Newsweek - National News, World News, Health, Technology, Entertainment and more... | Newsweek.com
SPONSORED BY
Full Post
Posted Wednesday, April 23, 2008 11:27 AM

Flashback: The Popular Vote Still Doesn't Add Up

Andrew Romano

Terry McAuliffe is a quick draw. Last night, mere seconds after the networks had crowned Hillary Clinton the Keystone State victor, the former DNC chairman--and current Clinton adviser--was already on the air, spinning like a top. His main talking point? It's the popular vote, stupid. "By the time we finish this process," he told MSNBC at 9:20 p.m., "Hillary Clinton will have moved ahead in the popular vote."

We can sympathize. Winning in Pennsylvania earned Clinton only 10 to 12 pledged delegates, which is a lot less than the 150 or so separating her from Barack Obama at the start of the night. And the Illinois senator will inevitably erase her gains with a big win in North Carolina. That said, the New York senator did manage to pick up more than 200,000 votes, significantly narrowing Obama's lead of 800,000--and giving her the potential to pass him if Florida (and, perhaps, Michigan) are ever factored in. (McAuliffe, of course, included the Sunshine State in his count.) So it's understandable that Clinton and Co. want to deemphasize the delegates and argue that the popular vote is the proper metric for determining the Democratic nomination.

The thing is, it's also preposterous. For starters, the Democratic rules clearly state that delegates, not votes, are decisive. But even if you grant that Team Clinton is only asking tiebreaking superdelegates to consider the popular vote when choosing a candidate--and not claiming that votes should replace delegates altogether--there's still a pesky little problem to deal with: the popular vote is completely and utterly uncountable. So as speculation swirls and the math gets mangled, we thought it'd be a good time to remind you, dear reader, of a few incontrovertible truths. From our April 4 item entitled "The Popular Vote Fallacy" (updated to reflect the most recent results):

Advertisement

Here's the math. To date, 41 of the 47 states or territories to hold primaries or caucuses have released precise, undisputed popular-vote totals. In this count, according to RealClear Politics, Obama leads Clinton by 501,138 votes (14,397,506 to 13,896,368). So far, so good. But what, you ask, about the remaining six states? That's where we get into trouble.

First, there's Florida. Despite warnings from the Democratic National Committee, the Sunshine State scheduled its primary before Feb. 5--and true to its word, the party stripped the state of its delegates. That said, we're not talking about delegates; we're talking about votes. In Florida, where both Obama and Clinton were on the ballot, Clinton won by 294,772 (870,986 to 576,214). It's an open question, of course, whether a primary in which both candidates refrained from campaigning should even count. But let's say, for the sake of argument, that it should--which reduces Obama's popular-vote advantage to 206,366. Unfortunately, this doesn't help us much.

Next up is Florida's fellow gun-jumper, Michigan, where Clinton racked up 328,309 votes. Obama's total? Zero. That's because his name wasn't even listed on the ballot. On Jan. 19, Michiganders had two choices: Clinton or "uncommitted." And while "uncommitted" earned about 45 percent of the vote, it's impossible to determine what portion of that bloc backed Obama and what portion backed John Edwards, whose name was also absent. Ignoring the fact that Clinton herself said Michigan wouldn't "count for anything," this murkiness alone makes an overall popular-vote tally impractical: either you award all of the "uncommitted" votes to Obama, which would be grossly inaccurate; count Clinton's votes and leave Obama at zero, which would undoubtedly disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Obama supporters; or don't include Michigan at all, which would disenfranchise even more, both pro-Clinton and pro-Obama.

That said, the worst is yet to come. The final four states--Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington--all held caucuses. But unlike Florida and Michigan, none of them even kept track of how many people voted for each candidate. (This is standard operating procedure in some caucuses, where delegates are awarded proportionally in thousands of precincts.) Wonks can devise equations to estimate the popular vote all they want, but mixing precise vote totals from other states with caucus approximations--which are, by definition, inaccurate--is mixing apples and oranges. Besides, thousands of voters in Iowa entered the caucuses intending to support Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich, but were forced to jump to Obama, Edwards or Clinton once their preferred candidate didn't reach the 15-percent viability threshold; in Nevada, the same thing happened to Edwards supporters. How can you possibly pretend to count people required to resort to their second choices?

The fact is, the Democratic Party has only one mechanism in place for deciding the nomination: delegates. The system is simply not equipped to produce an accurate tally of popular votes.

Clinton is hoping that some strange, hybrid form of overall ballot approximation will delegitimize Obama's inevitable pledged delegate victory and spur the supers to declare her the "people's choice"-- however incomplete, imprecise or selective that approximation (necessarily) is. And now that two-hundred thousand Pennsylvanians have put her one step closer to making that dream a reality, Terry McAuliffe couldn't be happier.

But that doesn't mean he's right. 

You must be a registered user to comment.  Click here to register.  Already a user?  Click here to login.

Member Comments

Posted By: wiesci1 (April 26, 2008 at 3:36 PM)

yES, WE  MUST COUNT ALL VOTES INCL. MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA, AND THIS IS A "MUST". WE WILL LOSE TO REPUBLICAN IF WE DONT PUT HILLARY INTO WHITE HOUSE, WE WONT EVEN GET CLOSE IN NOVEMBER!!!

OBAMA WILL BE TRASH BY REPUBLICAN MACJINE, BUT HILLARY IS A TRUE FIGHTER, AND SHE WILL LEAD US THERE. OBAMA HAS NO CHANCES, WITH HIS DIRTY MASS-PASS, THEY WILL DESTROY HIM.

i BELIEVE, THAT HE HAS CONNECTIONS WITH MUSLEM WORLD, AND HAMMAS LOVES TO SEE OBAMA INT THE WHITE HOUSE. WE CAN NOT AFFORD TO LET THIS HAPPEND!!!!!!


Posted By: powin (April 26, 2008 at 11:31 AM)

Romano's latest afterthought is akin to flatulence from a freshman writer.  You're an edifice of transparency, Andrew; everyone can see see through you and Newsweek, that is, and one should consiider this:

"Public relations is a huge industry. . .something on the order of a billion dollars a year. All along its commitment is to control the public mind.... [For example], "Support our troops." Who can be against that? The issue is, Do you support our policy? But you don't want people to think about the issue. We've got to distract them. They should be watching the Superbowl or sitcoms or violent movies...."

"Media news people, frequently operating with complete integrity and goodwill, are able to convince themselves that they choose and interpret the news "objectively" and on the basis of professional news values....Voter attention is to be focused on style, personality (does this remind anyone of "Yes We Can") —anything but the issues that are of primary concern to the concentrated private power centers that largely finance campaigns and run the government" (Noam Chomsky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Those who purport that the frontrunner will unite people have already demonstrated that the frontrunner will unite no one except perhaps the myopic misanthropists who, most likely, will be in a seething cauldron of woeful, broken promises teeming with scintillating rhetoric.

Share this with the superdelegates.


Posted By: powin (April 26, 2008 at 11:30 AM)

Romano's latest afterthought is akin to flatulence from a freshman writer.  You're an edifice of transparency, Andrew; everyone can see see through you and Newsweek, that is, and one should consiider this:

"Public relations is a huge industry. . .something on the order of a billion dollars a year. All along its commitment is to control the public mind.... [For example], "Support our troops." Who can be against that? The issue is, Do you support our policy? But you don't want people to think about the issue. We've got to distract them. They should be watching the Superbowl or sitcoms or violent movies...."

"Media news people, frequently operating with complete integrity and goodwill, are able to convince themselves that they choose and interpret the news "objectively" and on the basis of professional news values....Voter attention is to be focused on style, personality (does this remind anyone of "Yes We Can") —anything but the issues that are of primary concern to the concentrated private power centers that largely finance campaigns and run the government" (Noam Chomsky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Those who purport that the frontrunner will unite people have already demonstrated that the frontrunner will unite no one except perhaps the myopic misanthropists who, most likely, will be in a seething cauldron of woeful, broken promises teeming with scintillating rhetoric.

Share this with the superdelegates.