Don Norcross is moving up. First he was an electrician with the
IBW--although, as he puts it, he'd "been with organized labor in one
fashion or another since birth." Then about a dozen years ago the
46-year old resident of Voorhees, N.J. became president of the local
AFL-CIO. Next up: politics. In 2000, Norcross followed his brother
George--"profane, boastful and sure of his power," writes the Star-Ledger,
he's "one of the state's most formidable political bosses"--into the
Democratic fray, rising to the position of party chairman in Camden
County. But his latest position is undoubtedly his most powerful. Come
August, Norcross--along with approximately 796 congressmen, senators,
governors, party members and power players--could very well pick the
next Democratic nominee for president of the United States.
Don Norcross is, in other words, a superdelegate.
You've
probably heard of them at this point. Created in 1980 by the party
establishment to wrestle control back from the rabble--who'd just
chosen George McGovern and Jimmy Carter--superdelegates represent 19
percent of the Democratic party's total delegate count. They've been completely irrelevant since 1984,
when Walter Mondale's establishment support helped him quash
Gary Hart's insurgent candidacy. But
now Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are so closely matched that one of
them would have to win 80% of
the remaining regular delegates in primaries and caucuses to reach the
2,025 needed to clinch the nod--an
enormously unlikely scenario. Which means that the race could come down
to the superdelegates--specifically the 400 or so,
like Norcross, who still haven't picked a candidate. Norcross has
already received "a dozen" calls from the Clinton and Obama
campaign sasking him to "sign on the dotted line" (as well as "at least
two [daily] emails" apiece). Up next: a charm offensive from the candidates themselves.
Amid all the wheeling and dealing, many rank-and-file Democrats are
dyspeptic at the thought of a superdelegate
tiebreaker--the Doomsday Scenario. How, they ask, will
a superdelegate decide between the candidate who emerges from the
primaries and caucuses with the most popular votes and the candidate
who emerges with the most delegates? (Yes, it's a possibility.) And
what if one candidate finishes with fewer votes and fewer
delegates--but remains so close in the delegate count that an infusion
of superdelegate support would be enough to put him or her over the
top? (Also possible--and even likely. Obama, for example,
currently leads Clinton in the pledged-delegate tally. But Clinton's
243-156 edge among superdelegates gives her the overall delegate lead.) Will the superdelegates be willing to thwart the will of the people? Are we heading for Bush v. Gore: The Sequel?
Wanting answers to these fascinating--and potentially decisive--questions, I gave Norcross a call. Fifteen
minutes later, I hung up more confused than before. Norcross is
genuinely uncommitted--asked if he's leaning, he gives a curt "no" and
refuses to discuss the candidates' strengths and weakness. And he's not
an elected official, unlike most of his fellow superdelegates--which
means that he won't be pressured to follow the primary voters in his
district or state. So I pressed him to explain how--"if we go through
all the primaries and caucuses and neither candidate has reached the
magic number of 2,025 delegates" --superdelegates should choose His initial response was simple. "I think they should absolutely listen to
the people," he said. Apparently, Norcross believes that the party will
"reach
consensus" organically. "It might be in Denver and might be before that, but we
will unite all the delegates and all the members of the Democratic
party behind one candidate," he said. "Someone will be the clear
leader." Over and out.
Which is all well and good. If one candidate leads in pledged
delegates, popular votes and number of states won, the uncommitted
superdelegates will probably agree to support him or her (and should).
But what if it's not so clear-cut? Asked to explain which yardstick he
would use if the "voice of the people" was muddled--the popular vote? the vote in
his area? the pledged delegate count?--Norcross was hazy. "Yes. Yes to
all those," he said. "They're all relevant." At one point, he even
suggested that he'd take the temperature of his union members. "I'm a
labor guy," he said. "I have more discussions that you can shake a
stick at. As any good leader would do, you need to listen to the folks
who are responsible for putting you there."
Meaning that Norcross would solicit input,
consider the stats--and then essentially follow his gut. It's an
unsettling thought. Lacking a definitive popular choice, the superdelegates
may very well do what they were designed to do--decide the Democratic
nominee on their own.
I asked Norcross if he was worried that the party faithful would cry foul. "At the end of the day, in Denver, I believe the
people will say that it was a fair process and we chose the best
candidate," he said. "Unfortunately, this might be like sausage--you never want to
see it being made, but in the end it tastes real good."
Most Democrats would agree with Norcross about the sausage. But the taste? I doubt they're as optimistic.