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Posted Thursday, April 24, 2008 12:38 PM

Math vs. Mirage

Andrew Romano

Ah, the popular vote. Hillary Clinton isn't planning to let go--so neither will we.

Yesterday, we reported that former DNC chairman--and current Clinton adviser--Terry McAuliffe appeared on MSNBC mere seconds after Clinton won Pennsylvania's primary and announced that she "will have moved ahead in the popular vote... by the time we finish this process." Now the campaign is saying she's already there. According to my colleague Suzanne Smalley, Clinton's aides staked out the aisle of the press plane yesterday morning and proclaimed that with Pennsylvania's big victory, Clinton had finally won more votes, overall, than Barack Obama. And on the stump in Indianapolis, the candidate herself chimed in. "I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anyone else," she said. 

Is this true? Sure--if you ignore (or, to put it less mildly, disenfranchise) hundreds of thousands of likely Obama voters. Here's why: any vote tally that shows Clinton in the lead has to include Michigan; without it, she trails by at least 200,000. The problem is, while Clinton won 328,309 votes in the Great Lakes state, Obama got zero. That's because his name wasn't even listed on the ballot. On Jan. 19, Michiganders had two choices: Clinton or "uncommitted." And while "uncommitted" earned about 45 percent of the vote, it's impossible to determine what portion of that bloc backed Obama and what portion backed John Edwards, whose name was also absent. Talk about fuzzy math.

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Of course, Clinton doesn't really care about the numerical nitty-gritty.The point of emphasizing the popular vote--which, as I wrote yesterday, is impossible to count accurately, considering that several caucus states don't even keep track of it--isn't to settle on a mathematically sound tally and suggest that it should replace delegates as the proper metric for determining the Democratic nomination. Clinton knows that the rules won't change mid-game. But she also knows that neither she nor Obama can reach a delegate-majority on pledged delegates alone--which means that the superdelegates will inevitably have to put one of them over the top. Right now, they're breaking for Obama, who has an unshakable lead in the pledged delegate count; to do otherwise at this point would risk contradicting the "will of the people." But superdelegates are free to decide however they want; them's the rules, too. And if Clinton can convince these party poo-bahs that she's won the popular vote--even if it's a (necessarily) incomplete, imprecise or selective approximation--then maybe they'll consider her the "people's choice" and have some political cover for committing.

Or so the thinking goes. Yesterday on Air Hillary, aides originally added two caveats to their claim that Clinton was leading Obama in the popular vote: 1) that Florida and Michigan should count and 2) that the 12 caucus states should not. When a reporter accused them of "making up a metric," they checked their math--and discovered that (counting Florida and Michigan) Clinton was ahead by 12,000 even with the caucus states included. Which only proves my point. Team Clinton is perfectly willing to erase whole states to make their case; they're making up favorable ways to count the uncountable popular vote as they go along. In other words, it's not the math that matters. It's the mirage.
 

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Member Comments

Posted By: Jannett (April 25, 2008 at 12:55 PM)

I'm a Grandma but I'm not part of Senator Clinton's Grandma Brigade.  I believe that Mrs. Clinton must not have finished school or had any schooling at all when she starts talking about how much she's ahead of Senator Obama.  I really think that she's not even a good role-model for a woman, either in politics or as a mother, Grandma, etc.


Posted By: revolved (April 24, 2008 at 3:29 PM)

It's like Hillary's playing Texas Hold 'em. She gets to the river and doesn't have a winning hand. She goes "all in" but demands that a sixth and seventh card be turned over, in hopes that maybe the new cards will help give her a winning hand. Obama doesn't need or want the extra cards as that would be, you know...against the rules.

Hillary: three of a kind (three 6s)

Obama: full house (kings and queens)

Obama wins!


Posted By: Realbill (April 24, 2008 at 1:45 PM)

Obama won't be getting my senior vote.  I'm a Florida democrat.

We've had all this discussion about our vote in the Florida primary, and I get the dnc rule issue even if I strongly disagree.  Please help me understand, Who paid for this primary vote?  Did the dnc pay for any of it?  I don't think so.  The dnc ruled and I hear everyone say that the candidates accepted the idea that the delegates would not be seated. But it is my belief that the dnc ruling has nothing to do with the popular vote.  The dnc cannot disallow our vote as it relates to the popular vote.

That would be up to the state government, and I believe that the United States Constitution supports this argument:

Section 4 - Elections, Meetings

The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Place of Chusing Senators.

Amendment 24 - Poll Tax Barred. Ratified 1/23/1964. History

1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote in any primary or other election for President or Vice President, for electors for President or Vice President, or for Senator or Representative in Congress, shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State by reason of failure to pay any poll tax or other tax.

2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Amendment 26 - Voting Age Set to 18 Years. Ratified 7/1/1971. History

1. The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age.

2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

My vote should definitely count in the popular vote.

And, anyone who would deny this right should not be in any U.S. government office; elected or appointed.  A president must support the United States Constitution.  In fact senators swear to uphold the constitution, isn’t there a rule about their not doing this since its their job.