Some final clues about what the Obama campaign will be watching for,
and worrying about, on election night. The Democratic candidate is
spending most of the penultimate day of the election in Ohio: first
with 60,000 Buckeyes in Columbus, then with Bruce Springsteen in
Cleveland, and finally in Cincinnati.
Columbus and Cleveland are Democratic strongholds in the state.
Kerry won Franklin County around Columbus by 9 points in 2004; and he
won Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County by 34 points.
But Cincinnati was Bush Country in 2004, where Kerry lost by 5 points
in Hamilton County. To end the day in the corner of Ohio where
Republicans need to rack up votes is a clear challenge to McCain’s base
in the state.
After a late-night flight south, Obama wakes up on the final full
day of campaigning in Jacksonville, Florida. That lies in Duval
County,which Bush won by 16 points four years ago. From there he makes
a big play for the South – Charlotte, North Carolina, and finally
Manassas, Virginia.
The symbolism of ending election eve in Northern Virginia is irresistible to the Obama campaign.
At the start of this final week, Obama visited Harrisonburg, at the
western side of the state, where he noted that the last Democratic
presidential candidate to visit the town was Stephen Douglas in 1860.
At the next event, in Norfolk, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine said he believed
a Democratic candidate could win Virginia for the first time in 44
years, since LBJ. Either Obama hopes to take Virginia out of the
confederacy or he hopes to turn back the clock to a time before Nixon
and Reagan.
The latest NBC/Mason-Dixon polls split all four states, with the
numbers well within the margin of error. In Ohio, McCain is up by 2
points;in Florida, Obama is up by 2. In North Carolina McCain is up by
3 points; in Virginia, Obama is up by 3.
That means Obama could easily lose them all, although his senior
aides say that Florida is the big prize that concerns them most. On the
other hand, an early win in Virginia could spell a sweeping victory for
Obama on Tuesday.
