Here's my take on tonight's Democratic debate. If you're looking for some super-sub-Joycean stream-of-consciousness analysis, check out my typo-riddled liveblogging here.

LOS ANGELES, Calif.--The stakes were high. The expectations were higher. But in the end, nothing happened onstage tonight at the Kodak Theater here in Hollywood to change the contours of the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The reason? Neither Clinton nor Obama wanted anything to happen. They were speaking this evening to a broad, relatively unengaged audience spread across the 22 states that will vote in the upcoming Super Tuesday primary on Feb. 5. The goal wasn't to make news for political junkies to obsess over; it was to present positive cases for their candidacies to people who haven't been paying a lot of attention. Sniping and backbiting would've been a distraction--not to mention a turn off. Instead we got Clinton appealing to health-care voters, women and the working class--focusing on the "specifics," as she always does, but working to show (through rhetoric and resume) that she's not as "divisive" as her critics say. And Obama made his experience vs. judgment case in a single sentence, saying that while Clinton claims she will be "ready on day one," he will be "right" on day one. "The differences between Barack and I pale in comparison to our differences with the Republicans," said Clinton. "Hillary Clinton and I were friends before the campaign started, and we'll be friends when it's over," said Obama. It was two wonks making two parallel pitches on the same stage, with only very occasional overlap.

From a purely strategic standpoint, Clinton may leave La-La Land tonight in slightly better shape than Obama--at least in a national sense. Stasis benefits the frontrunner, and with sizable leads in some of the biggest Feb. 5 states, Clinton is still ahead. Obama performed well, but he didn't do anything to take her down a notch. Another factor perhaps working against Obama: high expectations. After trouncing Clinton in S.C. and scoring the endorsements of Ted and Caroline Kennedy, Obama arrived at the Kodak with a golden glow of sorts. But he wasn't Mr. Camelot tonight--he was just the same old Barack. For some folks, that's enough. But for others, it still isn't. I doubt he changed many minds.

Then again, Clinton got caught up relitigating Iraq for half of the debate--a tough topic for her (and a welcome one for Obama). And Obama got a smart jump on the general, claiming that the wheels have fallen off John McCain's Straight Talk Express and reminding voters that McCain has said we might be stuck in Iraq for "100 years." If Democrats start to see Obama as a better match for McCain--here's where his Iraq war opposition might enter into the equation--he could get a boost from tonight's battle.

In the end, though, both Clinton and Obama were clearly content to maintain the status quo. The real battles will take place on the trail between now and Feb. 5, as the candidates crisscross the country wooing the small pockets of voters required to execute their Super Tuesday strategies. And judging by tonight, they're both confident that if things go as planned they'll earn enough delegates on the big day to keep on keepin' on.

Winners? Losers? Sorry. Looks like we've got a long way to go.

Using metaphors in political advertising is tricky. When effective, they can serve as a catchy way to sum up an opponent's weaknesses, like in 2004, when the Bush campaign reinforced the stereotype of a flip-flopping John Kerry with footage of him tacking left and right while windsurfing; providing viewers with a memorable image is much more effective than simply slinging mud. Or they can seem embarrassingly overwrought and convoluted. A recent Mitt Romney ad called "Ocean," which sees Romney comparing our culture to "a cesspool of violence, and sex, and drugs, and indolence, and perversions" over sunset shots of children frolicking in the breakers, is a perfect example. It was creepy.

The Clinton campaign--which is out this week with two new spots touting its candidate's economic credentials--rarely gets creative with its advertising. Most of its commercials are like "Can Do": soft shots of smiling, multiracial citizens crosscut with a coiffed Clinton saying something about "voices."  But "Free Fall" (above) is different. Unlike "Can Do," it uses a metaphor--plummeting from the sky to certain death below--to describe our current slide toward possible recession. If this continues, Clinton warns, we're all toast. But thankfully there's a "parachute" that you "can depend on to fix the economy and protect our future." And that parachute's name is Hillary.  

I applaud the effort, but still--the ad's a little off. Look, I understand why Clinton is harping on the economy; voters are worried and she polls well on the issue. And I can forgive the shameless fear-mongering--not only is there a lifeless human body plunging to earth, but spooky words like "recession," "less hope," "down," "unemployment," "foreclosures" and even "fears" are flashing onscreen. That's par for the course. But the metaphor itself makes no sense. Deployed mid-"free fall," a parachute doesn't lift you to your original altitude. It simply lowers you the ground more slowly. Extended to its logical conclusion, the ad's argument suggests that we'll still lose our homes and jobs under Hillary--it'll just take longer to happen.

Back to the drawing board, I guess. We hear there's a bridge to the 21st century in desperate need of repair. In a place called Hope. And it will be there until the last dog dies.

Okay, I'll stop now. 

On the trail, though, the work of winning over real, live voters before Super Tuesday is a little less miraculous. In advance of tonight's final pre-Feb. 5 debate in Hollywood, Obama scheduled exactly one stop in Southern California: at the Los Angeles Trade Technical College in downtown L.A.. In case you're curious, LATTC is a) filled entirely with young people and b) 53 percent Hispanic. "I can't do this without you," said Obama from a stage in the center of the school's Spanish Colonial Revival courtyard. He meant it.

A surge in youth voter turnout propelled Obama to victory in Iowa and South Carolina, where the kids picked him over Hillary three-to-one. But the campaign can't possibly devote as much time and energy to mobilizing young voters in 22 states that vote on Super Tuesday as he did in the handful of early contests--meaning that the next five days will be spent targeting the 'utes where they can really make a difference. California is one of those places. Obama trails Clinton statewide, but turning out a ton of core supporters in key spots (like Los Angeles) could help keep him close in the proportional delegate tally.

The Latino/Hispanic vote will also be crucial. In Nevada, Obama lost Latinos to Clinton by the same margin he typically wins young voters. He wants to do better on Super Tuesday, and it's easy to see why: Latinos make up 22.8 percent of the eligible voters in California, 17 percent of eligible voters in Arizona, 12.3 percent in Colorado, 11.4 percent in New York and 9.9 percent in New Jersey. Those states alone award more than half of the day's delegates, and unless Obama is content to cede them to Clinton, he'll need to convince at least a few more Latinos to break his way.

He gave it his all at today's appearance, starting his remarks by addressing the historical tensions between blacks and Latinos. "It's so important to come together," he said. "We've heard the cynical talk about how black folks, white folks, Latinos will not come together; we've heard talk about the so-called black-brown divide; and whenever I hear this, I take it seriously, because I'm reminded of the Latino brothers and sisters I worked alongside on the streets of Chicago two decades ago."

The rest of the speech was similarly targeted. Monday's Ted Kennedy endorsement was portrayed in the press largely as a symbolic gesture--a passing of the JFK baton--but this morning Obama put the support of the liberal lion, who's hugely popular with Latinos for championing immigration reform, to practical use on the stump. "I fought with Ted Kennedy to work on comprehensive immigration reform," he said to thunderous applause, later adding that "as my friend and supporter Ted Kennedy says, in this country, as in all countries, health care should be a fundamental right." Decrying the state of public education, Obama mentioned how he recently read an article in the Los Angeles Times about a mother frustrated with her son's failing school who came to conclusion that "maybe the system is not designed for people like us." Her name: Martha Sanchez. On immigration, the senator said he was "really upset with the tone of debate... in this country"--mainly because "folks are focusing on south of the border, but they don't talk about immigrants from Ireland or Poland." And when the crowd started chanting "Yes, We Can," Obama responded, unprompted, in Spanish: "Sí, se puede."

The starshine, of course, hasn't vanished. "I believe a new kind of politics is possible," Obama said near the end of his speech. "This election is a choice not between regions or religions or genders; not black versus white or Latino versus Asian. It's not young versus old. This is a choice about the past versus future." Point taken. But the future is still a ways away. Right now, with the down-and-dirty decisions of Super Tuesday looming, inspiration only counts for so much. The rest is sweat.

And even a hope-monger knows that.

Contributed by Holly Bailey

Is John McCain running for president—or assembling the cast of the best action movie ever? Last week, Sylvester Stallone threw his support behind the Arizona senator’s presidential campaign. This morning, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain at an event in Los Angeles. Backing from Rambo and the Terminator—what have you got to say to that, Mitt Romney?

Unfortunately, McCain will have to make do with Arnold riding shotgun on the trail. Yesterday on the plane ride to California, the senator broke the news to reporters that Stallone won’t be stumping for him anytime soon. After hearing of his surprise endorsement, McCain tried calling Stallone, but reached his wife instead, who told him that Rocky was in Europe promoting his new Rambo film. “I was very disappointed,” McCain said.

But not to worry. There’s another familiar Hollywood face lending his support to the Straight Talker’s campaign: Wilford Brimley. You probably know the walrus-mustachioed actor as the kindly old grandpa in the Quaker Oats commercials. But the guy’s got some action movie cred of his own, including playing the evil mob enforcer who tried to off Tom Cruise in “The Firm.” Brimley has endorsed McCain, too, and has been showing up randomly at campaign events in recent weeks. The latest Brimley sighting was on Tuesday night, when McCain ran into the actor at the rally celebrating his Florida primary win. “I’m glad you’re here,” McCain told him. Brimley, the senator said, grabbed his hand in a firm shake and gave him an intense look. “Do or die,” Brimley counseled in his gravelly baritone. “Do…or…die.” It’s enough to send chills down your spine...and make you glad Arnold’s somewhere close by.

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories--live from the San Fernando Valley in Southern California.

*If you haven't already, make sure to check out Suzanne Smalley's Stumper item "Cracks in the Romney Facade." "The GOP candidate who has until now boasted the best ground organization in key battleground states, the biggest ad buys, the most efficient research and communications apparatus, and every other advantage money can buy suddenly appears rudderless and disengaged," she writes.

THE F-WORD
(Holly Bailey, Newsweek)
John McCain still refuses to use the F-word—front runner, that is. Boarding his campaign plane early Wednesday, the morning after his big win in Florida, the Arizona senator waved off reporters who asked if he was finally comfortable thinking of himself as the man to beat for the Republican presidential nomination. "I'm trying not to think that way," McCain said. "You know me, I'm way too superstitious for that … We've still got a long way to go."

WHY CAROLINE BACKED OBAMA
(Jonathan Alter, Newsweek)
For all the attention paid to Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama, the more crucial seal of approval may be the one affixed by Caroline Kennedy. An Obama TV ad that features her is already being widely aired in Super Tuesday states. If Caroline helps Obama cut into Hillary Clinton's base among women over 40 (especially Roman Catholic women), Obama aides believe her involvement could prove important to the outcome. 

JOHN EDWARDS' LEGACY
(Matt Philips, Newsweek)
Though he never made much of a mark in the polls, Edwards has had a major impact on this race by driving the conversation, something he deserves a lot of credit for. He was the first candidate out with a universal health care plan and the first to rail against trade agreements like NAFTA that, he says, have cost America a million jobs. He also brought a sense of morality and social justice to the race, themes both Obama and Clinton have folded into their stump speeches over the last month. Through a year of hard campaigning, Edwards has forced the Democratic Party to refocus itself on the plight of the poor.

ROMNEY FALLS INTO MCCAIN TRAP ON IRAQ
(Jonathan Martin, Politico)
In the final GOP debate before Super Tuesday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain of Arizona bickered over a laundry list of past and present positions, most notably whether Romney backed a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq. But there was little focus on the nation’s economic uncertainty or the hot-button topics that make some conservatives doubt McCain’s pureness of heart. And for Romney, who now faces an uphill climb when voters in this state and more than 20 others head to the polls on Tuesday, that was not good news.

MORE: McCain and Romney Tangle at Debate, but Also Try to Mold a Two-Man Race (New York Times) 

ENDORSEMENTS BRING A NEW HEAD OF STEAM
(Mark Z. Barabak, Michael Finnegan and Evan Halper, Los Angeles Times)
John McCain sought to fasten his grip on the Republican presidential nomination Wednesday by securing high-profile endorsements from erstwhile rival Rudolph W. Giuliani and, in a reversal of his promised neutrality, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Former New York City Mayor Giuliani, who spent months atop national polls but never finished better than third in any contest, quit the race at a Simi Valley news conference, where he hailed the Arizona senator as a friend and an "American hero."

CONTINUED AFTER THE JUMP... 

There’s a new order inside the Mitt Romney campaign. The GOP candidate who has until now boasted the best ground organization in key battleground states, the biggest ad buys, the most efficient research and communications apparatus, and every other advantage money can buy suddenly appears rudderless and disengaged. Romney, who spent nearly $3 million on advertising in Florida in the past month alone (and more than $5 million in the state over the last year), has been a workhorse since his campaign for the presidency began. He has been far ahead of his rivals in both money spent and time dedicated on the stump. Yet even as his rivals’ makeshift campaigns have thrown together slapdash events (Mike Huckabee’s haircut press conference, anyone?), they have pulled off big wins with little money and even less structure.

Things are changing. At Wednesday night’s debate an uncharacteristically flustered Romney was caught off guard and seemed distracted at times, at one point denying one of his own positions on immigration policy (a debate moderator read a prior comment Romney had made on the issue to set him straight). Worse, Romney has reportedly chosen not to advertise in the 21 states set to vote in Tuesday’s critical round of Republican primaries. Romney communications director Matt Rhoades declined to comment on the campaign’s strategy in an interview after tonight’s debate, but he did not specifically deny a report by the Associated Press that asserted Romney has decided against going on air in the crucial Super Tuesday states. “We’re not gonna show our playbook,” Rhoades said. “He’s not gonna drop out. He’s very serious.” However, Rhoades did acknowledge that less than a week away from Super Tuesday voting, Romney is not yet on the air in any of the states that will likely determine his party’s nominee. Much of the money Romney has pumped into advertising in the past has been his own; during his concession speech in Florida last night, Romney joked with supporters that they were family, but should not “expect to be part of the inheritance. I’m not sure there’s going to be much left after this.”

CONTINUED AFTER THE JUMP... 

SIMI VALLEY, California--Here's what I took away from tonight's face-off between the four remaining Republican candidates at the Ronald Reagan Library:

1. The Dynamic: Before South Carolina and Florida, the GOP contest was a four-man muddle. But tonight marked the start of a mano-a-mano head-to-head sprint to finish between McCain and Romney. It's a whole new race. Free to focus their fire on each other, the frontrunner (McCain) and the challenger (Romney) defined the dynamic that will determine the Republican nomination: character vs. conservatism.

Romney wants the contest to center on conservative cred, which is why he unloaded on McCain for sponsoring "a number of pieces of legislation where his views are out of the mainstream, at least in my view, of conservative Republican thought": McCain-Lieberman (cap-and-trade), McCain-Kennedy (immigration) and McCain-Feingold (campaign finance reform). Romney's goal? To convince anti-McCain conservatives to coalesce around his candidacy, providing a powerful brake to Mac's post-Florida momentum.

McCain, on the other hand, wants Super Tuesday voters to compare his character to Romney's. Which is why he took Romney to task for hedging on the surge while the Arizona senator "unequivocally put [his] career and [his] political fortunes on the line... to support" Bush's policy. The implication: that Mitt doesn't have the cojones to lead in a time of terror.

So who's dominating the tug-of-war? I'm going to say McCain. While Romney raised valid questions about his rival's conservative "apostasies"--questions, I should note, that the senator largely dodged (the one on his opposition to the Bush tax cuts was particularly blatant)--it's not like many voters expect the "maverick" McCain to tow toe the party line. Romney is telling people a story they already know. But when McCain questions Romney's character, he's not only drawing a contrast--he's reminding voters that Romney, a moderate back in Massachusetts, has tacked to the right on key conservative issues like abortion, gay rights, immigration and abortion. (Did I mention abortion?) According to McCain, Romney is casting stones from a glass house--and his lack of consistency (read: character) also undermines his conservative cred.

This was Romney's last best chance to reorient the race before Super Tuesday--but he spent most of the night defending or clarifying his positions (especially on Iraq, McCain's strong suit). Not helpful.

Contributed by Karen Breslau and Holly Bailey

John McCain will soon be basking in the glow of an endorsement from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. But is another powerful supporter about to climb aboard the Straight Talk Express? California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will officially endorse McCain after Wednesday night's GOP debate, sources close to both men hint. Both the governor's office and McCain's campaign are maintaining an official silence on the subject. But if the Governator does pat Mac on the back, it would only add to McCain's momentum. Schwarzenegger maintains public approval ratings in his state in the 60s, and California is one of the biggest prizes on Super Tuesday. The two have formed a mutual admiration society over their respective efforts on climate change. Schwarzenegger's endorsement could permanently change the climate of the GOP race.

UPDATE, 7:30 p.m.: Romano here. I was trailing Huckabee in Orange County when Karen and Holly kicked in this item, but I must admit, I'm fascinated. If Arnold does end up endorsing McCain--he told reporters today that he'd join the Arizona senator at an environmental event tomorrow, and smiled as he said, "I have no news to give you today"--it will mean that nearly every steroidal action hero of the 1980s now has a horse in the race. Chuck Norris was first into the fray with his endorsement of Mike Huckabee; wrestler Ric Flair joined him shortly thereafter. Sylvester Stallone recently announced his support of John McCain, while Hulk Hogan came out for Barack Obama last night on the Jimmy Kimmel show. And now McCain gets Arnold, who was a hulking barbarian and unfeeling cyborg assassin long before he ran the state of Call-ee-forn-eeya.

I'm not sure why a penchant for pretend ultraviolence has suddenly become relevant political currency. But I do know one thing: the candidate who snags Jean-Claude Van Damme is riding that baby all the way to the White House.

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif.--Swimming pool. Tennis court. Lakefront vista. Bottle blondes. Valets in tuxedos parking Audis, Lexuses, Benzes and BMWs. Bartenders serving wine and champagne at 11:00 on a Wednesday morning. People actually drinking wine and champagne at 11:00 on a Wednesday morning--instead of, you know, working. In the street, a woman wearing britches and designer sunglasses led a gorgeous chestnut mare by the reins. Nearby, Hispanic laborers picked crabgrass from the close-cropped lawns.

In the immortal words of Luke Ward: "Welcome to the O.C., b***h."

Or a Mike Huckabee fundraiser.  

Newport Beach is not exactly Huckabee's scene. To put it mildly. As one of the poshest communities in America, it's a poor fit, in theory, for a Southern-fried Arkansan whose mother grew up with dirt floors and whose father never finished high school. "You're pretty sophisticated out here," he noted. (Eat your heart out, Ryan Atwood.) But when Huck arrived this morning in California for tonight's debate at the Reagan Library--he was the first candidate in town--he went straight for the low-slung Newport ranch of Buck and Colleen Johns. Why? Money. A country combo called the Coldcuts may have been playing Garth Brooks' "Friends in Low Places," but today, at least, Huckabee was aiming a little higher up the ladder.

Good thing Huck is a consummate chameleon on the stump. I've seen him sermonize at Baptist churches, rock out on college campuses and crack wise on late-night television, but this morning he relished a new role: heir to Ronald Reagan. "Reagan's an icon nowadays, but people forget that, back then, he bucked the establishment," said Huckabee, drawing the connection between the Gipper's rise and his own. "The elitists on the East Coast didn't have use for him. But he was speaking out in a way that attracted new folks to the party."  The approach makes perfect sense. A bastion since the 1960s of movement conservatism, Orange County propelled Barry Goldwater to the 1964 GOP nomination and later fueled Reagan's 1976 and 1980 runs. Aware of the area's history, Huckabee sought to calm fears that his economic populism led to higher taxes and bigger bureaucracy in Arkansas, reassuring attendees that he's a "real conservative" who  "want[s] government to get out of the way of the free market." Even the values-voter section of his stump speech was altered for the country-club crowd. "Strong families are not just a social-issue but an economic issue," he said. "They're very expensive to the rest of the taxpayers."  

The pitch went over well enough. As dolled-up guests mingled in a tent outside his low-slung ranch home, Buck Johns announced that the fundraiser had netted more than $100,000, which should provide a small boost to Huckabee's perennially cash-strapped campaign. But even donors worried that Huckabee doesn't have the money or momentum necessary to compete with McCain and Romney in the Super Tuesday bonanza. "It's in God's hands now," shrugged John Lewis, a 33-year-old real estate broker from nearby Walnut. As always, Huckabee had a good line ready. "We're not only in play but poised to win," he said, "in Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, West Virginia and Montana."

A stretch? Sure. But you get what you pay for.

My NEWSWEEK colleague Howard Fineman has a very smart (and very timely) column up about whether Edwards will endorse--and why endorsements in general matter more now than they have in decades. Excerpts:

Edwards:

The big question on the Democratic side is who John Edwards will support now that he's dropping out of the race. I'm told that Edwards's decision was very closely held, meaning he and his wife alone knew the score. As of Tuesday morning, he still had an ambitious schedule planned in the Super Tuesday states. But Tuesday afternoon he notified his staff that he wanted to go to New Orleans instead. Everyone knew what that meant. That devastated city was where Edwards had begun his campaign in the name of the poor and forgotten. Now he would return to say that his campaign had failed, but that the cause lived on. As for his endorsement plans, they remain unclear. His representatives had been reaching out to Obama's high command for weeks, but I am told that they rebuffed him. A top aide to Edwards cautioned not to assume that Edwards would endorse Obama. "He's gained a lot of respect for Hillary, for her toughness in all that she has been through." That could just be a negotiating ploy on Edwards's part. We'll see.

Endorsements: 

If the 2008 campaign has proved anything so far, it is that endorsements DO matter. In fact, they may well matter more than they have in decades. Voters are too busy, distracted and ideologically confused to make fateful political decisions on their own. They are looking for guidance. And now the race is entering a phase–Super-Duper-Mega Tsunami Tuesday—when endorsements may prove indispensable.

You also need character witnesses. Unlike the early, intimate states of Iowa and New Hampshire, voters can't examine the candidates up close, like a piece of fruit in the market. And with a resurgence of ethnic-identity politics, especially on the Democratic side, candidates need endorsers to give them entrée across social borders.

Read the rest here. 

So much for all the talk of playing kingmaker at a brokered convention.

According to CNN, the former North Carolina senator has told his top advisers of his decision to withdraw from the Democratic race and is expected to announce in New Orleans at 1:00 p.m. It's a fitting backdrop considering that Edwards formally launched his bid in the ravaged Lower Ninth Ward a little over a year ago, on Dec. 28, 2006. Yesterday, the Edwards press shop sent out a release touting the appearance as a major address on poverty, and it's likely that Edwards will keep the focus squarely on what he has called his "life's work."

Here's my colleague Howard Fineman on the decision: "I'm told that Edwards's decision was very closely held, meaning he and his wife alone knew the score. As of Tuesday morning, he still had an ambitious schedule planned in the Super Tuesday states. But Tuesday afternoon he notified his staff that he wanted to go to New Orleans instead. Everyone knew what that meant. That devastated city was where Edwards had begun his campaign in the name of the poor and forgotten. Now he would return to say that his campaign had failed, but that the cause lived on."

Expect a lot of chatter today about which rival--Clinton or Obama--Edwards supporters will choose. It's tough to game out. On one hand, it seems obvious that many will flock to Obama, the other "change" candidate railing against lobbyists and "Washington-style" politics; on the other, Edwards attracted strong support from downscale, working-class voters, and they tend to prefer Clinton to Obama. I'm not sure anyone will know until the returns come in on Feb. 5.

Either way, huge news. Edwards consistently won 15 percent of the electorate--a swath of support large enough to seriously alter the calculus of Super Tuesday, which has to be a consideration given the timing. And an endorsement--one can only imagine Obama--would amplify their impact. According to Fineman, Edwards' "representatives had been reaching out to Obama's high command for weeks, but I am told that they rebuffed him. A top aide to Edwards cautioned not to assume that Edwards would endorse Obama. 'He's gained a lot of respect for Hillary, for her toughness in all that she has been through.' That could just be a negotiating ploy on Edwards's part." Indeed.

Conveniently, Obama just told ABC that "he has let former Sen. John Edwards know that he would like his endorsement should Edwards decide to drop out of the race." 

Stay tuned. 

UPDATE, 10:54 a.m.: A reader asks if there's been "any mention of Elizabeth's health." No idea, but I was wondering the same thing. As far as I could tell, she didn't do any stumping during the closing days in South Carolina, leaving most of the family surrogate work to daughter Cate and parents-in-law Wallace and Bobbie. It was unusual--she was all over Iowa and New Hampshire--and I noted her absence at the time. Here's hoping all is well. 

UPDATE, 11:06 a.m.: Obama beats Clinton to the punch on praising Edwards. "At a time when our politics is too focused on who’s up and who’s down, he made a nation focus again on who matters," he says in a statement. "The New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington." Clinton's only email since news broke of Edwards' withdrawal? "Victory in Florida."

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories—live from the San Fernando Valley in Southern California.

MCCAIN DEFEATS ROMNEY IN FLORIDA VOTE
(Michael Cooper and Meghan Thee, New York Times)
The results were a decisive turning point in the Republican race, effectively winnowing the field to Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney, two candidates with very different backgrounds who have little affection for one another but share a similar challenge in winning over elements of the party suspicious of their ideological credentials.

FOR MCCAIN, MOMENTUM THAT MAY BE HARD TO STOP
(Dan Balz, Washington Post)
McCain's victory in Florida was especially notable because this marked the first major contest in which only registered Republicans and not independents -- long his most consistent supporters -- were allowed to participate. But he lost among voters who described themselves as conservatives. While not the darling of the conservative establishment, McCain is seen by many rank-and-file Republicans, and some party leaders, as their most electable nominee. They also consider him the one with the greatest opportunity to reach beyond the party's base to draw independent voters, who have swung toward Democrats in the past two years. Exit polls from Florida showed, however, the ideological fault lines that will shape the competition between Romney and McCain over the next week.

MCCAIN'S TASK AHEAD
(Alex Frangos, Wall Street Journal)
Earlier on Florida's primary day, McCain adviser Steve Schmidt outlined the challenges. "There are a greater number of states up for grabs on Feb. 5 than there were in the swing state category in the 2004 general election." And all that is taking place over six campaign days. "It's going to be a race that takes place over the TV," Schmidt said. That style of national campaigning, packed with television appearances and paid advertisements, will be new territory for McCain and his main rival Mitt Romney... Campaign consultants say it would cost $35 million to flood the airwaves in all of the Super Tuesday states for the next week, an amount only Romney could afford thanks to his personal wealth. "Yeah I'm concerned about it," McCain chuckled about the prospect of Romney opening his wallet that wide.

IS ROMNEY FIGHTING THE LAST WAR?
(Michael Scherer, Time)
As has become increasingly clear, the ideological coalition Romney so eagerly courted no longer controls the fate of the GOP, at least in the early voting states — which have favored Mike Huckabee, a populist who trumpets the occasional role of larger government, and John McCain, a legislative maverick who does not always play by the Republican rulebook. Romney tried to run as the establishment candidate, only to find that the establishment no longer held the power. The Romney campaign, humbled by recent defeats, now hopes to rebrand his insider strategy as an outsider one. As the candidate soldiers on to the 21 states that will vote on February 5, the campaign holds out hope that the old coalition can be reborn anew. 

RUDY DEFEAT MARKS THE END OF 9/11 POLITICS
(Ben Smith and David Paul Kuhn, Politico)
Rudy Giuliani's distant third-place finish in Florida may put an end to his bid for president, and it seems also to mark the beginning of the end of a period in Republican politics that began on Sept. 11, 2001.  Giuliani's national celebrity was based on his steady, comforting appearance in Americans' living rooms amid the terrorist attacks, and his campaign for president never found a message beyond that moment. The emotional connection he forged that day, it seems, has proved politically worthless. After months of wonder that the former mayor seemed to have no ceiling to his support, he turned out to have no floor.

MORE: For Giuliani, the Trip South Started Early (Michael Leahy and Michael D. Shear, Washington Post)
The Florida strategy was born of desperation, the result of a growing realization that the candidate atop every national poll last winter was not winning over voters in the states he needed to catapult his campaign. According to numerous sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they have close relationships with the campaign, the effort began bogging down early, as strategists struggled to find a state where Giuliani could win.

DID HILLARY CLINTON REALLY WIN FLORIDA?
(Walter Shapiro, Salon)
As Clinton and Obama brace for what may be the Democrats' first protracted count-every-delegate battle since 1984, the real question is not bragging rights from Florida. Rather it is: What will happen to Florida's and Michigan's convention delegates? Right now, the DNC excludes both states entirely from the calculation that 2,025 delegate votes are necessary for victory at the convention, out of 4,049 cast.

AND: Much Ado About Not Much (Dana Milbank, Washington Post)
Cheering supporters? Check. Election returns on the projection screen? Check. Andrea Mitchell and Candy Crowley doing stand-ups? Check and check. In fact, the only piece missing from Hillary Clinton's Florida victory party here Tuesday night was a victory.

CONTINUED AFTER THE JUMP... 

Here's Newsweek's Michael Hirsh on McCain's Florida victory:

The astonishing turnaround in McCain's fortunes arose from several factors: Giuliani's disastrous strategy of skipping the early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina; lingering GOP doubts about Romney's electability stemming from his Mormon faith, as well as tepid support from the Republican base over his squishy stance on social issues; and a certain degree of vindication for McCain's early staunch support of Bush's troop surge in Iraq.

McCain focused heavily on areas in the state where his message on national security would play well, like Tampa and the Panhandle-home to thousands of military vets and their families. Even in spite of polls showing that the economy was the biggest issue looming in the state, McCain did little to shake up his stump speech-hitting hard on the war, counterterrorism, and the need to keep America safe. Heading into the final weekend, McCain went on the attack, hitting Romney for his lukewarm support of the surge and calling him a flip-flopper. "He is consistent," McCain sneered to reporters during a campaign stop in Jacksonville on Monday. "He has consistently taken both sides of every major issue. He has consistently flip-flipped on every major issue."

Late last week, McCain and his aides began to lean hard on two big-time Florida lawmakers who had yet to offer endorsements in the race: Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist, both longtime allies of McCain. Both had initially said they would stay neutral in the race, but with Romney appearing to gain momentum in the polls, McCain privately pleaded with the two to reconsider. Martinez went first, announcing his support for McCain on Friday afternoon. On Saturday night, Crist, one of the most popular Republicans in Florida, followed, in what was regarded as the nail in Giuliani's coffin.

Read the rest here. 
 

By Suzanne Smalley 

Mike Freese, a 59-year-old St. Petersburg resident and Romney supporter who is trying to start a movement he calls Red Necks for Romney, had already gotten two posters with the slogan signed by Romney at events over the past few days. Imagine his disappointment when Romney's advance staff stopped him from bringing a third handmade Red Necks for Romney sign into their election night event in St. Petersburg's grand Mirror Lake Lyceum, an event hall here. Freese said that while Romney has chuckled at his message each time he's autographed one of the signs, last night the staff told him only official Romney manufactured signs were allowed. How very Romney.
 
Truth be told, the Romney folks could have used a few more signs last night. The hall at Mirror Lake was too big for the crowd of just a couple hundred, leaving about a quarter of the seats in the balcony overlooking where Romney gave his bittersweet concession speech empty. The bar was deserted all night; bartenders said there was plenty of booze left over downstairs that never made it up to the party space. One of the few people drinking, in fact, was Romney senior adviser Ron Kaufman, who nursed a beer as the governor spoke nostalgically for a United States that he sounded like he was eulogizing.
 
Last night, Romney sounded off message for the first time all campaign. He stumbled over words as he delivered his speech. His tone was wistful and even sad at times. It seemed to be dawning on Romney that his chances of winning are increasingly unlikely. "I remember when I was growing up I always knew that America was the greatest nation on Earth," he said. "First nation to the moon, our cars and movies and technology were the envy of the entire world and freedom and opportunity was just like the air – it was everywhere I went. I believed there was nothing I couldn't do and I knew there was nothing that America couldn't do because we led the world….What kind of nation will we leave our children and our grandchildren?" The implicit message was clear: If John McCain is elected, instead of Romney, we won't be leaving them much. After he finished speaking, Journey's "Don't Stop Believing" blasted through the ballroom. It was hard to believe that Romney still buys the lyrics. 

Read Suzanne's Romney story here.

Contributed by Sarah Elkins 

With 54 percent of precincts reporting, McCain leads Romney 36 to 31 percent--which is good enough for the win, according to the networks. Here's what I wrote earlier on McCain after Florida:

If McCain finishes first, it will prove that he doesn't need Independents to win, providing a powerful rebuttal to Romney's charge that McCain isn't a "real Republican"; unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, only the party faithful can participate in the Florida primary. It'll be hard for Romney to spin even a close second; Florida is winner-take-all, and, as Mitt has said, "I'm not looking for gold stars on my forehead like I'm in first grade. I'm looking to rack up the delegates I need to win the nomination." A wave of positive headlines--after all, McCain once called the press his "base," and pundits are salivating at the prospect of crowning someone the frontrunner--will likely boost his (already strong) poll numbers in California and the delegate-rich northeast (expect him to focus on those two areas in the run-up to Super Tuesday). Voters initially attracted to Giuliani's macho rhetoric will continue to flock to McCain, and Huckabee will keep his fervent social conservative constituency just out of Romney's reach for as long as possible. Mac will be hard to beat. 

More to come.

I just landed at Dallas-Fort Worth airport for a brief layover before flying out to Los Angeles for this week's final pre-Feb. 5 debates. A few quick thoughts before "wheels up":

On Ron Paul: After posting items earlier today on what's next for Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney and McCain after Florida, I was bombarded with emails (some of them angry) asking why I was ignoring Ron Paul. "Why, sir, no mention of Ron Paul?" wrote "Mike C." "He is in better shape than some of the others, yet your blog and 99% of all the other MSM outlets omit him. Is the MSM scared of this guy? Are you scared of him?" To answer Mike: I'm not a particularly courageous guy, but, no, I'm not scared of Ron Paul. In fact, I think he's one of the most interesting things to happen to American politics in a long time. I even wrote an article about it. And you're right, Mike--the good doctor is doing better than, say, Giuliani. But here's the rub: Florida isn't going to change his candidacy. Paul's final polling average was 3.6 percent--nearly 10 points less than Huckabee, the next closest contender. Unless there's a larger disparity tonight than in previous primaries between that number and the result, Paul won't upend expectations and end the day either better or worse off than he started it. So no real news to report--unlike Giuliani, who's probably toast. That said, he's got a ton of money and passionate support, and he'll continue campaigning for as long as those two things hold out. But sorry, guys. I don't think Ron Paul will win the Republican nomination. The question is, will he continue as an independent even after the GOP chooses its candidate?

On Hillary Clinton: Hillary Clinton just won the Democratic primary in Florida. By more than 20 points. So why no coverage on Stumper? Because it doesn't count. Last year, when Florida threatened to move its primary before Feb. 5, the national party warned that it would strip the state of its delegates if it decided to go through with the plan. Florida ignored the warning, the party kept its promise and the leading Dems--Clinton, Obama and Edwards--agreed not to campaign there. But after Clinton lost South Carolina--and found herself in desperate need of momentum--she suddenly started saying that Florida should matter. Conveniently, she led in polls there by 20 points--largely as result of her name recognition and the fact that her rivals had never set foot in the state to stump or organize. Now she's on CNN claiming that Floridians' "voices will be heard." Baloney. The state--not Obama--decided to disenfranchise the locals. Clinton's charade is like, say, Michael Jordan winning MVP during a season when the entire league's on strike. No one was playing, and it's condescending to think that voters outside of Florida will see the balloons and banners and assume that she actually beat someone. As Obama spokesman put it in an email titled "Breaking...": "Obama and Clinton tie for delegates in Florida.  0 for Obama, 0 for Clinton."

On Rudy: Mark Halperin at Time's The Page is reporting that "sources expect Giuliani to endorse McCain as early as Wednesday." What did I tell you?

On Tonight: I'm about to take off for La-La Land, but my colleagues Suzanne Smalley, Sarah Elkins and Holly Bailey should be filing dispatches from the Republican "victory" parties. Only one will earn the name. Stay tuned.

Contributed by Catharine Skipp and Arian Campo-Flores

Charlie Crist, Florida’s Republican governor, has been all over the news lately as a result of his endorsement of Sen. John McCain. But his popular predecessor, Jeb Bush, has been incognito. What gives? “I have friends and supporters working in all of the campaigns,” Jeb wrote in an e-mail response to questions from NEWSWEEK. “I told them all I would stay out of the race. I am proud of their efforts and those of their candidates, all of whom are fine men.” One of Jeb’s top fundraisers, Mark Guzzetta, who’s now national finance chairman for former Gov. Mitt Romney, says he had breakfast with Jeb last week. “The current political stuff was not on the forefront” of his concerns, says Guzzetta.

Like Guzzetta, numerous other Jeb advisers and fundraisers migrated to Romney’s campaign early on. Among them: former chief of staff Sally Bradshaw, former Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, former state GOP chairman Al Cardenas and former state House speaker Allan Bense. “It gave sort of an implied blessing” to Romney, says one Tallahassee-based Republican strategist. Both Bradshaw and Guzzetta say they joined the Romney camp with Jeb’s approval. Yet Jeb hasn’t publicly said anything that could be interpreted as an endorsement of the former Massachusetts governor. Nor, it seems, is he doing much behind the scenes to help sway the Sunshine State’s primary. He did, however, chime in after Crist’s endorsement of McCain, in a way that some interpreted as a subtle rebuke to Crist. “I respect the governor’s decision, but Republican voters will determine who they want among very fine candidates,” he wrote in an e-mail to the Associated Press.

And then there were two.

If you're a Floridian sick of the fluidity and uncertainty of this year's Republican race, vote for McCain. Notched alongside New Hampshire and South Carolina on his belt, a Florida win would cement McCain's frontrunner status once and for all and catapult him into the GOP's 21 Super Tuesday contests--the biggest of which, like California and New York, he's already winning by sizable margins--with nearly unstoppable momentum. But if you prefer to prolong the indecision, pull the lever for Romney. Giving the former Massachusetts governor his first major win--Wyoming and Nevada were uncontested; Michigan was his home state--would put him on equal footing with the gentleman from Arizona and position Feb. 5 to be the single most unpredictable day in a primary season that's seen no shortage of unpredictability.

Today, McCain is hoping to seal the deal; Romney, to stay alive. With nearly every one the 25 polls taken since Jan. 19 showing a dead-heat, this week's bitter backbiting left no doubt about how high the stakes are for each campaign. The race started substantively enough. Romney pitched himself, per usual, as the man ready to repair a wobbling economy; McCain stuck to his pro-surge, national-security credentials and hoped the voters would choose character over pocketbook concerns (a call echoed by key endorsers Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez). But last weekend, things got nasty. McCain (erroneously) accused Romney of supporting a "secret timetable" for withdrawal from Iraq; both sides dropped the dreaded "L-word." As the clock ticked down yesterday, the vitriol only increased, with McCain saying that Romney's campaign is based on 'the wholesale deception of voters," and Romney responding that McCain will "say anything to get elected." Meanwhile, vicious robocalls continued to interrupt dinners statewide. An elderly Romney supporter told me yesterday that a caller--probably a push-poll "interviewer"--had implied (falsely) that Romney favored abortion and opening the borders. "I said, 'I don't like these questions," she recalled. "And then he said, 'Neither do I, ma'am.' Can you believe that!"

With Floridians eager for the mudslingers to move on, it's still unclear what happens next. If McCain finishes first, it will prove that he doesn't need Independents to win, providing a powerful rebuttal to Romney's charge that McCain isn't a "real Republican"; unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, only the party faithful can participate in the Florida primary. It'll be hard for Romney to spin even a close second; Florida is winner-take-all, and, as Mitt has said, "I'm not looking for gold stars on my forehead like I'm in first grade. I'm looking to rack up the delegates I need to win the nomination." A wave of positive headlines--after all, McCain once called the press his "base," and pundits are salivating at the prospect of crowning someone the frontrunner--will likely boost his (already strong) poll numbers in California and the delegate-rich northeast (expect him to focus on those two areas in the run-up to Super Tuesday). Voters initially attracted to Giuliani's macho rhetoric will continue to flock to McCain, and Huckabee will keep his fervent social conservative constituency just out of Romney's reach for as long as possible. Mac will be hard to beat.

And if Romney wins? Who the heck knows. It seems safe to say that Mitt will get a boost--how big will depend on his margin--and I expect that the race would then be neck-and-neck until the returns come in next Tuesday. But that's just a guess. Frankly, hacks like me might have to give the predictions a rest until (at least) Feb. 6. 

Either way, the Republican race won't end tonight. A Romney-McCain title bout on Super Tuesday will polarize the party, and there are enough rabid anti-McCain conservatives out there to fuel the MittMobile for the foreseeable future. Plus, Romney's got far more cash in his war chest than McCain--no small advantage now that air time matters more than face time.

For the moment, at least, neither campaign is planning much beyond tomorrow's debate at the Reagan Library in California. It's a small acknowledgment of an obvious truth: after tonight, everything will change. Until then, the only thing to do is cross those fingers and wait.

Final Pre-Primary Polling Average: Fourth Place, 12.9 percent (1.8 behind Giuliani, 17.2 behind Romney, 17.8 behind McCain)
Current National Polling Average: Third Place, 18.8 percent (1.5 behind Romney, 7.5 behind McCain)

Mike Huckabee won't win Florida. He won't finish second. But the difference between third and fourth could make a huge impact heading into Super Tuesday.

Here's why. South Carolina was Huckabee's firewall state. After a stunning insurgent victory in Iowa, the hope was that he'd sweep the First in the South primary, finally fill his war chest,  fly into Florida with enough steam to win and wake up on Feb. 5 as the frontrunner. But losing to McCain in the Palmetto State stalled Huck's already paltry fundraising efforts, and he arrived here last week without enough money to compete in the Sunshine State's seemingly endless (and expensive) media markets. Since then, he's largely ceded Florida to his rivals, scheduling no more than one or two in-state appearances per day.

Which means that expectations are low. If Huckabee places fourth, it'll be difficult to claim any momentum heading into Super Tuesday, and his conservative supporters may coalesce around the more viable Romney. (Not that he'd drop out; advisors have downplayed today's vote, saying, "A close fourth [place] will be fine.") But if the former Arkansas governor comes from behind to defeat Giuliani, who has spent 58 days in Florida while staking his entire campaign on the state, he could get a boost in friendly Feb. 5 contests like Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia and, of course, Arkansas, which represent more than 25% of the delegates needed for the Republican nomination. Huckabee, in fact, has spent the last week jetting between Florida and the Deep South in an effort to shore up support. A bronze won't be enough to propel him to the nomination, but at this point every strong showing--especially among evangelicals still wary of frontrunners Romney and McCain--makes him a more attractive pick for vice president.

At least, that is, for McCain. When Romney accused the Arizona senator of "dishonesty" Saturday, Huckabee rushed to his defense. "Dishonest? I’ve never seen John McCain say something that is just blatantly untrue,” Huckabee said. "We have a civil approach to presidential process. Neither of us has sought the office by cracking the kneecaps of the other."

Hmm. I wonder whom he's rooting for tonight.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.--Another day, another completely unpredictable presidential contest.

Two weeks ago, it looked like the Florida primary would be a four man free-for-all: Mitt Romney vs. John McCain vs. Rudy Giuliani vs. Mike Huckabee. Since then, the field has narrowed, and as the voters of Florida finally head to the polls today, it appears they'll choose either Romney, the economic Mr. Fix-It, or McCain, the national security flyboy. That said, no one has any idea which of the two they'll choose; the latest surveys show the frontrunners neck-and-neck at about 30 percent. The stakes couldn't be higher--whomever caps the bitter Sunshine State battle with a win will ride into Super Tuesday with the last, precious piece of momentum, and in such a fractured, overdrawn field, the Big Mo could make all the difference. With the trail largely deserted, I'll spend the day posting short analyses of what's next for Romney, McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee.

Stayed tuned, and thanks for reading,
Andrew
 

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories--live from the Hampton Inn in St. Petersburg, Florida.

FOR DEMOCRATS, A GLEEFUL STATE OF THE UNION
(Carl Hulse, New York Times)
Democrats sat quietly while Republicans cheered many of the president’s applause lines, no longer afraid of seeming to slight Mr. Bush. They snickered at some points and some called aloud for a return of troops from Iraq. “Bring them home, bring them home,” they chanted. Even Republicans acknowledged the sense that an era was ending with Mr. Bush, still low in the polls and running out of time, stepping up to the teleprompters in the House one last time. One Senate ally said he sensed that the White House was going through the motions. And Republicans admit, privately, that they face a political challenge in November given the unpopularity of the war in Iraq and rising fears about the economy.

AND: A Frosty Moment Between Clinton, Obama (AP)

FLORIDA ELECTION A BAROMETER FOR THE COUNTRY
(Marc Caputo and Lesley Clark, Miami Herald)
The biggest and most diverse swing state is about to render its verdict on the presidency and politics, and here's what it will say to the nation. 

MCCAIN, ROMNEY GO ANOTHER ROUND IN FLA.
(Michael D. Shear and Perry Bacon, Jr.)
The front-runners in the Florida Republican primary exchanged some of their sharpest criticisms of the campaign on Monday, with each seeking a win on Tuesday that would provide a big haul of delegates and a burst of momentum heading into a Feb. 5 mega-primary. With polls showing the race a dead heat between Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the intensity of the vitriol from both sides increased as the clock ticked down. Romney said McCain would set the nation on a "liberal Democratic course"; McCain responded by saying that Romney's campaign is based on "the wholesale deception of voters." Romney shot back that McCain will "say anything to get elected; it's not going to work."

AGE MAY HELP MCCAIN IN FLORIDA
(Alex Frangos, Wall Street Journal)
Much is made of John McCain's 71 years. In Florida, his seniority could be a boon among older voters, many of whom have already cast ballots in early voting... In the tight Florida Republican primary, where Mr. McCain is neck and neck with Mitt Romney, the candidate who carries the older set will likely come out the victor today. Senior citizens account for 16.8% of Florida's population, compared with 12.4% nationwide, according to the Census Bureau, and are the most avid voters. 

OR: Is McCain Fighting a Losing Battle? (Time) 

LESS OF A DRAW, A SUBDUED GIULIANI STAYS UPBEAT
(Michael Cooper, New York Times)
The Giuliani campaign chartered a 727 on Monday for a day of barnstorming on the eve of Tuesday’s big primary, but none of the rallies at airports in Sanford, Clearwater, Fort Myers or Fort Lauderdale drew even a hundred supporters. Mr. Giuliani’s edge on the airwaves has dissipated, too, as his rivals are now outspending him on television. And Mr. Giuliani has found himself an afterthought in some local coverage of the primary, which has centered on Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney, who lead in polls. 

HOW THE KENNEDY NOD HELPS OBAMA
(Karen Tumulty, Time)
Ted Kennedy, though visibly frailer as he nears his 76th birthday, can be a formidable ally to have on your side— something Obama needs as he heads into Super Tuesday with polls showing Hillary Clinton leading him in all but two of the 22 states that will be voting on February 5. The Obama campaign is planning a full schedule for Kennedy, particularly in places, such as the Latino community, where Obama remains an unknown quantity and the Kennedy name still carries enormous emotion. Kennedy also carries significant clout with organized labor, which could be looking for a new candidate to rally behind, now that John Edwards' star has faded. 

BROOKS: The Kennedy Mystique (New York Times)

CLINTON ADJUSTS TACTICS IN RUN TO SUPER TUESDAY
(Heidi Przybyla and Indira Lakshmanan, Bloomberg News)
Barack Obama, fresh from a landslide victory over Hillary Clinton in the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary, plans to continue a campaign that is long on the need for change and inspiration and short on specifics. The question in the tight Democratic race is how Clinton, a New York senator, will adjust her campaign before the Super Tuesday primary contests in 22 states on Feb. 5, with the early indications that her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will be less visible and she will focus more on the economy.

TWO PLAYS FOR LATINO VOTE
(Jonathan Kaufman and Gerald F. Seid, Wall Street Journal)
The Hispanic vote is huge in many of the states voting Feb. 5. California is the biggest prize both in overall size and in the impact of the Hispanic vote. Hispanics make up 22.8% of the eligible voters in California, a study by the Pew Hispanic Center indicates. In Arizona, Hispanics constitute 17% of eligible voters, in Colorado 12.3%, New York 11.4% and New Jersey 9.9%. The challenge for Mrs. Clinton will be to spur a high turnout among a traditionally low-turnout group of voters... Overall, two-thirds of Latino voters supported Mrs. Clinton in Nevada, according to exit polls. Other surveys put Mrs. Clinton's support among Latinos nationally at close to 60%. The Clinton campaign refers to Latinos as their "firewall." At the same time, Mr. Obama's candidacy is exposing the long-simmering hostility between blacks and Latinos in some neighborhoods and in politics.

POWER THROUGH DELEGATES MAY BE EDWARDS STRATEGY
(Julie Bosman, New York Times)
Mr. Edwards has shown no sign of quitting, and his advisers have insisted that he still hopes to capture the nomination. But they have also floated other rationales for a continued Edwards candidacy, suggesting that his delegates could be used to promote his platform or to help him act as a power broker at the Democratic convention. “We’re still hoping that John is the nominee,” said David Bonior, the national campaign manager. “But with a chunk of delegates, you can leverage what you’ve been fighting for and standing for."
 

JACKSONVILLE, Fla.—Mitt Romney may say he likes "change," but he's basically stuck to the same entrance song since launching his campaign about a year ago: Elvis Presley's "A Little Less Conversation," whose chorus ("A little less conversation, a little more action") is meant, I suppose, to evoke the former Massachusetts governor's optimistic Mr. Fix-It attitude—and not the impatience with foreplay that so vexed the King.

But tonight in an(other) airplane hangar, this one here in Jacksonville, a new cut showed up on the playlist—the Temptations classic "Ain't Too Proud Too Beg." I can't imagine that it was particularly welcome—assuming anyone but me noticed. On "Beg," you'll recall, singer David Ruffin spends 2:35 professing his willingness to do anything he can—"sleep(ing) on your doorstep," com(ing) and plead(ing) to you, baby" and, of course, "beg(ging)"—to "keep you from walking away." Not exactly the best theme song for a pol trying to shake his image as a panderer unashamed to say anything for a vote.

When asked, campaign aides claimed they had nothing to do with the evening's musical accompaniment, which also included the tender Tom Petty ballad "Wildflowers." (A point in their favor.) But the local A/V guys begged to differ, arguing that they simply played the CD they were given. The truth is still, as they say, out there. But when Ruffin's rasp faded, a familiar twang rang out through the room. The next track: "Walk the Line," Johnny Cash's deathless rockabilly ode... to the virtues of staying steadfast and true.

Talk about changing your tune.
 

By Holly Bailey 

TAMPA, Fla.--John McCain has been marching into rallies to the theme from “Rocky” in recent weeks, and now we know why. With polls showing the senator virtually tied with Mitt Romney heading into tomorrow’s Florida primary, the race has become a total slugfest, getting uglier and uglier by the minute. The animosity between the McCain and Romney camps is well known, but these days, the two are not even trying to conceal their disdain for the other.
 
Today’s fight began just after sunrise, when Romney went after McCain’s record on campaign finance reform, immigration and global warming. “Look at the three things Sen. McCain has done as senator," Romney said. "If you want that kind of a liberal, democratic course as president, then you can vote for him. But those three pieces of legislation, those aren't conservative, those aren't Republican, those are not the kind of leadership we need as we go forward." Ouch.
 
Naturally, it didn’t take long for McCain to get word of what Romney had said. After his first event this morning, a roundtable in Jacksonville, McCain laughed sarcastically when asked to respond to Romney’s comment. “He is consistent,” McCain sneered. “He has consistently taken both sides of every major issue. He has consistently flip-flipped on every major issue.” Trying hard to keep a smile on his face, McCain cited Romney’s change of heart on immigration reform, efforts to prevent global warming and campaign finance reform, things he said Romney once supported. “People,” McCain said. “Just look at his record as governor. He has consistently taken two sides of every major issue, sometimes more than two. So congratulations.” Eek.
 
And that’s not even getting into the verbal warfare that’s been going on between the candidates’ aides all day. The biggest victim of it all: reporters covering the campaign, whose inboxes have been slammed with email after email from the campaigns fighting it out over who went negative first. “This is the McCain way,” wrote Romney spokesman Kevin Madden. “Senator McCain always sinks to a lower level and offers distortions and flailing attacks against his opponents… His agitation is always on display when a race gets close.” Asked by reporters traveling with McCain to respond, Mark Salter, McCain’s longtime senior aide, accused Romney of starting a “tidal wave of negativity.”
 
During a break between campaigning today in Orlando, McCain granted an interview to the Christian Broadcasting Network’s David Brody who asked the senator point blank if he liked Romney. “I don’t know him well personally,” replied McCain, who went on to speak at length about how much he likes Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani. “I’ve gotten to know these other candidates and gotten to like them very much. I just haven’t gotten to know Governor Romney.” Yeah, that sounds like a no.

When I arrive at the rear of the aircraft, it’s there in 18-B, just as promised: “Romano-Wewsweek.” I will note that I was assigned to the second-to-last row, not the last. I will also note that there is no one assigned to the row behind me. The fewer obstacles between me and the toilet, the better. That’s what I always say.
 

There are, of course, several benefits to flying aboard MittAir. For starters, you can work in transit. Since I cover both parties, I try to hop from one candidate to the next as frequently as possible; that means I’ll typically travel by rental car, speeding across, say, South Carolina from stop to stop. It’s considerably easier, I’ve found, to blog aboard a plane—as I’m doing right now—than at the wheel of a Chevy Impala. Also, I can eat, which is nearly impossible when I’m in roadhog mode; by the time I conduct interviews, write a post, upload photos and program my GPS, the candidate’s caravan is already halfway to the next stop (with the chauffeured press corps happily tapping away in their seats). I’m usually reduced to slaloming around oblivious commuters at 90 mph while checking the rearview every three seconds or so for cops. Plus there's none of that "tray tables stowed and seatbacks in their upright and locked positions" baloney on a charter plane. No one even tells you to turn off your BlackBerry.

That said, paying $1,600 for the privilege of hopping from airplane hangar to airplane hangar to hear Romney repeat the same 20 minutes of “Washington is Broken” patter can get a little tiresome. When you’re part of the caravan, you’re stuck in the bubble. You only have a few minutes to talk to voters, which is typically my favorite part of the job. And when something actually happens—today, for example, a rival campaign is reportedly conducting robocalls that accuse Romney of planning to re-open relations with Fidel Castro, a big no-no in heavily Cuban South Florida—you only really see one side of the story. After the last rally, in Panama City, Romney state chairman Al Cardenes staged a hasty media avail to rebut the claims and all but accuse McCain of making the calls. The embeds swarmed and zipped dispatches back to their editors. But to be honest, I had a hard time grasping the bigger picture in the few seconds I had before reboarding the plane. And it's tough to learn more when you're connecting to the Internet through AT&T's glacial cellular network.

But I guess that’s not really the point. The folks from ABC, NBC, CBS, the New York Times and AP—young, hardy, skeptical types who, unlike me, go for weeks on the trail without returning home—are the eyes and ears of their news organizations, deployed to transmit the who, what, where, when and why back to their nerve centers in New York and D.C. You'll hear them say "What day is it today?" one moment, and gush about how they love really knowing the ins and out of a single campaign the next. Not sure I’d want to trade places with them—or that they’d want to trade with me.

Still, I’m enjoying the ride. And the enchiladas.

Sort of.

Still SANFORD, Fla.—I love colorful metaphors as much as the next pretentious writer, but this might be a bit florid even for my tastes.

From State Rep. D. Alan Hays' introduction of Romney: 

"When I hear the word 'mitt,' it takes me back to my high-school days, when I was playing baseball. I was a catcher and a first baseman, and a mitt is what I always wore. And a mitt gave me assurance that I was gonna have a clean catch. Nice, clean, you can really get that ball in there and grab it. It's the same way Mitt Romney won't drop the ball as President of the United States."

Hmm. I never thought of it that way.

SANFORD, Fla.--Amid his typical remarks here at the Avion Jet Center at Sanford-Orlando International Airport----illegal immigration, the economy, taxes--Mitt Romney managed to slip in a little surprise.

"John McCain is a hero," he said. "But his views on the economy are I think something summed up by his own statement: it's not really something he understands that well. He said that a couple of times and even said that when he chose his vice president, it'd have to be somebody who really understood the economy." Dramatic pause. "Well, I do understand the economy."

The line earned him his loudest and longest applause of the rally. But the punchline was yet to come. Ten seconds later, when the cheering died down, Romney cracked a smile.

"And I'm not going to be vice president to John McCain, either." 

Rejected! We're sure Mac will cry himself to sleep tonight over that one.

Mike Huckabee, on the other hand...
 

The real hopscotching doesn't start until Wednesday, when the final pre-Feb. 5 primary, Florida, is over. In the week between then and Super Tuesday, each campaign will make tough decisions about where best to spend its time, energy and money--meaning that time-consuming townhalls will give way to quick rallies geared toward garnering local media coverage. But today's like that in miniature, as each of the three leading Republican candidates--Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani--fly from city to city across the Sunshine State in a mad dash to reach as many voters (and media markets) as possible.

I'll be spending the day with Romney and posting quick dispatches from the road... or, um, the sky. By the time I woke up this morning, the former Massachusetts governor had already held a 6:20 a.m. media availability at an Texaco station in West Palm Beach--sadly, the Exxon he'd originally planned to visit was closed--and a 6:55 a.m. rally at the local airport. By 9:15, he'd flown to Fort Meyers for another appearance. Now we're at the Sanford airport, right outside Orlando. Panama City and and Jacksonville are still to come.

Meanwhile, main rival McCain (they're tied at about 30 percent in the polls ) is down the road at Orlando International, a much more substantial hub. (Sanford has IcelandicAir; Orlando, well, everything else. A sign, perhaps?)  He's already hit Jacksonville and is on to Tampa next. And Giuliani, having already visited Sanford at 8:45 this morning, is at the Fort Meyers airport with now stops scheduled later on the tarmac of Ft. Lauderdale and Florida International University in Miami--the latter at 10:15 p.m.

Wheels up!

ORLANDO, Fla.--As I was motoring up the west coast of Florida yesterday, my BlackBerry would not stop buzzing. Seriously. It was constant. And more often than not, it was a message from John McCain (or, you know, his press shop).

For the record, I will note that there's at least one politician in America who's not so keen on McCain: Mitt Romney. The proof:

 

Since Saturday afternoon, half of the 13 messages sent out by the Romney camp have been attacks on the Arizona Senator; only one was an endorsement of Romney. They booed him for working with Hillary Clinton and other Dems. They razzed him on the economy--or "McCainonomics." And they even slammed one of his many endorsements: the dreaded, liberal New York Times!

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories--live from the Hilton Garden Inn in sunny Orlando.

STRATEGIZING FOR SUPER TUESDAY
(Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal)  
For weeks, presidential candidates have waged battle one state at a time. But now the race enters a new phase, with candidates delving into the complex coast-to-coast contest known as Super Tuesday, and tough decisions are being made about where and how to compete. On Feb. 5, voters in 22 states will cast ballots. More than half of all Democratic delegates and over 40% of Republican delegates are at stake in a pair of races that remain far from settled.

MORE: Hard Choices on the Path to Feb. 5 (Washington Post) 

MCCAIN, ROMNEY BATTLE FOR FLORIDA, MOMENTUM ON CRUCIAL FEB. 5 SLATE
(Mark Silva and Tim Jones)
Unease about the future of the state's economy weighs heavily on the minds of Floridians facing a heated presidential primary election Tuesday that could prove pivotal to the 2008 campaign for the White House -- potentially catapulting the hopes of one Republican and scuttling the hopes of others. Swing voters have made this central "I-4 Corridor," built around a ribbon of highway stretching from Tampa on the Gulf Coast to Daytona Beach on the Atlantic, into prime hunting territory in the final days of Florida's primary campaign. A boost in Central Florida could be the winning formula for any of the GOP's leading contenders heading into the spree of big-state primaries on Feb. 5. 

OBAMA AND CLINTON GO NATIONWIDE WITH MORE AIRTIME, LESS FACETIME
(John McCormick and Mike Dorning, Chicago Tribune)
After months of toiling mostly in just four states, the Democratic nomination battle has gone national, now literally a coast-to-coast affair that will make the past town hall gatherings and one-on-one meetings seem like quaint and distant memories. This is the big-stage, tarmac-to-tarmac phase of the fight, which some expect may drag on into March or even April.

MCCAIN'S ONE-TWO FLORIDA PUNCH
(Jonathan Martin, Politico)
With Florida Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist throwing him their support, the Arizona senator might be able to drive local coverage in the final hours and obscure the economic message rival Mitt Romney used to dominate last week.  A victory in the Republican-only Sunshine State primary would cement McCain's status as the GOP front-runner and put him in a commanding position to wrap up his party's nomination on Super Tuesday. The late support for McCain sets up a contest that will pit momentum versus organization. With Crist and Martinez on board, McCain seems to hold the hot hand. But his organization here, basically nonexistent after his campaign implosion last summer, pales in comparison to Romney's well-tended grassroots operation, one set up by backers of former Gov. Jeb Bush.

CAN ROMNEY'S INNER GEEK WIN OUT?
(Michael Scherer, Time)
If you talk to any other Republican campaign about Romney, you will hear a mixture of venom and mocking disdain... They are envious of his near-bottomless bank account, revolted by his hard-nosed attacks and turned off by his chameleon-like handling of the issues. They interpret his hokey demeanor and polished presentation as a fundamental lack of character. And they are right that Romney has behaved poorly, and offered real reasons for voters to be suspicious of his convictions. But they are wrong to think he lacks a solid core. Romney is, at heart, the geeky consultant he spent his life becoming. He is a salesman and a number-cruncher, a goofball and a social stiff. He literally will talk about humor as something that can be decided upon in the boardroom.

CONTINUED AFTER THE JUMP... 

"I was like, 'Dude, Rudy Giuliani at Ron Jon's, you know?" he told me afterwards. "What's the connection there?"

Not much, it turns out. Unlike the day's earlier events--synagogue, pizza parlor, Italian-American club--the stop at Ron Jon was less a targeted appeal to one of Rudy's natural constituencies than, well, a whim. According to the Ron Jon manager responsible for arranging the appearance, Giuliani spotted the Ron Jon billboards last time he was cruising the western coast of Florida and was "intrigued." And while Rudy might be the last person in the world I can imagine noseriding a Yater 'Spoon' down the face of a glassy four-footer, Ron Jon was happy to have him. "All these people and newspapers guys in the store?" the manager said. "No brainer." He was quick to add that Ron Jon does not endorse any candidate.

Thankfully, Rudy did not utter the word "cowabunga," sticking instead to, as one supporter put it, "the usual: defeating the terrorists, winning the war, cutting taxes." He not exactly the windiest candidate--at 15 minutes flat, the Ron Jon remarks set the day's speed record--or the loosest. Neil Orstman, a 65-year-old New Yorker in town on a camping trip, waited for a "lull in the patter" to ask why the Big Apple is "still a sanctuary city." Giuliani didn't blink--or respond. "It's not like I was a supporter anyway," said a peeved Orstman.

Harris, though, begged to differ. "Rudy's a pretty smooth cat," he said. "I like him. While McCain and Romney are going at it, he's sitting back, chilling. I bet he'll get a boost at the end." As a show of solidarity--or perhaps pure pranksterism--Harris managed to sneak around the back of the bus and slap a Ron Jon sticker on its bumper. He did, however, have one complaint. When I told him that I spent my childhood summers a few blocks from the original Ron Jon on Long Beach Island, N.J.--I also happen to be a half-Jewish, half-Italian pizza aficionado who lives in Brooklyn, so you can see why I chose this particular day to roadtrip with Rudy--he laughed. "It feels like New Jersey Ron Jon's here tonight," he said. "Too damn cold. I think you guys brought the weather down with you." After spending a day in Hizzoner's "element," it seemed almost possible.

Or maybe not. As I was saying goodbye to Harris, a silver sports coupe pulled up to the curb. "Who's that?" asked a swarthy teenager in the passenger seat, pointing to Giuliani's bus.

"The mayor of New York," said Harris. He arched his eyebrows as if to say, Are you serious?

Apparently, the kid was serious.

"He was the mayor of New York," Harris repeated. No response. "And, um he's running for president?" Still nothing. "Sept. 11 and all?"

And then, at last, a flicker of recognition.

"You mean the bald guy?"

VERO BEACH, Fla.--I spotted the sign as I pulled up to the Italian-American Civic Association here in Vero Beach, stuck in the lawn right next to a RUDY placard: "PASTA DINNER SUNDAY" and then, in Magic Marker, "4:15-7:15." At first, I was confused. One of the other signs said the feast was set to start at 4:00 sharp. Then it hit me.

The kind men and women of the Civic Association had graciously delayed their dinner. For 15 whole minutes. For a potential president.

Trust me. For us Italian-Americans--"Romano," I'm told, isn't Scandinavian--15 minutes is an eternity when you're waiting for some spaghetti.

Good thing Giuliani was running right on schedule. At 3:00 on the dot, he pulled up in his "Florida is Giuliani Country" bus, the "Rudy" soundtrack blaring from the PA, and sprinted to the stage. With a "Tested. Ready. Now" banner behind him, Hizzoner shifted the spotlight from terrorism--this morning's obsession--to the economy, the top concern of the retirees in attendance. "I'm the only Republican who's done a turnaround of a major economy," he said. "I left New York City a much stronger place than what was handed to me. I can do the same thing for the country, with the same principles." Cue geriatric cheering, which was exceeded in volume only when Rudy promised to "fight hard to make sure your social security is secure." Go figure.

Three stops into my Roadtrip with Rudy, I have to wonder whether appealing to the constituencies that would back you no matter what--Jews, Italians, former New Yorkers, pizza lovers--is the best way to mount a Florida comeback. After the rally, I asked a wiry little fellow originally from Bensonhurst, Brooklyn if he was an Italian-American. "I'm Italian," he said. "Speak it, too." You a Giuliani supporter? "Oh yeah. Ever since he was mayor. Did a good job on... what you call it? 5-11?" 9/11? I ventured. "That's right. 9/11." It's obvious that Giuliani is spending the day playing to his strengths and hoping to lure as many of these core "no questions asked" supporters to the polls as possible. But there's a certain futility implied, as if he's tacitly conceding that he's lost the larger blocs--national-security Republicans, for example, who are flocking to McCain--and is now content to nibble around edges in the final hours before the primary.

Speaking of nibbling, Giuliani wrapped up his remarks a brief 25 minutes after arriving. An Italian-American himself, perhaps he sensed the oncoming meal--or smelled it, rather, as the aroma of tomato sauce wafted through the room. Either way, five minutes later, the buffet pans were out, the fixins bar was ready and the rows of chairs had been replaced by a banquet arrangement. Rudy's bus was still in the lot. "Wow, that was really fast," said one Giuliani staffer. There were already little cups of grated parmesan in the middle of each table. 

The maverick, Reagan-era, red-bereted citizen crime fighters were out in full force at Rudy's appearance just now in Port Saint Lucie. It only added to the event's odd Big-Apple atmosphere. There was, of course, the pizza--Paisano's Gourmet, to be exact. (Giuliani didn't bother to taste any). There were also cops, showing off enough sirens and flashing lightbars to make Hizzoner feel right at home. And then there was the couple I spoke to afterwards: she with big, black hair and tight pants, he with a big black mustache--and tight pants. I asked if Rudy had said anything that special. "No," she said. "But that's only because we already know everything about him. We're big fans." Are you from Florida? I asked. (They didn't look particularly Floridian.) "New York," she said. But of course. "I lived there before Rudy, with all the crime and corruption, and I saw how he turned it around. He'll do the same thing for America." She waved her cigarette regally.

The only un-New York note: Giuliani tsk-tsking his rivals for being too combative. “Well, I think my opponents should not be attacking each other,” he said, referring to Romney and McCain's ongoing spat over Iraq. Fuggedaboutit.

It's ironic. Now that Giuliani's tied with John McCain in New York--he used to lead by 33 points--the Empire State itself may not be guaranteed "Giuliani Country." But down here in the Sunshine State, the former mayor is still counting on his paisans to make him king of the hill. Or top of the heap.

That said, Rudy might've done well to take it a bit slower, Southern-style. Less than a half-hour after he arrived, he was back on his bus. One Guardian Angel told me that he "wish[ed] he'd hung around a little longer."

Nothing like a New York minute to keep 'em wanting more.
 

 
BOCA RATON, Fla.—We’re not in Iowa anymore, Toto.

Rudy Giuliani just wrapped up his first stop on Sunday’s “Florida is Giuliani Country” tour—a pizzeria, Italian-American club and surf shop are still come-—and it’s pretty clear already why the Hawkeye State never earned that particular sobriquet. It’s kind of hard to imagine, for example, that Giuliani could deliver a line like “I used to tell Ehud Olmert, when he was mayor of Jerusalem, that I had more Jewish citizens that he did” to rapturous applause in, say, Maquoketa.

But it killed at the Boca Raton Synagogue.

His gleaming pate partially covered by a yarmulke, Hizzoner was surprisingly sanguine—even sedate—for someone on the cusp of losing his firewall state.  He did his usual “Islamic terrorists’ war against us” shtick, saying that he could sum up his approach in one word: “offense.” “They want to conquer us, destroy us, take us over,” he added. But much of the speech was spent rattling off his Jewish bona fides, including the fact that he visited Israel three times as mayor, once booted Yasir Arafat from Lincoln Center and was born in Brooklyn—another line that wouldn't have had quite the same effect in Iowa.

It seemed almost half-hearted, to be honest—as if the mayor had already accepted his fate and was merely going through the motions--and I came away less impressed with Giuliani than I’d been in the past. But then again, I’m not part of the choir he’s preaching to. (So to speak.) After the event, local teacher Vicki Hercsky, 47, told me that a vote for Giuliani is “common sense.” “I don’t even know how it could be a question,” she said. “Now with Israel in the state it’s in… you don’t stand up, you get pushed over.” I asked if she’d be disappointed to see Rudy lose.

“Not disappointed,” she said. “Devastated.”

We'll see Tuesday if there are enough Vicki Hercskys left in "Giuliani Country" to keep that from happening.

BOCA RATON, Fla.—Rudy Giuliani has seen better days.

Take, for example, Dec. 16, 2007, the day CNN and Gallup released a national poll showing Giuliani crushing his rivals for the Republican nomination by 11 points. Or, for that matter, any day before Dec. 16, 2007, when he led the field by as much as 24. In every single poll. Here in Florida, one need only look to Jan. 7—a mere three weeks ago—to find Giuliani up by seven. If you scroll back to November, the margin expands to 21.

But alas. Today, Giuliani trails Mitt Romney and John McCain by seven in the Sunshine State and places a distant fourth in national surveys behind McCain, Romney and Huckabee. If the early-state voters are to be trusted, Giuliani is currently a less viable contender for the GOP nod than Ron Paul. America's Mayor finished sixth in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire and sixth again in South Carolina; Paul at least managed fifth-place finishes in the Hawkeye and Palmetto States.

It's not hard to see why. Despite what Michael Goodwin writes in today's New York Daily News—"RUDY GIULIANI COULDN'T OVERCOME HIS PRO-CHOICE STANCE"—it's pretty clear (to me, at least) that his downfall has less to do with departures from conservative orthodoxy (which were well-publicized by December, when he was still ahead) than a totally unfavorable primary schedule. Giuliani's strategists realized early on that a pugnacious, socially-liberal Italian-American couldn't compete in sweet, evangelical Iowa, so they retreated to anti-tax, northeastern New Hampshire, where they outspent and outadvertised everyone save Romney. But losing in Iowa made Rudy look like a loser, and so his Granite State poll numbers slipped, too. Looking ahead, the campaign saw South Carolina—no place for somewhat scandalized Yankee-—and Florida. They decided to stake it all on the delegate-rich land of snowbirds, immigrants, Jewish retirees and northeastern transplants. He'll finally be in his element, they thought.

But even though Giuliani hasn't campaigned anywhere else since the first week of January, Florida hasn't returned the favor. Thinking that we might not see much of Rudy after Tuesday's primary—Hizzoner himself has said it's a must-win at this point-—I've decided to spend the day "in his element" with him. Luckily, the campaign has scheduled a bus trip up the western coast of Florida that's almost cartoonishly Rudy. Honestly, for a fellow New Yorker, today's itinerary was just too good to resist: a morning stop at a Jewish synagogue in Boca Raton! Afternoon visits to a pizzeria in Port Saint Lucie and an Italian-American club in Vero Beach!  An evening rally at a New Jersey-based surf shop in Cocoa Beach! The decal on the side of Giuliani's bus says "Florida is Giuliani Country"—a fitting slogan considering that, while he may not win, at least he can get a decent slice while he's at it. 

I'll be posting short dispatches after each stop. Can you say roadtrip? It'll be just like we're back in the Big Apple.

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories--live from the Hilton Garden Inn in lovely Boca Raton, Florida.

THE NEWSWEEK ROSTER:

JUST DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH MYSELF
(Evan Thomas and Suzanne Smalley)
Bill Clinton has morphed from statesman into attack dog. Everyone's barking back—except, perhaps, the voters.

HERE AN F.O.B., THERE AN F.O.B.
(Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball)
Since leaving office, Bill's gotten by with a little help from his friends. Now he's re-examining his circle.

I AM WOMAN, HEAR ME SNORE
(Julia Baird) 
In a new book, 30 female writers critique Hillary Clinton. Again. And again. And still miss the point. 

ROMNEY: 'LOOK AT MY RECORD'
(Howard Fineman)
Romney wants to fix the economy and Washington, but first he has to repair his own reputation.

OBAMA PLAYS OFFENSE
(Jonathan Alter)
The senator tells NEWSWEEK he's 'not going to back down.' But he knows he'll get knocked around.

EVERYTHING TO EVERYONE
(Arian Campo-Flores)
As Feb. 5 draws near, a stark racial divide appears to be hardening. The campaigns are trying to soften it.

A COMPLETE AND UTTER BUZZ KILL
(Holly Bailey)
Thompson's closest aides on how their ex-boss screwed up

 
THE BEST OF THE REST:

OBAMA WINS SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY
(Jeff Zeleny and Marjorie Connelly, New York Times)
Senator Barack Obama won a commanding victory over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday, drawing a wide majority of black support and one-quarter of white voters in a contest that sets the stage for a multistate fight for the party’s presidential nomination. In a bitter campaign here infused with discussions of race, Mr. Obama’s convincing victory puts him on equal footing with Mrs. Clinton — with two wins each in early-voting states — and gives him fresh momentum as the contest plunges into a nationwide battle over the next 10 days. 

A PRESIDENT LIKE MY FATHER
(Caroline Kennedy, New York Times)
Over the years, I’ve been deeply moved by the people who’ve told me they wished they could feel inspired and hopeful about America the way people did when my father was president. This sense is even more profound today. That is why I am supporting a presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama. 

ANALYSIS: RACIAL DIVIDE COULD HURT OBAMA
(Nedra Pickler, Associated Press) 
The questions surrounding Barack Obama's victory in South Carolina: Was the split between white and black voters an anomaly in a state were the Confederate flag still flies on the statehouse grounds? Or has the Clinton campaign successfully marginalized him as the "black candidate?" What's clear is that for Obama to win the nomination, he will have to improve his performance among white voters over South Carolina. Being the clear favorite among blacks won't be enough as the candidates turn to 22 states that hold contests on Feb. 5.

CONTINUED AFTER THE JUMP... 

From the AP: Barack Obama routed Hillary Rodham Clinton in the racially-charged South Carolina primary Saturday night, regaining campaign momentum in the prelude to a Feb. 5 coast-to-coast competition for more than 1,600 Democratic National Convention delegates.

UPDATE, 11:45 p.m: Just arrived in Boca Raton, Fla. (I'm down here to cover Tuesday's Republican primary). As you all know by now, Obama whooped, whipped and/or whumped Clinton in South Carolina, more than doubling the margin the polls predicted (11.8 percent) to win by 27 points. The other thing he doubled? Clinton's vote total. As top strategist David Axelrod put it, tonight was "a good, old-fashioned butt-kicking." Earlier I wrote that Obama, who had long led in the polls, faced impossible odds in the expectations game: "If the Illinois Democrat hits that dozen-digit mark, it's what everyone was anticipating--i.e., no big deal. If he surpasses it, we'll all say 'good for him.'" Well, guess what? He ran the table. With shocked pundits now rhapsodizing over the size of Obama's victory, he'll certainly get better headlines than expected. Will it be enough to overcome the chatter about racial polarization and bloc-voting among blacks, who represented 55 percent of the electorate and chose Obama over Clinton 81 percent to 17 percent? Will it quiet doubts about whether the Illinois senator can woo whites (24 percent to Clinton's 36 and Edwards' 39)? I'll give the predictions a rest for now. We'll find out soon enough.

UPDATE, 12:30 p.m.: In case there was any doubt about how the Clintons would spin Obama's victory (via the Washington Post):

On Saturday, as Sen. Barack Obama was sweeping up the South Carolina primary, former Pres. Bill Clinton was busy downplaying the significance of Obama's impending win, casting it as a function of the state's demographics and the Illinois senator's heavy African American support. "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88," Clinton said at a rally in Columbia. "Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here."

Ron Fournier says that they're running (and winning) "a larger campaign to polarize voters around race and marginalize Obama (in the insidious words of one of her top advisers) as 'The Black Candidate.'" That sure looks true tonight.

Will it backfire? The comments are all yours.

 

Dear reader(s), 

We almost didn't make it. A full week has passed since the last nominating contests, forcing Stumper to resort to nutty indulgences like "spending time with friends" and "taking a shower" to deal with the effects of withdrawal. But finally the day has come; while I type, South Carolina Democrats are heading to the polls to vote for their candidates of choice. As with Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan and the South Carolina Republican contest, we'll spend the day looking at "what's next" for the remaining contenders as they depart Gamecock Country and fan out across the continent in advance of Feb. 5's coast-to-coast Super Tuesday bonanza.

Thanks for reading,
Andrew

You sit on the floor outside. And get your picture taken doing it.

  

Why, you ask, was I late? Three words: Maurice's Gourmet Barbecue. Yes, again. How can something so wrong feel so right?

Photo from yesterday's John Edwards event in Columbia by Robert Willett of the Raleigh (N.C.) News & Observer. For the rest of his gallery, click here.

Hi everyone. Yesterday, after Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich declared that he was abandoning his bid for president, I posted a light item examining the challenges he faced and the probable reason for his early exit (in 2004, Kucinich continued until the convention). It inspired a lot of angry comments and emails from Kucinich admirers, which is understandable--snarkiness in the style of Wonkette, which I sometimes indulge in, always carries with it the risk of causing offense. This morning, though, I suddenly remembered that I'd actually had a conversation with the congressman, so I decided to post an addendum.

It was May 4, 2007, and I was working on article for Newsweek about presidential courage. I'd sent messages to all of the candidates' spokespeople, asking for short lists of the three presidents their bosses most admire. After failing to receive a response from David Swanson, Kucinich's point man, I fired off a follow-up asking if we should hold our breath. "Can try asap," he wrote back. "Can't promise." An hour later, my phone rings--and it's the candidate himself. "Hi," he said. "This is Dennis Kucinich calling."

We spoke for 15 minutes about his presidential heroes. Some folks in the office joked about it, implying that Kucinich had nothing better to do, but I thought it was wonderful that he'd call himself; other so-called "fringe candidates" like Duncan Hunter, Mike Gravel and Jim Gilmore had simply sent ghost-written statements, like the frontrunners. Kucinich was obviously excited to discuss his favorite presidents, and the fact that he called me personally showed uncommon sincerity, authenticity and lack of cynicism--which is exactly what his supporters love about him. Thought I'd share. Excerpts:

Franklin Roosevelt
"His willingness to challenge the nation to support a New Deal created a fundamental restructuring of the purpose of government. Extraordinary. In respect to the potential of government to transform the potential of peoples lives, I admire what he did. He demonstrated the transformational potential of government, in respect to domestic policy. Creating the Social Security system was an amazing development, and the WPA program rebuilt America. That's what I'm talking about during this campaign."

Abraham Lincoln
"The Emancipation Proclamation was just one dimension of Lincoln's genius. He put together a cabinet of people, many of whom were his political opponents. What you see is someone who really lived the principle he articulated in the Second Inaugural: "malice toward none and charity towards all." He showed capacity of heart and of courage in being able to unify opposites. That was his gift not only to America, but to the world. He really knew about uniting an America that was split, and understood the imperative of human unity in a way that was so profound, that the path to unity was not only a matter of structure but a spiritual journey as well. I look to him for inspiration on matters that relate to the potential of the human spirit to surmount powerful differences of opinion, differences that could split a nation."

Jimmy Carter
"I'd say Jimmy Carter -- not for something that happened during his presidency, but for his demonstration of character and courage in his post-White House years. He has shown a capacity of humility and humanity, and an ability to be a builder not just of houses but a builder of peace. He has demonstrated great courage in calling for a new direction in the Middle East. In a sense he's become a president emeritus, redefining the role of an ex-president as a moral leader for the world at a time when such leadership is much needed--and in short supply."

BEAUFORT COUNTY, S.C.--It's 6:22 p.m. and still no Mr. President. He was expected here at the Penn Center on St. Helena Island over an hour ago, at 5:15. But when it comes to Bill and the clock, "expected" is an elastic word--and the natives are getting restless. At 6:23, a gentleman leaning on the barricade in front of the press pen turns around and asks if he can put something down on the chair next to me. "I'm getting cramps holding it here," he says. It's a copy of Dean Koontz's "The Husband" (coincidentally) with a "Hillary for President" placard inserted in the pages like a bookmark--which proves anything causes cramps when you've been holding it for two-and-a-half hours. "So he's known for being late?" the man asks me. At 6:24, a frantic, squealing towheaded two-year-old demands that "Daddy" remove his shoes, then continues to squeal. At 6:25, the crowd starts chanting "We Want Bill! We Want Bill!" Chanting might be an overstatement. They quickly ditch the exclamation points and the cheer subsides.

I'm about to experience a similar deflation. Truth be told, I'm expecting fireworks. That's because I've read the stories that have consumed the press this past week: Bill the "red-faced" attack dog, slapping Barack Obama around, "injecting" race into the national conversation, railing at the monstrous media, doing his wife's dirty work in the Palmetto State while she hops, skips and jumps through the Super Tuesday states. Is he freelancing? Is it part of a larger strategy? Is it helping Hillary? Hurting Hillary? Getting into Obama's head? Like any pack-minded member of the MSM, I want a taste of the action.

Turns out, like Bill, I'm a little late. At 6:31, the former president finally arrives. "I drove three-and-a-half hours to get here," he says. Note the number. With the Clintons' anti-Obama talking points firmly fixed in the headlines, Bubba's in a "World Almanac" mood tonight--and my keyboard fingers can barely keep up with all the facts and figures. The median family income: "$1,000 lower today than when I left office." Number of jobs created in the 1990s: "22.2 million." Hillary's tax credit for college students: "$3,500." Savings if students stop defaulting on loans: "$4 billion." Gallons of oil consumed for every gallon produced: "four." And he's just getting started. "I can stand here and tell you how to reduce the energy we need by 30 to 50 percent," he says. "Our health care system costs 700 billion dollars more than any other system in the world," he adds. "That's the size of the trade deficit." Oh, and in case you forgot, "electronic medical records would save us $80 billion--which is 80 percent of the cost of covering everyone." It's almost like a Mastercard ad. Recruiting, training and deploying a new soldier to Iraq: "$56,000." Sending one Blackwater employee to protect a diplomat: "$135,000." Witnessing a former president spout an endless stream of statistics meant to reassure fretful voters shaken by struggling economy:

Priceless.

Of course, no one can process this much data. But that's the point. Bad Bill did his duty; now Good Bill (wonky, experienced Bill) is back. And his goal is to tout Hillary's "Solutions for America"--the more specifics, the better. "Voters don't care about politicians attacking each other," he has said (after attacking). "They want to know how we'll make their lives better."

Tonight, that's exactly what Bill did--and he only made one mistake. Closing his remarks with an anecdote meant to illustrate Hillary's warmth, he mentioned how a former roommate called up on their 37th wedding anniversary and volunteered to help with the campaign. "So it was last September," he started, then paused, catching his erroneous calculation. "Wait. October." Everyone laughed. It was the only time Clinton got "red-faced" all night.

In all fairness, he said "make their lives better." His might be a different story.

COLUMBIA, S.C.--Nancy Sharpe is regretting her decision. A registered Republican, Sharpe, 76, went to the polls last Saturday and did what a plurality of South Carolina Republican primary voters did: cast her ballot for John McCain. "I thought he'd be best qualified to lead our country in a time of war," she says.

But when I saw Sharpe cheering today at a John Edwards Voter Empowerment Town Hall here in Columbia, she sighed and said that she'd had a change of heart. Her fondness for Edwards, a South Carolina native, was nothing new. Like the former senator, Sharpe's parents both worked in cotton mills--"Pa" from the age of six, when he started as a sweeper, and "Mama" from the age of twelve, when her adopted father passed away and she decided "to give back." "Edwards still remembers," she says. "A lot of people who worked in the cotton mills are still around, 'cause it wasn't too long ago that they closed 'em here in Columbia. I relate to Edwards, his parents and what they're saying. He'd be a president of the people."

But that wasn't enough, I asked, for her to wait and vote Democratic?  "Well, Edwards got better this past week," Sharpe said. "What it was, I don't know. I think he was so mature when Hillary and Obama was fightin'. He stood back and said, 'How silly.'"

Edwards has spent the four days since Monday's vicious debate making the exact same point--and if it's winning over a Republican like Sharpe, it's probably winning over some Democrats, too. "I'm proud to be part of the 'grown-up' wing of the party," he told today's crowd, even though most of them were students; it's also the theme of his new ad (above). "This is the New York and Chicago-style politics of personal attacks and trying to tear people down. South Carolina deserves better than that." Edwards may have spent the weeks leading up to Iowa relentlessly slamming Clinton, but now he's hoping an old political rule holds true: if two rivals are exchanging blows, it's always the third man who benefits. The latest polls show signs of life. On Thursday, Clemson found Edwards in a statistical tie with Clinton for second place (17-20) among past South Carolina Democratic primary voters, and SurveyUSA has him up seven points from last week, to 22 percent--with the New York Senator down seven to 29.

Edwards won't catch Obama, who typically laps him by 20 points. But Hillary has largely ceded Saturday's contest to the Illinois senator, spending much of the week stumping and fundraising in Super Tuesday states. Today, Edwards hammered the former First Lady for "jetting in for a campaign event and flying back" and reminded listeners that he's "from here and understands [their] concerns." "When somebody is turning their back on South Carolina the week before the primary, what do you think will happen after they're elected president?" he asked. It's a good question. If enough of the sizable segment of Democrats who are still undecided break--like Sharpe--for the guy who "relates," expect the unexpected on Saturday night.

UPDATE 1.26.08: Hi everyone. This morning, I suddenly remembered that I'd actually had a conversation with the Congressman Kucinich, so I decided to post an addendum. Can't believe I forgot. When other candidates simply sent press releases, Kucinich called me personally. Read about it here.

And then there were three.

In an interview yesterday with the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich revealed plans to "transition out" of the Democratic presidential race, leaving Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards and the rest of America to continue ignoring his existence.

Sure, Kucinich's unabashedly liberal positions--single-payer health care; immediate withdrawal from NAFTA; a cabinet-level Department of Peace; "fostering a world of international cooperation"--never earned him more than a few points in national surveys. (His unabashedly crazy belief in UFOs probably didn't help.) Yes, Kucinich was reduced in recent weeks to suing NBC (unsuccessfully) for excluding him from debates, launching a recount effort to uncover (non-existent) anti-Kucinich shenanigans* in New Hampshire and filing a (failed) appeal to stay on the ballot in Texas--all of which inevitably distracted the candidate from winning over the thousands upon thousands of voters required to rise from one to two percent in the polls. And it's possible that Kucinich typed "dennis kucinich" into Google Suggest and discovered that more people are searching for "kucinich wife" (1.5 million results) than "kucinich for president" (440,000). It is a truth universally acknowledged that a single man, in possession of eyes, must be in want of a stunning British redhead who towers over him and has a pierced tongue (66,000 results). It's tough to compete.

But the truth is probably more pedestrian. Kucinich, who easily won a sixth congressional term in 2004, is now facing four challengers back in Cleveland--and each of them is using his quixotic presidential campaign (and the time it takes away from representing his constituents) as ammunition. Cleveland Councilman Joe Cimperman, Kucinich's main rival, snuck into the congressman's Lakewood office Jan. 3 "with a camera-toting campaign worker to drop off a 'missing' poster mocking Kucinich's presidential travels," according to the Plain Dealer; he's also criticized Kucinich's Hollywood donors (Michael Moore is a fan). Candidate Barbara Ferris went one step further, citing Kucinich's failure to win the Democratic nod as evidence of his inadequacy. "He was unable to achieve anything running for president; he was unable to achieve in 11 years in Congress," she says. Seems like ignoring your district, hobnobbing with Hollywood and losing a lot of primaries isn't the best reelection strategy--and even someone who believes in little green men is practical enough to see that.

* UPDATE: Actually, Kucinich demanded a recount "because of what he says are unexplained disparities between hand-counted ballots and machine-counted ballots and rumors online of counting errors." It was a effort to ensure "public confidence in the integrity of the election process and the election machinery," not to uncover "anti-Kucinich shenanigans." The source I consulted when writing the article was misleading, and I apologize for the error. Thanks to everyone who pointed out the mistake.

On Jan. 1, we noted some eerie overlap between current Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his Democratic predecessor John Kerry. Both hail from the Bay State. Both speak French. Both grew up wealthy. Both lack the common touch. Both had fathers in government. And both are "rather robotic in person, with stentorian voices permanent stuck on the 'politician' setting."

Two weeks later, top McCain strategist Steve Schmidt added another similarity to the list: they're both "flip-floppers. ""When you have a candidate like Mitt Romney who's been on both sides of every issue," he said, "it's a tremendous liability in a general election."

Now the McCain camp is taking the Kerry analogy one step further--and it may be one step too far. That's right, ladies and gentlemen--they're breaking out the windsurfing (see ad above)."Where does Mitt Romney stand?" asks the voiceover. "Whichever way the wind blows." Kerry, you'll remember, was fond of the water sport, and Bush's opposition researchers soon seized on it as a devastating metaphor for his shifting positions, not to mention his effete, highfalutin ways. (Memo to Obama: buy a stock car.)  Which is why this spot worked so well, and why McCain's clone won't: Romney isn't a windsurfer. The whole metaphor thing kind of requires that your rival actually does the activity in question (see: owning a ranch.) So despite the magic of PhotoShop--or perhaps because of it--the new ad looks painfully forced. 

Back to the drawing board, guys. There's got to be footage of Romney in a robot suit somewhere out there.

A (quick) round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

THE CLINTONS' PATRONIZING STRATEGY (Jonathan Alter, Newsweek)

WHO'S SIDE IS JOE LIEBERMAN ON? (Jeffrey Bartholet, Newsweek) 

WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE GOP RACE? (RealClear Politics) 

HAS GIULIANI BLOWN IT? (National Review) 

EDWARDS RISES IN S.C. Polls (The State) 

FOR EDWARDS, A ROLE AS A POSSIBLE KINGMAKER (Wall Street Journal) 

DEMOCRATS TEST MESSAGES IN EARLY NATIONWIDE ADS (New York Times)

THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN'S SILENT SHAKE-UP (New Republic)

CLINTON CAMPAIGN SEES VALUE IN KEEPING FORMER PRESIDENT IN ATTACK MODE (New York Times) 

CLINTON, OBAMA BACK OFF ATTACKS (Washington Post) 

CLINTON'S DEPRESSING ASSAULT ON OBAMA (Washington Post) 

THE HOARSE RACE: WHEN CANDIDATES LOSE THEIR VOICES (Wall Street Journal)

Here's NEWSWEEK'S Holly Bailey from Boca Raton with a report on last night's Republican snoozefest... or, um, "debate":

Maybe Fred Thompson should have stayed in after all. His droll one-liners might have enlivened what was one of the flattest performances yet from a group of GOP candidates who have done battle on the debate stage 18 times before. Familiarity is breeding contempt-not among the combatants, but perhaps among members of the viewing audience.

As the Democratic field has narrowed to a two-candidate contest, the back-and-forth has grown more intense, as evidenced by the sharp sticks Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama poked in each others' eyes last Monday, during a Martin Luther King Day smackdown in South Carolina. But the GOP field has remained a bit more fluid. Florida's crucial Republican primary looms on Jan. 29-a vote which may well determine whether Rudy Giuliani can stay in the race, whether John McCain builds on his past victories to establish a serious head of steam heading into Super Tuesday, whether Mitt Romney can muster Southern appeal, and whether Mike Huckabee has a prayer. But instead of taking sharp aim at one another, the leading Republican candidates seemed more interested in getting their licks in against Clinton, too.

If you somehow missed the first 75 minutes of the debate, broadcast on MSNBC from Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, Fla., thank your lucky stars. Did anyone try to stand out? Not really. In spite of an attempt at serious questions about what to do about the struggling economy, the candidates stuck to their usual talking points, extolling the virtues of tax cuts, endorsing stimulus plans and cutting spending. Giuliani talked up his time as mayor of New York City, again; in a guaranteed applause line, McCain trashed the Bridge to Nowhere-four times to be exact. It felt like the film Groundhog Day-except for the few mentions of Florida-centric issues like the National Catastrophic Fund, which Giuliani supports and the other candidates are slightly iffy on. (Guess what's going to be the top story in Friday's Florida papers?)

The most exciting moment in the first half hour? A shot of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist sitting in the audience. On TV, he was so tan he looked like an Oompa Loompa.

Read the rest here. 

BEAUFORT, S.C.--Shots from the Obama post-game show at the University of South Carolina-Beaufort:

Outside Looking In: Obama finishes a television interview

 

 

Photo Finish: Fans check the instant replay

 

Eye to Eye: Obama spots Stumper in the crowd
 

Safety First: The candidate flanked by supporters--and the ubiquitous security guards

 

... nearly removed and destroyed a backpack I left unattended for 15 seconds.

... barred me from returning to my car for ten full minutes because Obama was departing from the same lot.

... locked me out of both the media and public entrances to a high-school rally after I arrived five minutes late. 

... and shouted me down, pulled up beside me on motorcycle and turned me back when I walked down a driveway they'd blocked off to vehicles.

I wonder if the threats that earned Obama the earliest Secret Service detail in election history are worse here than elsewhere.

Or maybe it's just because Stumper looks so menacing.

 

And often you're right.

Like this afternoon, for example, when I arrived in here in Beaufort--the second oldest city in South Carolina and setting of the Baby Boomer classic "The Big Chill"--to cover Barack Obama's "Roundtable Discussion with Veterans." If you never witnessed a "roundtable discussion" on the campaign trail, I wish I were you. Next time you're invited, I recommend that you watch "Baby Geniuses" instead. It's that bad.

In case you're still curious, here's how these shindigs work. (Every candidate indulges.) The press is corralled into the back third of a handsome little room. The emphasis is on little--minus two-thirds. Then more press shuffles in. Then more. Soon, there are 45 reporters, cameramen and photographers sardined into a space the size of a Chevy Malibu. Every seat--there are about 15--is full, meaning people are perching their PCs on armoires, sitting Indian-style on the carpet and leaning one-legged on window frames like woozy flamingos. A phalanx of television cameras blocks the view; all you can see is the backside of a boom-mike operator.

When Obama enters, he strides to a podium emblazoned with a new, computer-generated slogan--"JUDGMENT TO LEAD." In case the reference is lost on you--tell me again who opposed the Iraq war from the start, and who voted for it?--the Illinois senator immediately unleashes a statement accusing "one of [his] opponents" of "trying to rewrite history." "We need accountability in our leaders," he says. "You can't undo a vote for war just because the war becomes unpopular." And that means you... Cillary Hlinton.

Next, staffers remove the podium and Obama joins the four military veterans who, until now, have sat silently behind him. The table is rectangular, not round; the chairs are arrayed along one side, facing the lenses and klieg lights. "What are you seeing?" Obama asks the first vet. "What's your situation?" A former gunnery sergeant, she bemoans the state of retirement benefits, the VA and screening practices for PTSD victims. "That's an important recommendation," Obama says in a slumberous baritone, his eyes hooded, his chin resting in his hand. He then turns to the next vet and asks the same question. The answer? VA, PTSD, brain trauma, benefits. "Important," says Obama. "My staffers are taking notes." Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat, and 45 minutes after it started--with the three missions of the day (conveying openness, responding to attacks on Obama's Iraq war consistency and appealing to the Palmetto State's massive military community) accomplished--the "roundtable discussion" is done.   

Provided that the cameras were rolling, the recorders were running and the reporters were writing down every word. Which, of course, we were. (Note that the "discussion" merited nary a mention in that account. Or this one.)

Now, I'm not knocking the veterans' concerns. These problems are critical, and ignoring them would betray the solemn compact we make with our military men and women. But Obama already knows what these folks are worrying about.  "Roundtable discussions" aren't a fact-finding missions, policy sessions or heart-to-hearts. If they were, Stumper wouldn't be invited. They're press conferences, plain and simple, and to pretend they're anything else--especially freewheelin' conversations--seems sort of condescending.

That said, I'm the one who flew from New York and drove an hour-and-a-half from Charleston for the honor, so I can't really raise a ruckus.

I'll leave that much, at least, to the apes.

 Contributed by Holly Bailey

The biggest news on the campaign trail today is not the smackdown between Bill Clinton and Barack Obama or the almost too close to call Florida GOP primary. This morning came word that John McCain has gotten the endorsement of Sylvester Stallone.

That’s right: Rambo digs the Straight Talk. “I like McCain a lot. A lot,” the actor told Fox News. “You know, things may change along the way, but there’s something about matching the character with the script. And right now, the script that’s being written and reality is pretty brutal and pretty hard edged like a rough action film, and you need somebody who’s been in that to do deal with it.” Dude!

Sly does have a point: That script, I mean the world, is a scary place. It’s hard to imagine a ‘roided up Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee parachuting into the jungle with a pocketful of grenades and a makeshift crossbow and ripping the hearts out of bad guys. Rudy Giuliani, maybe. Or Ron Paul, if he ditched the blimp, that is. (The Viet Cong—er, fundamentalist terrorists—would spot that thing a mile away and blow it straight out of the sky.) But we could definitely see McCain, a former POW, going Rambo on the enemy—rep tie cinched tight around his forehead, sleeves ripped off his Brooks Brothers oxford.

In some ways, the endorsement is fitting. McCain’s is a longtime boxing aficionado, and he’s been marching up on stage these days to the Rocky theme, “Gonna Fly Now,” which is, hands down, one of the best movie songs ever. When he heard Stallone was in his corner, McCain declared he was going to go run the steps of the Philadelphia Art Museum to celebrate. He also had a word of warning for Chuck Norris, the action hero who has endorsed Huckabee, and who has been trash talking McCain lately as too old to be president. “Look out Chuck Norris, Sylvester’s coming after you!” McCain said this morning, gritting his teeth and shaking his fist. “He’s coming after you, and he’s going to get you!”

Asked later if he’d ask Stallone to campaign for him, McCain replied in the affirmative. “I'd love to have him,” McCain told reporters on his bus. “I’m a huge fan.” Oh really? Asked by Newsweek if he’d enjoyed Stallone’s lesser-known works, like "Tango & Cash,” an unfortunate effort co-starring Kurt Russell, McCain laughed and said he’s always found Stallone’s films to be “intellectually stimulating.” Good answer, Senator. Straight talk isn’t always the best way to go. Just ask Clubber Lang.

Last night, Hillary Clinton came to Hackensack for her first major New Jersey rally of the cycle--and the fervor reached levels typically reserved for candidates named "Barack Obama." The queue snaked hundreds of yards from the front door of the Bergen Academies high school to the far reaches of the parking lot; dozens gave up on getting a seat and could be seen retreating to their cars even before the event began. Amped as the atmosphere was, though, I suspect that the hubbub arose less from her fame and senator-next-door status than something more fundamental: the novel allure of seeing a real, live presidential candidate--any presidential candidate--in a state that hasn't had a say in the nominating contest since... well, ever. (Or at least in my lifetime.) Losing to Obama by 12 in the Palmetto State, Clinton has essentially ceded the primary and instead spent yesterday hopscotching from Washington to Arizona to California to Jersey--a preview of what all the candidates will start to do once South Carolina votes on Saturday. Not to take anything away from Hillary, who leads in the Garden State by 18 points; she was the rock star last night. It's just that Obama will probably assume the role, too, in the twelve days between now and Super Tuesday.

This is as it should be--and will soon be, I think, in many of the 22 once-ignored, suddenly-important states set to vote on Feb. 5.  A funny thing happens each cycle in Iowa and New Hampshire: after 12 months of constant campaigning--Clinton first stopped in the Hawkeye State on Jan. 27, 2007--the candidates cease to be stars and start to seem like neighbors. It's like Manhattanites and celebrities; Iowans are so used to encountering possible presidents at the local greasy spoon that, when they do, they pause, listen and quickly return to fondling corn (or whatever it that Iowans do when they aren't readying themselves to caucus). Missed McCain today? No worries; he's stumping next Tuesday at the Rendezvous Banquet Hall. But with candidate appearances both unprecedented and, now, in the sprint to Super Tuesday, infrequent, the Big 22 won't be nearly as blase. In fact, many in attendance last night treated Clinton's arrival--and the chance to meet her in the flesh--as a once-in-a-lifetime event.

Take Barbara S. of Upper Saddle River, N.J. (She requested I match her name with a mere initial, saying she'd like to "keep [her] politics private." If only more people agreed.) A slim, nervy brunette in a cropped tan blazer, Barbara, who's deciding between Clinton and Obama, waited two-and-a-half hours in the sub-30-degree air to get in; when she finally reached the front of the sluggish Secret Service screening line around 6:25 p.m.--the senator, scheduled for 5:30, still hadn't arrived--an usher informed her that the gym was full and that she'd have to watch a live feed in the adjacent auditorium. Barbara made a bee-line for the nearest volunteer, an elderly lady hawking "Hillary" buttons. "Is she coming in this room, too?" she demanded, pointing to the auditorium. "I'm sure she'll try," said the button lady. "That's not good enough," Barbara snapped. "They put kids in the gym and kids can't even vote."

"Well, I thi--"

"I came at 4:00 and I now I won't get to see her in person!"

"Hold on, hold on. I do I think that she'll come over. I do."

Pause. "Well, as long you tell me she will, I'll stay."

"She will."

Just to be safe, Barbara reprised her interrogation with an advance man in the lobby and a staffer in the auditorium; the latter skittered off to find his superior, so I imagine he got the message. "There's a connection in person," Barbara told me. "I don't need to stand outside for two-and-a-half hours to see Hillary on a television screen. I can do that at home."

CONTINUED AFTER THE JUMP... 

By Holly Bailey

In the early states, it wasn't unusual to see the presidential candidates basically campaigning on top of one another. Mitt Romney once bumped into Barack Obama while canvassing for votes in New Hampshire, while Mike Huckabee's bus almost collided with Fred Thompson's bus last month in Pella, Iowa. Meanwhile, John Edwards literally missed Michelle Obama by minutes while campaigning at a library in tiny Monticello, Iowa, last November--prompting loads of joking outrage among rival staffers about advancing their event sites a little better.

With the campaign now moving into bigger states, like Florida, you'd imagine that these near misses would stop happening. Think again. Last night, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain slept under the same roof at a Hilton hotel in Deerfield Beach, Fla., not far from the site of tonight's GOP debate at Florida Atlantic University. Reporters traveling with McCain discovered the coincidence randomly: during check-in yesterday, a photographer noticed a stack of room keys labeled with the names of Giuliani's top staffers sitting at the Hilton's front desk.

Aides say they didn't run into each other-Giuliani arrived late last night, while McCain arrived early to appear at a nearby fundraiser and snuck out early for another money event Thursday morning. A run-in likely wouldn't be too awkward. Unlike the chilly relationship he has with Romney, McCain and Giuliani are friends, with the former mayor once even telling an Iowa audience last summer that if he weren't running for president himself he'd be stumping for McCain. (Way to talk yourself up, Rudy.) Still, Giuliani might plot a discreet exit out the backdoor before tonight's debate. McCain is scheduled to host a pre-debate rally at the Hilton tonight.

A (quick) round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

EDWARDS STRUGGLES FOR ATTENTION, EVEN IN NATIVE STATE (USA Today) 

THOMPSON: 'A LACKLUSTER CANDIDATE' (Newsweek) 

ROMNEY, MCCAIN TAKE LEAD IN FLORIDA; TAX TALK PERVADES (Washington Post)

ROMNEY LEADS IN ILL WILL AMONG GOP CANDIDATES (New York Times) 

ROMNEY'S WALLET KEEPS HIM IN THE RACE (Wall Street Journal) 

THE CHINKS IN GIULIANI'S 9/11 ARMOR (Los Angeles Times) 

GIULIANI FINDS SNOWBIRD FRIENDS IN FLORIDA, BUT IS HE WINNING OVER VOTERS? (New York Times) 

HUCKABEE ALIENATES GOP IN ARKANSAS (Washington Times) 

SOME IN PARTY BRISTLE AT CLINTON'S ATTACKS (Washington Post) 

OBAMA PULLS PUNCHES VS. CLINTONS (Politico)

 

It's been over a week since Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton declared détente in Sin City, but we're still obsessing over the role race will play in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Part of the reason, as always, is pure, unadulterated media hype. As my NEWSWEEK colleague Evan Thomas writes in his latest column,"the press loves conflict, and so naturally gravitates towards stories of racial division." That's putting it mildly.

And part is timing: Monday was Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, which meant that the candidates made headlines by appearing at King's church in Atlanta, marching in Columbia, S.C. and/or debating at a Congressional Black Caucus forum in Myrtle Beach. Not to mention the fact that 50 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in the Palmetto State is black, making Saturday's nominating contest, the next on the Democratic calendar, a referendum largely on which candidate that particular group will support. Backed more than four-to-one over Clinton by black South Carolinians, Obama currently leads by an average of 12 points.

But there's also some tricky strategy involved on all sides--and it's worth unpacking. After crunching some numbers, I'm wondering if the current CW--that the "Race Race" might come down to black and white--is relevant at all. In fact, I'm thinking it might come down to black and brown (or Latino) instead.

Right now, the chattering class is slobbering over an op-ed published yesterday in Washington, D.C.'s "The Hill," in which former Bill Clinton strategist (and current Clinton foe) Dick Morris writes that "if blacks deliver South Carolina to Obama, everybody will know that they are bloc-voting. That... will drive white voters to Hillary Clinton." Morris's argument is that Clinton can lose South Carolina, where expectations are low, with impunity--and then head into Super Tuesday (after Bill has unsuccessfully wooed black voters) with their "unrequited" "love" seeming "so unfair that it triggers a white backlash." It's an intriguing thesis, and if white Democrats were to respond the way Morris predicts, it would definitely spell doom for Obama on Feb 5.

But I don't think they will. Maybe I'm just naive, but the white folks who participate in Democratic primaries--informed, committed liberals, mostly--seem like the last people in America who'd react to an Obama victory among blacks with active, aggressive antipathy. Sure, there are racists everywhere. But on the whole, Morris's view of the Democratic base seems way too dark to match reality.

That's not to say, though, that evidence of overwhelming black support in the Palmetto State exit polls won't present Obama with a real racial challenge on Feb. 5. It will--just with Latino voters instead of whites.

If you thought the insults, accusations and attacks would stop after Monday night's feisty Democratic debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C.--well, you were wrong.

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton reiterated her debate-night swipes at Obama on a host of issues, including Ronald Reagan, Iraq and health care. The goal: to undermine Obama's greatest strength--the perception that he's not a typical politician--by painting him as a timid, flip-flopping panderer (i.e., a typical politician). In response, the Obama camp said Clinton and her husband are "willing to say anything, distort anything, and twist anything in order to win an election." I am rubber, you are glue...

Undeterred, Clinton is out today with a radio ad in South Carolina pounding Obama again for noting that the "Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10, 15 years,” and Obama goes negative for the first time--on bankruptcy, NAFTA and economic stimulus--in talking points circulated to surrogates.

With no end to the nastiness in sight, we here at Stumper headquarters planned to spend the morning playing referee--not just reporting the back-and-forth without comment, but providing context and clarifications that would show readers when the candidates were right and when they were wrong.

But our brilliant partners at FactCheck.org beat us to the punch.

Here, then, is Viveca Novak's valuable score sheet. It's a much-needed reality check in this increasingly bitter battle for the Democratic nomination.

Summary
In one of the liveliest debates of the 2008 presidential campaign, the three top Democrats slugged it out in Myrtle Beach, S.C. We note some low blows:

Clinton falsely accused Obama of saying he "really liked the ideas of the Republicans" including private Social Security accounts and deficit spending. Not true. The entire 49-minute interview to which she refers contains no endorsement of private Social Security accounts or deficit spending, and Obama specifically scorned GOP calls for tax cuts.

Obama falsely denied endorsing single-payer government health insurance when he first ran for the Senate, saying, "I never said that we should try to go ahead and get single-payer." But in fact he gave a speech in 2003 saying, "I happen to be a proponent of a single-payer health care program."

Edwards misleadingly claimed, "I was the one who beat John McCain" in a recent CNN poll. The problem is that there is a more recent CNN poll, one that shows either Clinton or Obama beating McCain and doesn't include Edwards.

Analysis
Just three Democratic candidates took part in the scorching debate cosponsored by CNN and the Congressional Black Caucus in Myrtle Beach, S.C.: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. It was the next-to-last such encounter scheduled for the Democrats prior to the Feb. 5 "Super Duper Tuesday" showdown when more than 20 states hold nominating contests. South Carolina Democrats go to the polls Saturday.

I Love the '80s!

Clinton attacked Obama for supposedly supporting Republican ideas, which she said included federal deficits and "privatizing" Social Security:

    Clinton: [He] has said in the last week that he really liked the ideas of the Republicans over the last 10 to 15 years, and we can give you the exact quote. ... They were ideas like privatizing Social Security, like moving back from a balanced budget and a surplus to deficit and debt.

Obama pushed back, saying he had never endorsed such notions:

Clinton: [You] talked about the Republicans having ideas over the last 10 to 15 years.

Obama: I didn't say they were good ones.

Clinton: Well, you can read the context of it.

Obama: Well, I didn't say they were good ones. ...

Clinton: It certainly came across in the way that it was presented...

We can't speak to how things "came across" to Clinton, but we've listened to the entire interview and to our ears, it's just flatly false that Obama said he "really liked the ideas of the Republicans." Clinton is referring to what Obama told the editorial board of the Reno Gazette-Journal. A video is available on the Internet.

Here's what Obama actually said in the portion to which Clinton referred:

    Obama (Jan. 14, 2008): The Republican approach has played itself out. I think it's fair to say that the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last 10, 15 years, in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom. Now, you've heard it all before. You look at the economic policies when they're being debated among the presidential candidates, it's all tax cuts. Well, we know, we've done that; we've tried it. That's not really going to solve our energy problems, for example.

There's a difference between praising someone for having ideas and praising the idea itself. Obama is doing the former – and just as clearly not doing the latter. He says the GOP approach has "played itself out," for example.

It's also false to imply – as Clinton did – that Obama endorsed Republican proposals to set up private Social Security accounts or that he praised deficit spending. We listened to the entire 49-minute interview, and Obama said no such thing.

Read the rest here.

Hi everyone. A lot of Fredheads were offended by an item I wrote yesterday about his exit from the race, and I can understand why--it was a quick-hit humor piece about a candidate they admire. So I've posted an email analysis from Tim Schranck, very smart Thompson supporter, just to show how his fans viewed him--and the difficulties his bid encountered. I think Tim's largely correct, and greatly appreciate his perspective. Hope you enjoy. Best, Stumper

By Tim Schranck 

First of all, I think most objective observers would say that few if any candidates in either party put as much thought and substance into putting forth specific policy proposals as Fred did, and whether they fit your political bias or not, they were policies that were roundly hailed by leading conservative publications such as National Review and the WSJ.  Rather, the biggest beef against Fred seemed to be that he didn’t act like other politicians who only know they want to be president, not what they want to accomplish as president.
 
The failure of his candidacy is as much an indictment of our political system and the media as it is about him.  How many columns of newspaper space and minutes on Fox – FOX!!! – were dedicated to what shoes he wore to the Iowa state fair and the fact that he rode around in a golf cart?  At lot more space than his specific policies.  Tell me, how much more important were the brand of his loafers than this immigration policy?  The media built him up, practically begged him to get in, and then jumped down his throat from the start.  The media and the system conspire in Iowa to give us a lunatic fringe candidate like Huckabee—a guy who literally believes in Creation instead of scientific facts like, take for one example, carbon dating.  Why on God’s green earth do we give them this much say?  Because the media loves the story, and the parties fall in line.
 
Fred did not behave the way politicians have behaved for the last few decades, and in my mind that was one of his biggest pluses.  He went directly to the voters on blogs and the media can’t stand that because it threatens them.  Could he have campaigned harder?  Sure.  But I, for one, want a candidate who takes time every day to think, read and write about the important issues of the day.  I’d rather have a candidate with policies and positions than one who panders left and right.
 
In the era of Lincoln-Douglas debates, he would have been a natural.  In this end-of-an empire era when we want our presidential candidates to perform on stage like trained seals, showing hands here and taking questions from cartoon characters on You Tube Debates, he refused to play that game.  And now, because of a whopping 5 or so of our fifty states have ”spoken”, hundreds of millions of other Americans will never get a chance to voice their opinion.  To paraphrase a movie he did not star in, after careful consideration, I’ve come to the conclusion that our electoral system sucks.  Not because of federalism, because of the dominance of the two parties and their patsies in the media, on both the right and the left.
 
I’ve worked on more than one Presidential campaign in my life.  I had no problem accepting Bush when Dole lost, no problem with any GOP nominee thereafter, but this year, I am left with a sick feeling in my stomach that makes me want to pack up and leave this place for someplace else.
 
If bread and circus is all we want, then that’s all we’ll get.
 
God help us, because we surely can’t seem to help ourselves.

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

CANDIDATE TURN ATTENTION TO GYRATING MARKETS
(Adam Nagourney, New York Times)
The weakened economy and the turmoil in financial markets have helped to cement a gradual shift in emphasis in the presidential campaign to domestic issues from national security, giving the candidates an opportunity on Tuesday to spotlight economic proposals and try to convince voters that they could handle a crisis. Even before the stock market opened the candidates were rolling out, or reintroducing, stimulus plans, speeches, television advertisements and statements that suggested how they would handle a situation like this. There were differences in what they were proposing — the Republicans pressed more for tax cuts for individuals and business; the Democrats called for increasing government spending — but the urgency of the response reflected a common calculation that the race for president had changed in a potentially fundamental way.

CLINTON NOW LOOKING BEYOND S.C.
(Anne E. Kornblut and Shailagh Murray, Washington Post) 
The next Democratic presidential nominating contest will take place in South Carolina on Saturday, but Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has already turned her full attention to places such as this: delegate-rich pockets of states that will vote in a tidal wave of primaries two weeks from now. Clinton has been focused on California, New York, New Jersey and Arkansas since her defeat in the Iowa caucuses earlier this month, betting that she can sweep states where her name recognition and popularity are strong. The logic seems simple: She represents New York in the Senate, and New Jersey is next door; she was the first lady of Arkansas for a decade; and California will be the biggest prize when 22 states vote on Feb. 5. But in a system that awards delegates by congressional district, with some worth more than others, the calculation is far from straightforward, and Clinton backers fear that the setup could boost Sen. Barack Obama if he fares well in populous corners of key states.

HOW CLINTON WILL WIN THE NOMINATION BY LOSING S.C.
(Dick Morris, The Hill) 
If Hillary loses South Carolina and the defeat serves to demonstrate Obama's ability to attract a bloc vote among black Democrats, the message will go out loud and clear to white voters that this is a racial fight. It's one thing for polls to show, as they now do, that Obama beats Hillary among African-Americans by better than 4-to-1 and Hillary carries whites by almost 2-to-1. But most people don't read the fine print on the polls. But if blacks deliver South Carolina to Obama, everybody will know that they are bloc-voting. That will trigger a massive white backlash against Obama and will drive white voters to Hillary Clinton.

IN SOUTH, DEMOCRATS' TACTICS MAY CHANGE POLITICAL GAME
(Christopher Cooper, Valerie Bauerlein and Corey Dade, Wall Street Journal)
The contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in South Carolina this Saturday is the next big test in the tight battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. In the long term, the showdown could also upend the way politics are practiced across the South.

HUCKABEE, SHORT ON CASH, CURTAIL EFFORT IN FLORIDA
(David D. Kirkpatrick, New York Times)
As the Republican front-runners crisscross Florida — the race’s biggest prize yet and a state his campaign once considered essential — Mr. Huckabee is pulling back in the state. He told reporters that he did not plan to advertise in Florida, and his only campaign stops scheduled so far this week were token events at airports. To conserve cash, Ed Rollins, his top consultant, and a few other staff members have agreed to work without pay, and his campaign has stopped arranging transportation for the traveling press. 

SUNSHINE STATE PRIMARY TO TEST MCCAIN'S APPEAL TO CORE CONSERVATIVES
(Sasha Issenberg, Boston Globe)
Next Tuesday's Republican primary will be the first of the season open to only the party's registered voters, who have preferred a candidate other than McCain in each of the three states he has fully contested... Florida will be not only the largest state yet to vote - with a demographic diversity foreshadowing the range of states voting on Feb. 5 - but also the biggest test of McCain's appeal to a Republican Party he has never fully won over. McCain's victories this year have been the result of unusual coalition building, relying on voters drawn to his personal attributes. In South Carolina, McCain performed solidly among evangelical Christians, while overwhelmingly winning both Catholic and proabortion rights voters. Yet among the party's core conservatives, McCain has yet to show strength. In all states, the bulk of McCain's support comes from self-described liberals and moderates.

GOP CAN REVIVE CURBED ENTHUSIASM
(Gerald Seib, Wall Street Journal)
In the wake of Saturday's South Carolina primary -- a high-profile contest in a presidential campaign that seems to have captured the nation's fancy overall -- a clear pattern now has emerged: Republican voters simply aren't turning out in the numbers you would expect. ... While Sen. McCain -- who now appears to be the leading Republican contender -- still engenders doubts among social and economic conservatives, those doubts are offset by the fact that he has the ability to excite and pull into the party independents and wavering Republicans. Put another way, the real need for Republicans this year may be less to excite the traditional base than to expand it in the post-Bush era, and Sen. McCain might be capable of doing just that.

NO LONGER UP FOR THE ROLE OF PRESIDENT
(Michael D. Shear, Washington Post)
It was the image of Thompson as commander in chief -- a part he played in a movie -- that seemed so promising when he contemplated running for the White House last spring and summer. Instead, the campaign became roiled in staff disputes that centered on Thompson's wife, Jeri, and was dogged by assertions that Thompson did not have the desire or energy to mount an aggressive presidential campaign. That view was affirmed soon after Thompson entered the race in early September. He ignored some of the states with the earliest contests and campaigned sporadically in others.

UPDATE, 1.23.08: Hi everyone. A lot of Fredheads were offended by this item, and I can understand why--it's a quick-hit humor piece about a candidate you admire. So I've posted an email analysis from a very smart Thompson supporter here, just to show how his fans viewed him and the difficulties his bid encountered. Hope you enjoy. Best, Andrew

Who could have seen it coming?

Other than, like, everyone.  

At 2:24 p.m. this afternoon, a message from "Friends of Fred Thompson" arrived in the inboxes of political reporters and operatives across the country. "Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States," wrote Thompson, who finished a disappointing third Saturday in his must-win state of South Carolina. "I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."

And with that, reporters and operatives all across the country--including, I'm guessing, those on Thompson's payroll, who must have been sick of repeating that the boss's one-stop-a-day schedule represented "a lazy new kind of campaign"--breathed a sigh of relief. Finally, they thought. We can stop pretending this guy wants to be president.

Thompson's bid was so painfully and publicly half-assed that his withdrawal is almost like an act of leadership. Yes, he was a charming, coherent conservative who showed well in debates and had gotten somewhat fired up in his final days. But from the start, no one ever really believed his heart was in winning the White House.

I like to think of him as the Peter Gibbons of presidential candidates. Gibbons, in case you're not a 21-to-34-year old Clinton-era cult comedy aficionado, was the protagonist of the 1999 Mike Judge workplace romp "Office Space" starring Ron Livingston as Gibbons and Jennifer Aniston as his obligatory love interest. Like Thompson, who said in 1998 that he didn't enjoy "spending 14- and 16-hour days voting on 'sense of the Senate' resolutions on irrelevant matters," Gibbons is a likable, laconic dude who somehow got stuck with monotonous gig that he obviously loathes. "Ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it," he says. "So that means that every single day that you see me, that's on the worst day of my life." But everything changes when Gibbons suddenly stops worrying about pushing paper--and stops showing up at the office--inspiring friends and colleagues to shake off the shackles of their own workaday lives and rebel against the powers that be.

Sure, it's unlikely that a liberated Thompson will go on to deploy a computer virus to swindle money from a regional tech company. But that's no reason his story shouldn't shine like a beacon of hope for disgruntled, disinterested staple monkeys everywhere.  

Also, there's now a chance that the fourth next installment of the "Iron Eagle" series will finally get greenlighted.

It's always nice to get an email from Hillary Clinton, because even though she's sort of standoffish on the trail, she really, you know, opens up when she's rocking the Microsoft Outlook.

Take this morning, for example.

At 11:50 a.m., I received a message from "Hillary Clinton" titled "The next debate." Hillary, it seems, was just dying to ask me something. "One of my favorite moments in any debate -- like the one we had last night -- is when I look out into the audience and make eye contact with someone I know," "she" writes. "Next Thursday, I want you to be that person. Would you come to an upcoming debate and be there for me in the audience?"

Oh, Hillary! Even though I wasn't aware until now that I am someone the New York Senator knows--did we meet at the Arcade Fire show on Randall's Island?--I must admit that I was moved by her confession that it's the personal, not political, moments that matter most in presidential debates and touched by her tender, girlish request that I "be there for [her]" at the next showdown. Later, Hillary even wrote that "having you there as my guest would mean so much to me" and promised that "after the debate, you and I can talk about the campaign and about what we're doing together to change our country."

And all I have to do in return is donate money?

Yes, yes, yes, I say. A million times yes.

I will even choose to ignore the fact that, two minutes earlier, at 11:48 a.m., I received a message called "About Last Night" from Clinton's press office accusing Barack Obama of being a corrupt, disingenuous, lily-livered, flip-flopping liar.

That's not the Hillary I know.

An MP3 download of the Baja Men's 2000 novelty hit "Who Let the Dogs Out?": 99 cents.

Some 'bling bling': Between $1.00 and $1 million.

Seeing Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney utter both phrases at a Martin Luther King Birthday celebration in Jacksonville, Fla. yesterday: 

Priceless.

"Dogs" at the start; skip to 2:30 for the "bling." This is why YouTube exists.

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

MERCHANTS OF TRIVIA
(Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone) 
Stripped of its prognosticating element, most campaign journalism is essentially a clerical job, and not a particularly noble one at that. On the trail, we reporters aren't watching politics in action: The real stuff happens behind closed doors, where armies of faceless fund-raising pros are glad-handing equally faceless members of the political donor class, collecting hundreds of millions of dollars that will be paid off in very specific favors over the course of the next four years. That's the real high-stakes poker game in this business, and we don't get to sit at that table. Instead, we get to be herded day after day into one completely controlled environment after another, where we listen to an array of ideologically similar politicians deliver professionally crafted advertising messages that we, in turn, have the privilege of delivering to the public free of charge. We rarely get to ask the candidates real questions, and even when we do, they almost never answer. If you could train a chimpanzee to sit still through a Joe Biden speech, it could probably do the job.

CANDIDATES FACE BIG PRIMARIES WITH SMALLER WAR CHESTS
(Matthew Mosk, Washington Post) 
With their campaign treasuries running on empty and only weeks to attract support in the nearly two dozen states that will cast ballots on Feb. 5, candidates for president are scrambling to find creative and unorthodox ways to grab the attention of voters with the funds they have remaining. At least two of the 2008 presidential contenders, seeking bang for their buck, have privately discussed bypassing a barrage of targeted local ads in favor of buying a spot with potentially more impact to run during the Feb. 3 Super Bowl broadcast, at a cost of about $2.7 million. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) yesterday became the first to make a nationwide cable television advertising buy, and several candidates were devoting resources to new methods of targeting absentee voters.

IN CLOSE RACE, EVERY DELEGATE IS PRIZED
(Jackie Calmes, Wall Street Journal)
With no presidential front-runner in either party after two more state contests over the weekend, Democrats and Republicans are mobilizing for what few have confronted: fighting delegate by delegate instead of state by state, in a battle that could grind on to the late-summer conventions.

OBAMA, CLINTON TANGLE AT DEBATE
(Patrick Healy and Jeff Zeleny, New York Times)
If the debate was full of memorable moments — Mrs. Clinton accusing Mr. Obama of associating with a “slum landlord,” Mr. Obama saying he felt as if he were running against both Hillary and Bill Clinton, the two candidates talking over each other — the totality of the attacks also laid bare the ill will and competitive ferocity that has been simmering between them for weeks... Both candidates believe the Democratic nomination could be sealed in the next six weeks, and they used this debate, the second-to-last one of the primary season, to unload their best opposition research and sound bites against each other. In some cases, it was the first time the candidates had personally confronted each other on potentially embarrassing points.

THE CHOICE
(George Packer, The New Yorker)
The alternatives facing Democratic voters have been characterized variously as a choice between experience and change, between an insider and an outsider, and between two firsts—a woman and a black man. But perhaps the most important difference between these two politicians—whose policy views, after all, are almost indistinguishable—lies in their rival conceptions of the Presidency. Obama offers himself as a catalyst by which disenchanted Americans can overcome two decades of vicious partisanship, energize our democracy, and restore faith in government. Clinton presents politics as the art of the possible, with change coming incrementally through good governance, a skill that she has honed in her career as advocate, First Lady, and senator.

CLINTON PLAN: LET BILL LASH OUT
(Ben Smith, Politico)
After two weeks of reports on the former president's temper, the former first lady's supposed inability to keep him on script, and the ostensibly dire impact on his legacy, Hillary Rodham Clinton has won two straight primaries.  If there are Democratic voters who share the assessment that he's a "liability" to the campaign — a term floated by outlets from The New York Times to the London Telegraph — this reporter and many others seem not to have found many of them. And though Clinton's original, improvised attacks on Sen. Barack Obama discomfited some inside his wife's campaign, they also seemed to hit their mark.  The campaign has settled on a new strategy: Turn Bill loose.

BILL STUMPS FOR HILL IN S.C.: In S. Carolina, It's Obama Vs. Clinton. That's Bill Clinton. (Patrick Healy, New York Times)
BILL AND THE DEBATE: The Other Clinton Is an Absent Presence (Dan Balz, Washington Post)

NEWSWEEK's Richard Wolffe on tonight's heated Democratic debate:

Family therapists might want to study the two Democratic get-togethers over the last week. Both were nominally about race in America, and  both involved the same three candidates. One became known as the Kumbaya conversation, where the candidates embraced one another's records on civil rights and racial issues. The other was a bloodbath, where the same candidates slashed and sliced their way through each other's reputation, voting record and campaign quotes.

In Las Vegas last week, Clinton insisted that Democrats needed to hug each other more and start swinging at the real enemy. "We are so  different from the Republicans on all of these issues, in every way that affects the future of the people that we care so much about," she 
said. "So I think that it's appropriate on Dr King's birthday, his actual birthday, to recognize that all of us are here as the result of  what he did, all of the sacrifice, including giving his life, along with so many of the other icons that we honor."

"We're all family in the Democratic Party," Hillary Clinton said in the cozy Las Vegas get-together. In Myrtle Beach, S.C., the family they most resembled was the Sopranos.

In Monday's debate, Clinton still lambasted Republicans—but implied that some of her colleagues might admire them.  "The facts are that [Obama] has said in the last week that he really liked the ideas of the Republicans over the last 10 to 15 years," she said, referring to Obama's previous comments about the Reagan era. "Now, I personally think they had ideas, but they were bad ideas."

After the two of them squabbled for several minutes—including over who had the right to talk—Obama tried to quash the notion that he was not a real member of the family. "What I said was that Ronald Reagan was a transformative political figure because he was able to get Democrats to vote against their economic interests to form a majority to push through their agenda, an agenda that I objected to," he said. "Because while I was working on those streets watching those folks see their jobs shift overseas, you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board at Wal-Mart."

Family disputes are never pretty, but any good psychologist would recognize the three classic defense mechanisms on display: denial, repression and suppression.

At last week's debate, and for most of the last year, the top three Democrats suppressed their natural competitive feelings for the greater family good. Perhaps at times they even repressed the resentment that simmered among them—the nasty feeling that the others were standing in the way of their rightful position as the presidential nominee. Of course, they may have simply been in denial, refusing to admit their obvious afflictions as ambitious politicians.

It was compelling to watch all those psychological problems burst into the open on Monday night, just days before the South Carolina primary.

Read the rest here. 
 

Barack Obama just released the first national ad of the Democratic primary--and it's designed to combat one of his central weaknesses. 

Out of the campaign trail, I always ask undecided voters what they think of the candidates. And when Obama comes up, they always say the same thing:

I need to hear more specifics. 

The problem isn't that Obama hasn't given specifics. He has. In fact, the 2008 Democratic race is by far the heaviest on policy of any nominating contest in recent memory. It's just that voters who aren't paying close attention--and that's most of us--can't "hear" the specifics over all his talk about airier concepts like hope, unity and change. We allot a tiny corner of our brains to each presidential candidate, and Obama has filled that space with rhetoric.

Clinton, on the other hand, has smartly contrasted herself with Obama by positioning "specifics" at the center of her speechifying; voters always assume that Clinton is more "specific" than Obama, even though they're pretty evenly matched. Each morning, for example, a Clinton staffer sends out an email alerting reporters to favorable stories. "Hillary explains 'in fine detail' how she would fix the economy and grow the middle class in an extensive interview with the New York Times," she wrote this morning. The quotation marks are telling.

I've wondered for awhile how the Obama camp would combat the "policy lightweight" perception. Pointing people to their website won't work; only the most avid would visit, and he needs to convince the least engaged voters, not the most.  He's already delivered his policy speeches. And he can't reclaim the rhetorical ground--I'm the specifics candidate-- that he's already ceded to Clinton.

Today's new spot provides an answer--and the result is mixed.

Airing now on CNN and MSNBC, "Inspiring" is a Frankenad assembled from recycled elements of previous spots (see here and here) with a new testimonial from Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, a recent endorsee, tacked on at the end. In an attempt to rebut the "all talk, no action" naysayers, the ad highlights the Illinois senator's key policy accomplishments. Obama "[cut] taxes for workers and [won] health care for children [in Illinois]," says the announcer, as words "cut taxes" and "expanded health care" appear onscreen. "In the U.S. Senate, he’s led on issues from arms control to landmark ethics reform." McCaskill adds that Obama "knows how to get things done," while Prairie State Republican Kirk Dillard says his former State Senate colleague "worked on some of the deepest issues." Here, the ad seems to say, is the beef.

Still, I'm not sure it's enough to fix Obama's problem. Instead of focusing squarely on policy, the ad attempts to slot "specifics" into Obama's overarching argument--that he can bring people together. He starts with a clip from his famous 2004 convention speech ("We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes") and ends with another ("There is not a liberal America and a conservative America — there is the United States of America"). The soaring rhetoric, in other words, is still front and center. I understand why; Obama's raison d'etre is the idea that unity produces results, and this will (and should) continue to be his message as the race goes national between now and Super Tuesday. But I can easily imagine undecideds seeing it and thinking, "same old shtick."

The question is, will the voters of, say, California hear the whisper of "action" over the roar of Obama's "talk"? As they start to tune in, he's betting that they'll make space for his specifics amid the clutter of "change," "hope" and "unity."

On Friday, Stumper wrote that Mike Huckabee superfan--or is it "Huckafan"?--Chuck Norris could be hurting his candidate of choice by appearing at nearly campaign stop, and that he may want to consider returning to his day job hawking Total Gym exercise equipment.

We take it back.

Not because the star of Sidekicks has suddenly become, like, relevant. Au contraire. Rather, after reading what Norris said yesterday during a fundraising barbecue on his Texas ranch, I've decided that Walker, Texas Ranger is just too ridiculous not to keep around.

Coupling his legendary command of advanced mathematics with his vast knowledge of human physiology, Norris told reporters that serving as president accelerates the aging process "three-to-one"--meaning that, according to his calculations, John McCain, now 71, will be dead by 2012.

"If John takes over the presidency at 72 and he ages three-to-one, how old will he be in four years? Eighty-four years old," Norris said, as Huckabee looked on. "That's why I didn't pick John to support, because I'm just afraid the vice president will wind up taking over his job within that four-year presidency."

A brilliant argument, Mr. Norris. Coincidentally, Huckabee, at 52, is the youngest candidate in the Republican field--and therefore the least likely to expire as a result of the office's "trebled" aging effect. I can see why you support him.

I do, however, have one quibble with your arithmetic. Assuming that your theorem is valid--and why wouldn't it be, really?--both Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush would now be 91 in "Chuck Norris years." That's older than 84--the age at which you predicted the mature Arizonan will croak. And reliable sources tell Stumper that Bush and Carter are still alive.

Not to mention the fact that Ronald Reagan was 93 (à la Norris) when he left office, and lived to be 109.

On the other hand, though, James K. Polk shuffled off this mortal coil at the tender Norris age of 63.

So you never can tell.

UPDATE, 11:15 a.m.: McCain kicks back, telling NBC's First Read, "I'm afraid that I might have to send my 95-year-old mother over and wash Chuck's mouth out with soap." Details of the pending cage match to come.

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

THE NEWSWEEK ROSTER

IN THE SHADOW OF BUSH (Evan Thomas)
The president has left his party in a precarious state. But the GOP candidates running in the wake of his wreckage can learn much from his failures.

FISHING FOR A WAY TO CHANGE THE WORLD (Jacob Weisberg) 
Bush thought his father lacked a grand doctrine. His greatest failures have come from trying to craft one.

HOW MY PARTY LOST ITS WAY (Michael Gerson)
What caused the unraveling of the Republican Party? The president's former speechwriter explains.

HOMEWARD BOUND (Howard Fineman)
Which candidate has the right cards to ease Las Vegas's economic jitters?

CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR
Getting elected may be the easy part. A sluggish economy. An ailing health-care system. An immigration mess. The next president's got issues. 

 
THE BEST OF THE REST

A SPLIT DECISION ON SUPER TUESDAY?
(Michael Duffy and Rani Molla, Time)
On February 5, primaries and caucuses in 21 states will award more than 1,000 delegates to the Republican National Convention — almost half of the amount needed to secure the nomination. But a four man field, in which each candidate has roughly the same momentum and factional strength (if not the same war chest), raises the distinct possibility that several candidates will split those delegates, postponing further the emergence of a frontrunner. And that means the GOP race could go on much longer than anyone imagined. It might even result in no candidate getting a majority of delegates when the primaries are over, a prospect that Republicans are starting to take very seriously.

REPUBLICAN FIELD RIDES FULL FORCE INTO FLORIDA TEST
(Adam Nagourney, New York Times)
In a rare moment of political consensus, all of the campaigns see the Jan. 29 primary in Florida, the fourth most populous state in the nation, as the most important contest on the calendar to date.. ... Mr. Romney's advisers said they were fearful that a continuing decline in Mr. Giuliani's standing would send his previous supporters to Mr. McCain. These advisers argued that Mr. McCain would struggle to win Florida because he could not draw on votes from independents, who supported him in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and where his success was due in no small part to support from independent voters. All of the candidates were considering whether Mr. McCain's victory in South Carolina would make up for the relative weaker organization he has here compared with Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Romney. … Mr. McCain's advisers said Sunday that their top goal was to marginalize Mr. Giuliani and try to transform this into a two-way race with Mr. Romney.

MORE: GOP Field Readies for True Test in Florida (Dan Balz, Washington Post)

FLORIDA: WHAT DO THEY NEED TO DO TO WIN?
(Marc Caputo, Miami Herald) 
Florida's Republican vote is like the nation's: split. And with so many divided loyalties and frontrunners, this is a race for less than 40 percent of the vote. All the candidates must now chase Florida's key demographic: voters older than 55, who account for about three-quarters of the Republican primary vote. They'll have to hold their own in the crucial Tampa-Orlando I-4 corridor (home to about half the votes). All of them -- especially Rudy Giuliani ---- will have to keep a foot in South Florida (about 25 percent of the vote). Each Florida front-runner has the following keys, strategies and challenges campaigning in the fourth-most populous state in the nation.

FLORIDA DO-OR-DIE FOR GIULIANI
(Joseph Curl, Washington Times)
Rudolph W. Giuliani, once the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has finished last in five of the first six presidential-nomination contests and tumbled from the top of the national polls, a spot he held unchallenged for months. His response so far? Sit on the bench, collecting splinters. After skipping the first half-dozen primaries and caucuses, it's finally Game Day for the former New York City mayor, and he calls the next battleground — Florida — "our home field."... Turning somber, he added: "A loss, and a bad loss, could be crippling."

THIS TIME, MCCAIN DEFUSED CONSERVATIVE ATTACKS
(Julie Eilperin and Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post)
From Rush Limbaugh to Tom DeLay, voices that once held sway over the Republican rank and file unloaded on John McCain over the last week, trying to use a conservative electorate in South Carolina to derail the Arizona senator's quest for the Republican nomination. But though McCain failed to persuade many of the old Republican power brokers, he wrapped up the Republican establishment where it counted most, South Carolina. His win Saturday underscored how different McCain's campaign has been this year compared with eight years ago, when a similar conservative assault effectively ended his campaign here and handed his party's presidential nomination to George W. Bush.

MITT ROMNEY'S ECONOMIC RECORD QUESTIONED
(Jason Szep, Reuters) 
Republican Mitt Romney is touting his revival of the Massachusetts' economy in a pitch to voters in Florida, a state that could make or break his White House bid, but some experts dispute that record... Northeastern University economist Andrew Sum, who has researched Romney's record, said the state lagged the U.S. average during that period in job creation, economic growth and wage increases. "As a strict labor market economist looking at the record, Massachusetts did very poorly during the Romney years, he said. "On every measure you've got, the state was a substantial under-performer."

DEMOCRATS TURN ATTENTION TO SOUTH CAROLINA CONTEST
(Amy Chozick, Wall Street Journal)
With the dogfight in Nevada behind them, Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama prepared to battle it out in South Carolina while spreading their efforts to the nearly two dozen states that will hold primaries on Feb. 5.

By Holly Bailey 

Maybe John McCain is onto something with these superstitions of his. Just as he did in New Hampshire, McCain toted his lucky penny, his lucky nickel, his lucky compass and other good luck charms around South Carolina yesterday. His wife, Cindy, wore her lucky color, purple.

And his staff is now just as superstitious. Mark McKinnon, McCain’s media advisor, showed up at the senator’s victory rally at the Citadel in Charleston wearing a black felt hat that he wore two weeks ago when McCain won New Hampshire. “I can’t take it off now,” McKinnon told Newsweek. Ditto for Mark Salter, McCain’s longtime aide, who has been honoring his own ritual—willing or not. “I’ve been wearing the same clothes for the last 12 days!” Salter joked.

It's unclear if McCain will shed his once-honored tradition of seeing a movie on Election Day. He was aiming yesterday for a 4:00 p.m. showing of "There Will Be Blood," the new Paul Thomas Anderson flick, but he and aides ran out of time. The same thing happened in New Hampshire, when scheduling kept him out of the theater, too.

Could it be a sign?

NEWSWEEK's Arian Campo-Flores on Clinton:

The scene on Saturday morning in the employees' cafeteria at Las Vegas's Mandalay Bay Hotel & Casino provided a glimpse of where the day was headed. When Sen. Hillary Clinton arrived to greet workers and urge them to caucus for her, they mobbed her like paparazzi. Cheering and applauding, their eyes wide with enthusiasm, they jostled for position to catch a glimpse of her and perhaps shake her hand. "You guys need to stop pushing, okay? Calm down," said one hotel staffer to a mob of employees surging toward the candidate. Everywhere she turned, Clinton—who was sporting a bright red jacket and beaming at the fervent reception—was greeted by a sea of raised cell phones, snapping away. As one guy took a picture, he yelled out, "For the best woman in the world!" A buxom waitress in a tight red dress gushed, "I'm so proud that I'm meeting you."

Most of these people were members of the Culinary Workers Union—an organization that endorsed Sen. Barack Obama and boasted a muscular turnout operation. Yet judging from their response to Clinton, many decided to part ways with the union's leadership and exercise their own ideas about who to support. "I will vote for Hillary," said Martin Corona, a banquet server who was planning to caucus later that day. "She has a lot of experience. She's better than the new man. I don't know where he comes from." Cinthya Fernandez, a housekeeper, added enthusiastically, "We're going to make history this year." Among the half-dozen union members interviewed by Newsweek, all but one declared themselves Clinton supporters.

It was only a snapshot, but apparently a telling one.

(Read the rest here.) 

And NEWSWEEK'S Howard Fineman on McCain: 

Eight years ago, I witnessed a tale of two buses. In 2000, I traveled with Sen. John McCain on his "Straight Talk Express" bus as he pulled off a stirring, sur-prise victory in New Hampshire. A week later, I traveled on Gov. George W. Bush's bus through rural South Carolina as he told his inner circle: do what it takes to defeat McCain.

They did.

Now, eight years later, McCain has made himself the closest thing the Repub-licans have to a frontrunner by winning the South Carolina primary. He beat for-mer Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, which is all he had to do, to lay to rest the memory of 2000 and make himself the most plausible force for uniting a dispirited and divided party.

Watching the numbers rolls in here at NBC News, I recalled the way McCain had been destroyed by attacks in South Carolina. His campaign died there in the GOP primary eight years ago. Now, in what can only be regarded as poetic politi-cal justice, it is South Carolina that has given him a chance to claim the spot he was denied in 2000.

South Carolina was a must-win state for Huckabee more than it was for McCain. If he can't win South Carolina, it's hard to see where else Huck is set up to do so. He got a goodly share of evangelical voters, but not enough to win. Ac-cording to the NBC exit polls, Huckabee won only 41 percent of that vote. Former Sen. Fred Thompson did McCain a favor by siphoning some of that vote away from Huckabee.  McCain himself got an astonishing 26 percent of the evangelical vote in the state.

(Read the rest here.)

It happens to be true.

According to network projections, McCain just won South Carolina, 33-30, fending off a forceful challenge from former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. Eight years after the Palmetto State derailed his first presidential bid, McCain is now the odds-on favorite to win the Republican nomination.

Seven-figure ad buy starts tomorrow in Florida; he'll spend the next few days shuttling from the Sunshine State to fundraising events. 

For a sneak peek at what's next--at least in my humble opinion--here's what I wrote earlier about McCain "after South Carolina":

If McCain wins South Carolina tonight, he will probably win the Republican nomination.

There, I said it. 

Before you flood my inbox with hate mail, let's examine the evidence. After South Carolina, the Republican race moves to Florida on Jan. 29. Who's out front there? McCain, who leapt to the lead immediately after winning New Hampshire. He hasn't let go, even after losing Michigan to Mitt Romney. A month ago he polled at 10 percent; now he's up to 23. If the Palmetto State proves that New Hampshire wasn't a fluke, expect those numbers to climb higher--meaning that at that point it'll be up to Giuliani and Romney, both of whom need wins in the Sunshine State to stay viable, to knock the new frontrunner off his pedestal. If they fail, the Arizona senator will close out the first round of nominating contests with the wind at his back. I'm guessing that his (already sizable) 9.5 percent lead in the national polls will grow--and with only one week between Florida and Feb. 5, Republican voters spread across 21 states won't have a whole lot of time to change their minds (or have their minds changed by rival candidates). If McCain wins South Carolina, he'll probably clinch the nomination by the time the polls close on Super-Duper Tuesday.

Reckless, I know. This is not to say McCain won't face challenges--the field will narrow, foes will consolidate around another candidate and upcoming contests don't allow Independents, McCain's not-so-secret weapon, to participate.

But I'm in a maverick mood.

UPDATE, 8:00 p.m.: As he battled for third with Romney in South Carolina, Fred Thompson delivered remarks from the USC campus that seem to suggest an imminent departure from the race. “My friends, we will always be bound by a close bond because we have traveled a very special road together for very special purpose," he said. "This has never been about me, it's never been about you." At that, reporters here at McCain's victory party burst into laughter. "Who's it about?" said one reporter. "His wife," said another.

Official answer: "the country." Go figure.

Final Pre-Primary Polling Average: Fourth Place, 14.6 percent
Current National Polling Average: Fifth Place. 9.3 percent

Thompson has staked his entire bid on South Carolina, so the only thing that keeps him in contention is a win.

It would revive his moribund campaign and send him into Florida with unrivaled momentum. But it probably won't happen.

Thompson has only topped 20 percent in one recent poll--and it still showed him trailing Huckabee and McCain by five to 12 points. He typically lags by more. If Thompson wins--again, unlikely--he'll replace Huckabee, his rival for the right wing, as the fourth man in the Florida free-for-all on Jan. 29. If he finishes second--still a serious upset--he'll stick around for Florida, but unless he triumphs there, expect him to drop out soon after. And if he gets the bronze or worse tonight, Fredheads should prepare for an immediate withdrawal (and an endorsement of old friend John McCain).

"I’ve always said I have to do very well here," he said today during a brief chat with reporters at Lizard's Thicket restaurant in Columbia. "I stand by that." Asked what his plans were for Monday, Thompson repeated the question.

"Plans for Monday currently?" Thompson said. "Depends on the outcome. We'll see."

So while I'm at it, here's another reckless prediction: 

If Mike Huckabee finishes first tonight, he may become the only Republican since 1980 to win South Carolina and not end up as the nominee.

I contradict history at my own peril, but this much is clear: Huckabee would have a much harder time than McCain springboarding from South Carolina to a decisive win on Super-Duper Tuesday. For starters, he has yet to expand his base beyond evangelicals. In Iowa, he won 46 percent of the evangelical vote, and if he wins tonight, they'll be largely responsible. But while there are enough evangelicals in the Palmetto and Hawkeye States to propel a candidate to victory, the landscape is vastly different in Florida, California, Illinois, New York and many of the 22 other Feb. 5 states. (See Michigan, where he won only 16 percent of the vote.) In fact, Huckabee's early appeals to social conservatives--this week he provoked Fred Thompson's ire by calling the Constitution a "living, breathing document" while arguing for anti-abortion and anti-gay-marriage amendments--have convinced some moderate Republicans that he's a religious narrowcaster. After Florida, he'll only have one week to allay their suspicions.

And he'll have no money or organization to do it with. On the trail, Huckabee often argues that he's the David to his rivals' Goliaths. That's all well and good in Iowa and South Carolina--you can win in the early states with strong stumping skills and passionate supporters. But this year's "national primary" may turn on expensive, rapid-fire ad buys and get-out-the-vote efforts, making it very tough for Huckabee to keep up.

That's assuming he wins tonight. If he loses, Florida becomes the firewall. But he's currently in fourth place there, and it will only get harder to climb in the polls after losing to McCain, who's already in first. Especially with a rich, rejuvenated Romney and single-minded Giuliani standing between him and the frontrunner. The veep slot--he's a great fit for McCain or Giuliani--never looked so good.

I don't mean to be all doom and gloom. A big win tonight could separate Huckabee from the field and catapult him to a surprise victory in the Sunshine State. At that point, he may have so weakened his rivals that he'll be the last man standing on Feb. 6.

But the odds against that outcome are long. More likely, a Huckabee win in South Carolina makes Florida an evenly matched four-man race--and increases the chances that the Republican race continues to the convention.
 

If McCain wins South Carolina tonight, he will probably win the Republican nomination.

There, I said it. 

Before you flood my inbox with hate mail, let's examine the evidence. After South Carolina, the Republican race moves to Florida on Jan. 29. Who's out front there? McCain, who leapt to the lead immediately after winning New Hampshire. He hasn't let go, even after losing Michigan to Mitt Romney. A month ago he polled at 10 percent; now he's up to 23. If the Palmetto State proves that New Hampshire wasn't a fluke, expect those numbers to climb higher--meaning that at that point it'll be up to Giuliani and Romney, both of whom need wins in the Sunshine State to stay viable, to knock the new frontrunner off his pedestal. If they fail, the Arizona senator will close out the first round of nominating contests with the wind at his back. I'm guessing that his (already sizable) 9.5 percent lead in the national polls will grow--and with only one week between Florida and Feb. 5, Republican voters spread across 21 states won't have a whole lot of time to change their minds (or have their minds changed by rival candidates). If McCain wins South Carolina, he'll probably clinch the nomination by the time the polls close on Super-Duper Tuesday.

Of course, the Arizona senator could very well lose tonight--in which case all bets are off. His lead in South Carolina over Mike Huckabee is razor-thin--just one point--and some have speculated that Huckabee's zealous evangelical supporters are more likely than McCain's aging veterans to brave today's cold, wet weather. If McCain takes the silver, he's right back where he started--in the middle of a muddled Republican pack. Without a frontrunner, Romney, Giuliani and a newly-victorious Huckabee would all have an equal shot at Florida.

And even I'm not reckless enough to predict what would happen next.

UPDATE: CLINTON WINS--'UNFAIR' CAUCUSES AND ALL!

Final Pre-Caucus Polling Average: First Place, 37.8 percent (4.0 ahead of Obama)
Current National Polling Average: First Place, 41.3 percent (8.1 ahead of Obama)

If Obama has the most to gain tonight in Nevada, Clinton has the most to lose. With the Illinois senator already leading by ten in South Carolina, a slip in the Silver State would likely doom Hillary to a 1-3 record heading into Super-Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5--and, by diminishing Clinton's national lead, give Obama his best possible chance to overcome her early advantages in key states like California, Missouri and North Carolina.

Expect Clinton to campaign hard in South Carolina no matter what happens tonight. She's already planning go after Obama's core Palmetto State constituency--African-Americans--with an appearance Monday (i.e., Martin Luther King, Jr. Day) at Zion Baptist Church in Columbia followed by a march to the statehouse. (Oddly, Obama has scheduled no public appearances; he'll spend the day prepping for that night's Congressional Black Caucus Debate in Myrtle Beach.) And there's no sign that Bill and Hillary's relentless swipes--on Social Security taxes, abortion rights, Iraq and Obama's "rookie" status--will stop now.

But the most important weapon in Clinton's arsenal may be spin. Bill, Hillary and their surrogates have spent much of the week trying to discredit the Nevada caucuses, and if Obama wins, the shouting will only get louder in an attempt to invalidate the results. When the courts dismissed a lawsuit filed by the pro-Clinton state teachers' union arguing that special caucus sites near the Las Vegas Strip would favor Obama, the Clinton camp alleged that the courts had awarded their opponent a "clear 5-point advantage starting out." Meanwhile, Bill claimed last night to have witnessed members of the Culinary Workers' Union, which supports Obama, suppressing potential voters--even though Vegas papers have found no evidence of such activities. For good measure, he added that radio spots are airing in Northern Nevada that encourage Republicans and Independents to register Dem so they can "beat Hillary." Unfortunately, the ads in question don't mention Hillary at all.

Bottom line: The Silver State is anybody's race. (Except Edwards.) Whoever wins Nevada, wins Nevada. Clinton can compete on Feb. 5 regardless of tonight's outcome. But a victory would make her life a lot easier going forward, dashing Obama's hopes for back-to-back, pre-Super Tuesday wins. A loss would likely have the opposite effect.

UNADULTERATED CLINTON MEMO AFTER THE JUMP...
 

Final Pre-Caucus Polling Average: Second Place, 33.8 percent (4.0 behind Clinton)
Current National Polling Average: Second Place, 33.2 percent (8.1 behind Clinton)

Make no mistake: Obama has the most to gain from a Nevada victory. After a surprise loss to Clinton in New Hampshire, winning another close-fought contest would silence speculation that his first-place finish in Iowa was a fluke--the result, critics have said, of an irreplicable single-state organizing effort and once-in-a-lifetime turnout among mercurial young voters.

This week the Silver State hosted the weirdest, nastiest Democratic slugfest yet--with Obama on the receiving end of most of the punches. After the Illinois senator won the endorsement of the Nevada's all-important Culinary Workers Union--think casino employees--the local teachers' union, which has close ties to the Clintons, sued to shut down special caucus sites that the state Democratic party had set up near the Strip. The point, said the party, was to encourage greater turnout; the teachers (and, behind the scenes, the Clinton camp) argued that the sites would unfairly favor Obama because they're close to the casinos and award more delegates than locations in less-populated parts of the state. The lawsuit was dismissed Thursday, but tensions have lingered. A spate of harsh anti-Hillary radio spots by UNITE HERE, an independent Latino voter group that supports Obama, prompted sparring, with both Clinton and Edwards accused Obama of condoning "personal attacks" by not speaking out against the ads. Clinton slammed Obama on Yucca Mountain, suggesting that he's the pocket of donors from the energy company Exelon--even though he opposes dumping nuclear waste there. The Obama campaign claimed that large contributions from the financial-services industry shaped Clinton vote's for a 2001 bankruptcy--even though she now opposes the legislation. And everyone attacked Obama when he said (rightly) that Ronald Reagan "changed the trajectory of America"--even though he explicitly argued against Reagan's particular brand of change.

So there you have it. Silver State polling is pretty much meaningless, so we'll have to wait until this evening to if the skirmishes tarnished Obama's "above-the-fray" appeal.

The stakes couldn't be higher. Leading in South Carolina by 10 thanks to African-American support, Obama could win there regardless of the Nevada results. (South Carolinians won't take their cues from Silver State upstarts.) But the senator needs all the momentum he can get to compete on Super-Duper Tuesday with Clinton, who's still leading nationally by eight. Dual losses would, of course, cripple Obama's bid, while back-to-back wins would establish him as the clear frontrunner, giving him his best shot at toppling the former First Lady in states such as California, where she's currently ahead by 12. But a loss today, whether narrow or wide, would probably lead to a closer-than-expected finish in the Palmetto State--meaning that Feb. 5 voters would arrive at the polls with mixed messages. And without the time for retail politics between South Carolina and Super-Duper Tuesday, that gives an establishment candidate like Clinton an advantage over an insurgent like Obama.

AFTER THE JUMP: A MEMO FROM THE OBAMA CAMP SPINNING THE POTENTIAL RESULTS... 
 

UPDATE: SURPRISE! ROMNEY WINS. 

Early this cycle, the Republican contenders entered into an tacit agreement to ignore the Silver State caucuses in favor of the historically more significant South Carolina primary (both were scheduled for Jan. 19). All of them have honored that agreement, crisscrossing Dixie this week in search of votes--except for Romney.  After his win in Michigan on Tuesday failed to provide the bump he needed to stay competitive in the Palmetto State--he's still stuck in third place here--the former Massachusetts governor abruptly booked a one-way ticket for Nevada. That was Thursday. He hasn't come back.

It was a smart move. Aides blame Romney's loss in Iowa on religion--namely, the strong appeal of Mike Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, to the state's many evangelicals, who are deeply suspicious of Mormons. With South Carolina shaping up to be a repeat--despite a year spent building up a formidable ground operation and ad buys stretching back to September, longer than any other candidate--Romney decided mid-week to retreat to Nevada, where residents are much more comfortable with Mormons (they make up more than six percent of the population). A day later, a poll showed him overcoming McCain's post New Hampshire bounce to take a 15-point lead, and observers are now predicting a double-digit victory.

Leaving South Carolina has effectively lowered expectations for Romney there. A third- or fourth-place finish doesn't look as bad when you're not really competing--especially when you simultaneously win more delegates elsewhere (Nevada has 34 to South Carolina's 24). But the question remains: will a victory in an essentially uncontested race provide Romney with enough momentum to pass John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani in Florida? That's what Romney, who trails McCain by 13 percent in national polls, needs to do to compete on Super-Duper Tuesday.

It looks unlikely. If McCain wins today in South Carolina, he'll enter the Sunshine State as a clear frontrunner; if Huckabee wins, the race there will remain a four-way, 20-percent tie. The latter outcome is better for Romney than the former, but it's doubtful that Nevada will carry more weight than South Carolina--or Giuliani's monomaniacal Florida focus--with local voters. Expect Romney to spend heavily, perhaps from his $250 million personal fortune, to keep up.

Romney says he's focusing on delegates, not the media narrative--and rightfully so. "I'm not looking for gold stars on my forehead like I'm in first grade," he has said. "I'm looking to rack up the delegates I need to win the nomination." But while he may be winning that race right now, with 42 to Huckabee's 32 and McCain's 13, everything has to break his way between today and Feb. 5--or else the lead isn't likely to last for long.
 

Final Pre-Caucus Polling Average: Third Place, 18.0 percent (15.8 behind Obama, 19.8 behind Clinton)
Current National Polling Average: Third Place, 12.9 percent (20.2 behind Obama, 28.4 behind Clinton)

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, I wrote that "Edwards will finish third tonight, and [it] will effectively end his bid for president." I still agree with that assessment. Now, I didn't mean that Edwards would drop out of the race; he's free to keep campaigning as long as he wants (or as long as he can afford it). But losses in Iowa (his all-in, must-win contest) and New Hampshire have made it difficult for him to pick up the momentum necessary to win in later states. These battles don't occur in a vacuum, irrespective of earlier match-ups, and they're not decided solely on issue stances and local concerns. It's like dominoes. Early victories demonstrate a candidate's viability, which helps sway voters in subsequent states. Iowa and New Hampshire shouldn't have such power to shape perceptions; Edwards has won nearly as many delegates (18) as Clinton (24) and Obama (25). But that's just how our stupid system works.

Edwards may not win the nomination, but there's another role potentially awaiting him (as the Politico's Ben Smith points out): convention kingmaker. Of course, the former North Carolina senator could score a surprise victory this afternoon on the strength of support among working-class Nevadans; the completely unreliable Silver State polling shows him trailing the frontrunners by much as 39 and as little as 3 percent. If he does, he'd come storming into his birth state of South Carolina on Jan. 29 with some serious momentum, and we might have ourselves a three-man--er, person--race. But anything less simply won't provide Edwards the boost he needs to overcome his deficit in the Palmetto State, which currently stands at about 30 percent. And a loss there, on friendly Southern terrain, would make it more difficult than ever to topple the massive maze of dominoes up for grabs one short week later on Super-Duper Tuesday.

That said, as long as Edwards continues to draw 15 percent support, he's a player. “The nomination isn't going to be determined by the win-loss record in a few early states," Edwards aide Jonathan Prince told the Politico. "It's going to go to the candidate that can compete widely and accumulate delegates over the long haul." When the dust settles on Feb. 6, Edwards probably won't have as many delegates as Obama or Clinton (dominoes again). But if by the convention neither of them have enough to secure the nomination--a Democrat needs a simple majority of a total 4,049--whatever bundle Edwards does have will be key. Experts estimate that it could number 300 delegates--more than enough to break a tie and earn him a prominent place in an Obama or Clinton administration.

Attorney General John Edwards, battling greedy corporations and corrupt lobbyists on behalf of middle-class Americans? It could happen.

CHARLESTON, S.C.--Whew. Finally. The wait is over. It's been four whole days since Michigan, our last presidential primary. For the Dems, it's been eleven. As a wise man once said, looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

Kidding. 

Today the Democrats and Republicans of Nevada caucus and Republicans of South Carolina, um, primary. There's not much action on the trail, so I'll be posting a series of short items looking at "what's next" for each of the major contenders. The possibilities, as always, are fascinating. In 2004, only 9,000 Nevadans participated in the caucuses. Now, however, it's an official "early state"--meaning many, many more are expected to show up. Which is great and all, but it makes it impossible for pollsters to develop an accurate turnout model--and, consequently, deliver accurate poll numbers. Some surveys show Clinton ahead; some give Obama the advantage. In other words, it's a crap shoot.

On the GOP side, we've had three major contests with three different winners. But no Republican since Ronald Reagan has won the nomination without winning South Carolina. There may be no frontrunner now, but that could change tonight.

Stay tuned--and thanks so much for reading.

The schedule, via ABC’s Sneak Peak:

Nevada Republican caucuses:

Begin at 9:00 am PT (12:00 pm ET)
Straw vote begins at 9:15 - 9:45 am PT (12:15 - 12:45 pm ET)
Precincts are asked to conclude at 10:00 am PT (1:00 pm ET)
First results posted 10-10:30 am PT (1-1:30 pm ET)
Results likely known by Nevada Republican Party by 12:30 PT (3:30 ET)

Nevada Democratic caucuses:

Begin at 11:30 am PT (2:30 pm ET).
Preference groups form at 12:00 pm PT (3:00 pm ET)
Second alignment begins at 12:15 pm PT (3:15 pm ET)
Results start coming into Nevada Democratic Party at 2:00 pm PT (5:00 pm ET).

South Carolina GOP primary: polls open statewide from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm ET.

A. His 24-year pro-life record
B. His ad slamming Hillary Clinton for supporting a Woodstock Museum
C. His opposition to "the breakdown of the family"
D. His military cred

When I attended McCain's first post-Michigan stop in South Carolina--11:00 a.m. Wednesday at the Carolina First Center in Greenville--he mentioned all four. With third-party groups attacking his anti-abortion bona fides and evangelical darling Mike Huckabee posing a serious threat, McCain has spent much of the week protecting his right flank. Hence A through C. But tonight I attended his final stop before Saturday's all-important Palmetto State primary, and he mentioned only D --the military.

Mentioned might be too weak a word.  A closing argument--the candidate's final pitch before an election--has to be clear, concise and indelible. Tonight, McCain's stagecraft bordered on monomaniacal.

In other words, political theater at its finest.

The setting: The USS Yorktown, a World War II aircraft carrier docked at--no joke--Patriot's Point. It's now home to the Medal of Honor Museum. Coincidentally, McCain was awarded a Silver Star, a Legion of Merit for Valor, a Distinguished Flying Cross, three Bronze Stars, two Commendation medals plus two Purple Hearts and a dozen service medals for his actions in Vietnam--but no Medal of Honor. You generally have to die before you get one of those. The only hitch: John Kerry announced his 2004 presidential bid aboard the same ship. You can't win 'em all.

 

The timing: 6:00 p.m., which just so happens to coincide with the local news. Fittingly, the press riser was packed with Charleston correspondents. And McCain was punctual--for the first time, like, ever.

 

  

 

 

 

In the end, it was almost enough to make me feel macho.

 

Almost.

By Suzanne Smalley

Reporters on the Romney bus are starved for drama. Mike Huckabee invites the press to watch his haircuts. John McCain fires at will from the back of the Straight Talk Express, with no aides in sight. But Romney's campaign is a machine, logging the maximum numbers of miles and pausing only so that the candidate can pop out and deliver the same speech, over and over and over again. Journalists' only access to the former Massachusetts governor is usually restricted to a single daily press availability, which is conducted with a handler ever-present at his side.

So it's not hard to see why a hastily assembled appearance at a Columbia, S.C., Staples store has attracted so much interest among the Romney press corps.

Romney was in the midst of his usual spiel about his plans to shake up Washington, drawing a contrast between himself and longtime Arizona Sen. John McCain. "It's time for Washington Republicans and Democrats to have a leader that will fight to make sure we resolve the issues rather than continuously look for partisan opportunities for score settling and for opportunities to link closer to lobbyists," Romney began. "I don't have lobbyists running my campaign. I don't have lobbyists that are tied to my …"

Suddenly, Romney was interrupted by Glen Johnson, an indignant Associated Press reporter, who said, "That is not true, governor, that is not true. Ron Kaufman is a lobbyist." A noticeably flustered Romney shot back, "Did you hear what I said? Did you hear what I said? ... I said I don't have lobbyists running my campaign. He's not running my campaign." What followed was a tense back-and-forth during which Romney almost insultingly downplayed the relevance of Kaufman, a longtime friend and former political director for Bush 41's White House who happens to be a lobbyist and a Romney senior adviser. Kaufman is nothing more than an unpaid adviser, one of many, Romney said. The campaign is run by Beth Myers, he added.

For reporters who have spent the past several weeks being spun by Kaufman—a near-constant presence on the Romney plane—and watched him huddle with top staff and family before major speeches, it was a hard pill to swallow. The AP reporter dug in, asking whether Romney meant to suggest Kaufman is nothing more than "just a potted plant on your plane."

Read the rest here.