Running against any other GOP candidate, the state of Arizona would be a natural battleground for Barack Obama, alongside other Western states that lean toward him, like New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. But with John McCain as the Republican nominee, a serious push to win Arizona was off the table.
Until now.
Obama’s senior aides are intrigued by several late polls that show a narrowing of the presidential contest in Arizona. Most recently, on Tuesday a Cronkite-Eight poll (named for Arizona State University's journalism school and the local PBS channel) showed the state a statistical tie, with the Arizona senator just 2 points ahead of Obama. That poll suggests Arizona is too close to call, with Obama making significant gains among women and independents.
The campaign is now seriously examining a late surge into the state. That may include ramping up TV advertising, on-the-ground staff or even deploying the candidate to stop there. Obama is scheduled to make a Western swing late this week, making an Arizona visit possible.
According to Pollster.com’s averages, Arizona is a 6 point race in McCain’s favor, compared to Pennsylvania--McCain’s best hope of picking up a blue state--which is an 11-point race in Obama’s favor. That means Obama has more reason to travel to Arizona than McCain does to Pennsylvania, no matter how far-fetched it once seemed to try to win McCain’s home state.
