Gov. Sarah Palin's future is secure. She's a genuine grass-roots sensation and will remain one. Too bad that John McCain, the man who made her a star, isn't prospering with her. In fact, despite her nice turn on "Saturday Night Live," she has turned toxic for the McCain camp.
Palin's cheery good looks--and her gun-toting, Bible-thumping small-town conservatism--electrified the Republican convention and temporarily transfixed the "mainstream" media.
But her drawbacks have become painfully clear. For a variety of reasons, she has sent wavering Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans scurrying to Sen. Barack Obama--even as she has failed to substantially expand Sen. John McCain's support, even among the ranks of self-described conservatives.
She was a huge asset for one pol, though: Barack Obama. A top Chicago fundraiser for Sen. Barack Obama tells me that Palin's selection as the GOP's vice presidential candidate was a leading reason why Obama raised an astounding $150 million in September--more than double the previous campaign record. According to this source (a member of the financial inner circle; hence the insistence on anonymity), Obama got that boost because wavering donors were frightened into Obama's arms primarily by Palin's cultural conservatism on issues such as abortion and the teaching of evolution.
Three categories of donors opened their wallets for Obama in September: moderate Republicans; Jewish donors skeptical of Obama's commitment to Israel; and former "PUMAs"--hard-core Hillary Clinton supporters ("Party Unity My Ass). "Palin scared them," my source said, "and they put aside their doubts and resentments."
In the eyes of establishment figures--no matter what their ideology--Palin was a disaster. Leaders and opinion-shapers from Gen. Colin Powell to author Christopher Buckley to pundit-Reageanite Peggy Noonan called McCain's pick a cynical and irresponsible one--even if she had managed to sit still through one Henry Kissinger briefing. To these people, Palin's familiarity with dog-sled races did not make up for her utter lack of deep knowledge or worldly experience.
And for all of her defiant populist rhetoric--perhaps in part because of it--Palin has not unified the conservative movement behind McCain. That may have been too tall an order even for an Alaskan, but she hasn't done it. According to the IBD poll, only two thirds of self-described conservatives are backing McCain. Intentionally or not, Palin's stark and strident approach may be hurting McCain with the hard-right by vividly reminding them of what they expect a real conservative to sound like. This week she broke with her ticketmate to say that she favors a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. In moments like these, her ideological certainty makes him look soft.
Even if the other third of conservatives were watching "SNL," and liked what they saw, that would not be enough to turn this presidential race around.
