Contact: Brenda Velez                                                             

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

at 212-445-4078                                                                           Sunday, September 14, 2008

COVER: WHAT WOMEN WANT

THE DEFINITIVE AND SURPRISING HISTORY OF THE WAY WOMEN VOTE

---

POLLS SHOW PALIN IS APPEALING BUT THE ECONOMY

IS WOMEN'S NUMBER ONE CONCERN

New York— Since selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate, there has been an 11-point shift among white women in support for John McCain, according to the latest Newsweek Poll.  Their response appears unprecedented. History, however, suggests that this initial excitement among women voters may not last and that policy issues, rather than gender identity, may determine the outcome of this election.

 In the September 22 Newsweek cover, “What Women Want,” (on newsstands Monday, September 15), Senior Editor Julia Baird writes that “what is now known as the Palin Effect seems to be overturning almost a century of wisdom about the way women think and vote.” She adds, “Republican women, who have long been loath to vote for mothers of small children, are suddenly defending the right of women, or a woman, rather, to return to work three days after giving birth, and to seek higher office with five kids—one of whom is a pregnant teenager, and another a newborn with Down syndrome. Some Democratic women are threatening to defect to the Republicans—even if it means voting for pro-life candidates—just because Palin is a woman.”

After her nomination as the Republicans’ vice presidential candidate, the Washington Post/ABC poll reported a remarkable 20-point shift toward McCain. The new Newsweek Poll also finds that some movement occurred: in July, John McCain led Barack Obama among white women by 44 to 39 percent; now his lead is 53 to 37 percent. There was no shift among white men. One in three white women says she is more likely to vote for McCain because he chose Palin as a running mate. “Republicans are pushing a simple narrative to explain the Palin bounce: for women of whatever party, Palin is one of them, a working mother whose values resonate with other working mothers even when her views may not,” Baird writes.  Democrats on the other hand “are sputtering, also favoring a simple narrative explanation, blaming McCain’s Rovean tactics and bullying of the media for Palin’s star turn in the race—a star turn that has, for the first time since the defeat of Hillary Clinton, given Obama’s supporters significant pause about their man’s chances in November.”

These arguments are ultimately unsatisfactory because, according to Baird, their answers to a crucial question are unnuanced. “And that question may be the fundamental one of this election: what do women really want? Men have scratched their heads for centuries over what appears to women to be either a stupid or patronizing question,” Baird writes. “Pollsters neglected to actually ask them for most

of the past century. They do want a better economy, their sons and daughters brought home from war, better health care, a good educational system. They want fairer media (the Newsweek Poll found that 34 percent of white women think the media have been too critical of Palin, and that one quarter of Clinton supporters agree). And to see more mothers making decisions that affect their lives. To have the chance to run for office alongside men without being called hags or fools.”

The support for Palin along gender lines is understandable, but the past suggests that issues of policy could still trump the politics of identity. It is a story that is ever ancient, ever new: the history of women and voting in America is a tale of high hopes and harsh disappointments. Decades of experience, stretching back to the suffrage movement, suggest that the brew of excitement (for Palin), horror (from the Democrats) and drama (who knows how it will end?) is fully in keeping with the tumult of the world the women of Seneca Falls, N.Y., made all those years ago.

Will she draw in Hillary supporters? Evidence is slight. Many women have rightly argued that it is insulting to assume they would simply switch votes from one woman to another just because she is a woman, despite what her policies or experience might be. The Obama campaign acknowledges that, overall, there has been a recent shift in the female vote toward McCain. But they believe it is a modest movement among middle-aged women voters, with kids, who live in suburban and rural areas, and that the shift is already reversing itself. There is much disagreement among the parties about whether Hillary supporters will in fact defect to McCain. Many pollsters are skeptical about this claim, and the polls are inconsistent. In the Newsweek Poll, asked if Palin made them more likely to vote for McCain, 14 percent of Clinton supporters said yes. But since our previous poll, in July, the number of them who say they will vote for Obama rather than McCain has gone up by 7 percent.

But female swing voters could decide the election—both parties have drawn up battle plans which specifically target women. The possible payoffs for the Republican ticket of capturing undecided women are so great that even McCain is discovering—or trying to find—his inner Oprah. Working women and older women—“swing moms” that they believe might come from the Clinton camp—are precisely those the Republicans are seeking to target, not just by choosing Palin but by attempting to add warmth to McCain’s image as well. In the past few weeks he has done interviews with Rachael Ray, People, Marie Claire and the women on “The View.”

“It is difficult to predict if the Palin effect will endure in the face of a recession and an unpopular war. These are the issues that will decide the election,” Baird writes. “Palin has not yet been tested by the full glare of media scrutiny…She has been interviewed in her new role only once, by Charles Gibson. In that appearance she seemed awkward, uncomfortable and rehearsed. With voters already harboring serious reservations about her experience, particularly when it comes to foreign policy and the economy, performances like that one will do nothing to assuage them.” In the Newsweek Poll, only 45 percent thought she was qualified (49 percent of women), outranking only Dan Quayle among recent veep candidates. Seven in 10 thought Joe Biden was ready.

Former vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro is convinced Palin’s dream run is temporary. Polls go down: “Ours did. People never vote for vice president. We drew huge crowds. The Secret Service told me that we had the largest crowds they’d seen since JFK…Hillary saw the same thing, and Palin will too. It was exciting, and people wanted to be a part of the candidacy. But it doesn’t necessarily translate into making a difference on Election Day and who becomes president.” Ferraro believes that in some ways the symbolic power of watching a woman run for higher office can be victory enough. “Every time a woman runs,” she says, “women win.”