which to undermine Obama administration policies she doesn’t agree with (does anyone doubt there’ll be a few?). And to the extent she succeeds as a diplomat, it raises her profile and lowers Obama’s. Note to John Podesta: Maybe put Hillary—and Bill too--on the Supreme Court instead?

Who’s up:

• Hillary Clinton for State (the latest evidence that Obama plans a Big Tent approach; she and her husband are also close to Vice President-elect Joe Biden)
• Chuck Hagel for State (it’s looking more and more like current Defense Secretary Bob Gates—the post Hagel was said to be under consideration for – may be asked to stay on)
•  John Brennan for director of the CIA. (The CIA veteran is leading Obama's transition team on intelligence matters but could get one of the big jobs himself. He has experience in both the agency's most important disciplines, operations and analysis)
• Joan Dempsey for a senior intelligence job, perhaps with the Office of National Intelligence (a former top official at the Defense Intelligence Agency and one of two deputies to George Tenet, Dempsey is believed to have given advice on intelligence issues to the Obama campaign. She's also one of the few women being considered for senior jobs)
• Ray Kelly for Homeland Security (the New York Police commissioner has an impressive record on crime; he ran U.S. Customs under President Clinton;, and most of those operations are now part of Homeland Security)
• William Bratton for Homeland Security (just before the election, the Los Angeles Police chief suggested Osama bin Laden "likely" wanted John McCain to become president)
• Tammy Duckworth for secretary of Veterans Administration (the disabled Iraq war vet from Illinois--also considered a leading candidate to be appointed to Obama's Senate seat – is that state’s veteran affairs chief now. She accompanied the president-elect to a wreath-laying ceremony on Veterans Day)
• Jim Hunt for Education (the former North Carolina governor made aggressive education reform his signature cause while in office; he’s particularly known for his work to boost teacher quality and improve and expand preschool education, both areas of great interest to Obama)
• Colin Powell for Education (a personal passion of the former secretary of State, who endorsed Obama shortly before the election)
• Rich Armitage for some big intel job, possibly including Director of National Intelligence (the Powell protégé and sometime McCain advisor would add even more bipartisan firepower)
• Howard Dean for Health and Human Services (a nice consolation prize for the outgoing head of the Democratic National Committee; Dean has an MD, political connections, selling power and energy. And he was thought an able administrator as governor of Vermont.)
• Tom Daschle for HHS (an early backer of Obama who became his national co-chair, the former Senate Majority leader is popular with senators on both sides of the aisle and is seen as having many of the skills needed to develop bipartisan legislation)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Environmental Protection Agency (the longtime environmental activist – along with his cousin Caroline, a likely candidate for an ambassadorship at the least-- would add just the right touch of Camelot glamour to Obama’s Big Tent).
• Janet Napolitano for Homeland Security (currently a top candidate for attorney general, but as a Democratic governor whose state is on the Mexican border, she’d be a natural for this job too)
• Andrew Liveris for Energy (the CEO of Dow Chemical has been praised for taking an old-fashioned chemical company into the green 21st century)

Who’s down:

• John Kerry for State (once considered the top contender, he’s said to want it too bad, and some inside the Obama transition team question whether he has the management skills)
• Larry Summers for Treasury (probably still the leading candidate, but the mere floating of his name has provoked a surge of feminist pique, which could give Obama pause)
• Charles Ogletree for Attorney General (Obama’s old Harvard prof, but loyalty’s not enough)

--With Richard Wolffe, Mark Hosenball, Daniel Stone, Katie Paul, Eleanor Clift and Patrice Wingert