Here's my NEWSWEEK colleague Jonathan Alter's take on the meaning of the May 6 primary results:
Last week, not a soul in politics would have
predicted that Obama would win North Carolina by 14 points and
virtually tie in Indiana. But through a combination of luck and smarts,
the campaign ended on the theme that Obama ran on: Old politics vs. new
politics.
By conventional standards, Clinton was in
the groove, focusing on bread-and-butter issues and pummeling Obama for
being out-of-touch with angry motorists. Many pundits reported that
"the working girl" was "on fire" and on the move.
Traveling
around North Carolina and Indiana, I wasn't sure. But two things struck
me as encouraging for Obama. First, I went to a big Clinton event in
Indianapolis on Saturday night and noticed there were no more than a
handful of African-Americans in a crowd of several thousand. For all
the talk about white blue-collar workers (a group that gave only 41
percent of its votes to Bill Clinton in 1992), the most important
demographic group this year was unquestionably black women, who were
expected when the campaign began to split 50-50--but have been going
90-10 for Obama. That boded well in North Carolina. A woman candidate
cannot win the Democratic nomination without at least some
African-American women. Period.
The second encouraging
sign for Obama was the candidate himself. His press conference
denouncing Wright didn't end the issue for good, but it did put enough
distance between himself and Wright to help neutralize the damage. More
important, Obama's decision to push back on the gas tax actually
worked. Refusing to pander reminded his base among college-educated
voters of the reasons they liked him in the first place.
It
also helped Obama recover his rhythm. After watching him sink some
baskets on Sunday, I had a few words with him. "I feel really good
about that [the gas tax position]," he said. "We had veered into the
conventional, and now we're back." This was a huge gamble and it paid
off.
In the end Obama showed the kind of resilience that
was supposed to apply only to the Clintons. Between May and November,
Obama will have other low moments. But now he has some experience
surviving them.
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