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Posted Tuesday, February 12, 2008 12:11 PM

The 'Doomsday Scenario': How One Superdelegate Will Decide

Andrew Romano

Don Norcross is moving up. First he was an electrician with the IBW--although, as he puts it, he'd "been with organized labor in one fashion or another since birth." Then about a dozen years ago the 46-year old resident of Voorhees, N.J. became president of the local AFL-CIO. Next up: politics. In 2000, Norcross followed his brother George--"profane, boastful and sure of his power," writes the Star-Ledger, he's "one of the state's most formidable political bosses"--into the Democratic fray, rising to the position of party chairman in Camden County. But his latest position is undoubtedly his most powerful. Come August, Norcross--along with approximately 796 congressmen, senators, governors, party members and power players--could very well pick the next Democratic nominee for president of the United States.

Don Norcross is, in other words, a superdelegate.

You've probably heard of them at this point. Created in 1980 by the party establishment to wrestle control back from the rabble--who'd just chosen George McGovern and Jimmy Carter--superdelegates represent 19 percent of the Democratic party's total delegate count. They've been completely irrelevant since 1984, when Walter Mondale's establishment support helped him quash Gary Hart's insurgent candidacy. But now Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are so closely matched that one of them would have to win 80% of the remaining regular delegates in primaries and caucuses to reach the 2,025 needed to clinch the nod--an enormously unlikely scenario. Which means that the race could come down to the superdelegates--specifically the 400 or so, like Norcross, who still haven't picked a candidate. Norcross has already received "a dozen" calls from the Clinton and Obama campaign sasking him to "sign on the dotted line" (as well as "at least two [daily] emails" apiece). Up next: a charm offensive from the candidates themselves.

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Amid all the wheeling and dealing, many rank-and-file Democrats are dyspeptic at the thought of a superdelegate tiebreaker--the Doomsday Scenario. How, they ask, will a superdelegate decide between the candidate who emerges from the primaries and caucuses with the most popular votes and the candidate who emerges with the most delegates? (Yes, it's a possibility.) And what if one candidate finishes with fewer votes and fewer delegates--but remains so close in the delegate count that an infusion of superdelegate support would be enough to put him or her over the top? (Also possible--and even likely. Obama, for example, currently leads Clinton in the pledged-delegate tally. But Clinton's 243-156 edge among superdelegates gives her the overall delegate lead.) Will the superdelegates be willing to thwart the will of the people? Are we heading for Bush v. Gore: The Sequel?

Wanting answers to these fascinating--and potentially decisive--questions, I gave Norcross a call. Fifteen minutes later, I hung up more confused than before. Norcross is genuinely uncommitted--asked if he's leaning, he gives a curt "no" and refuses to discuss the candidates' strengths and weakness. And he's not an elected official, unlike most of his fellow superdelegates--which means that he won't be pressured to follow the primary voters in his district or state. So I pressed him to explain how--"if we go through all the primaries and caucuses and neither candidate has reached the magic number of 2,025 delegates" --superdelegates should choose  His initial response was simple. "I think they should absolutely listen to the people," he said. Apparently, Norcross believes that the party will "reach consensus" organically. "It might be in Denver and might be before that, but we will unite all the delegates and all the members of the Democratic party behind one candidate," he said. "Someone will be the clear leader." Over and out.

Which is all well and good. If one candidate leads in pledged delegates, popular votes and number of states won, the uncommitted superdelegates will probably agree to support him or her (and should). But what if it's not so clear-cut? Asked to explain which yardstick he would use if the "voice of the people" was muddled--the popular vote? the vote in his area? the pledged delegate count?--Norcross was hazy. "Yes. Yes to all those," he said. "They're all relevant." At one point, he even suggested that he'd take the temperature of his union members. "I'm a labor guy," he said. "I have more discussions that you can shake a stick at. As any good leader would do, you need to listen to the folks who are responsible for putting you there."

Meaning that Norcross would solicit input, consider the stats--and then essentially follow his gut. It's an unsettling thought. Lacking a definitive popular choice, the superdelegates may very well do what they were designed to do--decide the Democratic nominee on their own.

I asked Norcross if he was worried that the party faithful would cry foul. "At the end of the day, in Denver, I believe the people will say that it was a fair process and we chose the best candidate," he said. "Unfortunately, this might be like sausage--you never want to see it being made, but in the end it tastes real good."

Most Democrats would agree with Norcross about the sausage. But the taste? I doubt they're as optimistic.
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Member Comments

Posted By: lindyNM (February 14, 2008 at 6:26 PM)

elsylee - obamatruth.org?  You've got to be kidding me.  I checked it out and there's no indication of who's running the website, no obvious connection to any media source, just a mish-mash of headlines revealing the scandalous "truth" about Obama.  From the very beginning, the webpage screamed 'scam'.  If you want the truth about obamatruth.org then here you go:

http://vermontersforobama.org/2007/01/25/the-truth-about-obamatruthorg/

Come on now.  I realize that the media is inherently biased and it's good to get information from a variety of sources, but if you're going to do that then be smart about it.  Just because it's out there on the web doesn't make it true.  And when you pass it on as truth, then there are plenty of other people out there who'll take you at your word and believe all that garbage.

Perhaps Obama has such a tremendous grassroots following, because so many of us are dead tired of political scandals like those the Clintons have been involved with over the years (I think Bill is the more guilty of the two by far, but she's still married to him and using him as a mouthpiece, so I consider her guilty by association).  They’ve certainly been well documented enough that they don’t require a website to point them out to us.  If Clinton does get the nomination, here's a little taste of the kind of shady dealings we can expect from our First 'Gentleman' (I use the word tentatively):

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/us/politics/31donor.html

Here’s the real truth.  This is not supposed to be a government of the politically corrupt, for the wealthy, by the lobbyists.  It is suppose to be about the people.  Obama has raised more campaign money than any other candidate and most of it has come in the form of small donations from average people.  He’s had hundreds of thousands of people donate to his campaign because they believe in him.

Don’t we owe it to ourselves to put a stop to all the political corruption of the past two decades?  Let’s stop being afraid and start demanding that the government serve the people again.  Barack Obama has a plan.  Read his books.  Read the documents on his website.  Look at his background and EXPERIENCE, both political and personal.  He also happens to be an incredibly gifted speaker who inspires people to believe and hope that change will occur if he is elected.  But if we don’t give him the chance, then we know what we’ll get.  More of the same.  I’m tired of being told to be afraid and go shopping.  I’m tired of Bill and Hillary Clinton thinking they can pull the wool over the eyes of the American people with every lie and scandal they spawn.

Barack Obama says he’ll change things and all the naysayers do is demand details.  Obama supporters realize that he IS the change.  His entire message embodies a new way of looking at the problems we face in this country today.  He’s a highly intelligent man and he’ll surround himself with highly intelligent, QUALIFIED people.  He’ll do what it takes to get the job done and the specifics are going to get hammered out as the changes happen.  Quit asking for details and give him the chance to prove what he’s worth.  He’s already done it many times over in his past.  He can do great things if we let him.


Posted By: liveforpets (February 14, 2008 at 5:43 PM)

I think the reason Obama is dominating the media is because he's different.  Hillary may be a woman, but she is the same old establishment.  Do we really want to go Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton?  He looks different and sounds different.  The media is always attracted to what is new.  But that is not why I support him.  As a resident of Illinois when he used bi-partisian ways to pass important legislation, and did as mush of what he promised as he could, I trust him.  I'm excited to supoort a candidate who understands the world I live in and what is important to me.  I don't bash Hillary, I'm just ready to try something new.  Something old really hasn't work too well.


Posted By: SusaninIN (February 14, 2008 at 12:56 PM)

This country was definitely founded on inspiration, dreams, and hope.  Do you think our ancestors who founded this country did not have dreams, hopes and inspire to a better future?  What about the people who voted for JFK?  I'm sure they were inspired about a better future and I don't think they were disappointed in their choice.  What about all of the people that immigrated to our country through the years?  No one would ever make such drastic changes in their lives without hopes and dreams.  

That is definitely what is wrong with our country today, we have lost the ability to be inspired and believe in higher ideals!  I will suppport Obama just for that chance to be inspired.  Without that we might as well give up on ever making a difference.  I refuse to give up on my hopes and dreams.  Anyone who is too jaded to see a good thing when it comes along should go ahead and vote for Hillary.  I prefer to take the high road!


 
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