And by "she," we don't mean Syesha Mercado.
After
Barack Obama's sizable win in North Carolina and virtual tie in
Indiana, it's the question on the tip of every political tongue this
morning: will Hillary Clinton continue her campaign--and, if so, for
how long? Last night, the Clinton camp had two goals: either a) make
massive gains in the delegate and/or popular-vote tallies, where Obama
holds solid advantages or b) perform well enough--perhaps with a win on
Obama's home turf in
North Carolina--to sow further doubts about his electability
among the remaining superdelegates. Clinton accomplished neither. In
Indiana and North Carolina, Obama racked up a net gain of 15 pledged
delegates and about 210,000 votes, enough to pretty much erase
Clinton's Pennsylvania advances (12 delegates, about 214,000 votes).
And the climb only gets steeper from here. The remaining six
primaries--West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana and
Puerto Rico--award a total of 217 delegates. Assuming that Clinton wins
60 percent of those delegates and Obama only 40 percent--a very
generous
assumption, given that the Illinois senator is heavily favored in
Oregon, South Dakota
and Montana--Clinton will close out regulation with 1,823 delegates to
Obama's
1,932. That means that he'll need 93 (or 35 percent) of the remaining
superdelegates to reach 2,025 and clinch the nomination; she'll need
202, or 76 percent. The problem? Despite Rev. Wright, Bittergate and
three consecutive major primary
losses,
Obama has picked up 100 superdelegates since Super Tuesday--and Clinton
has swayed fewer than 15. Robbed of any momentum she had going into
last
night--and with Obama arguing that his strong showing demonstrates his
durability--it's almost impossible to imagine her reversing that trend
now.
Still, the senator from New York
looks likely to soldier on. As I flew from Raleigh to New York this
morning, Team Clinton worked diligently to regain its footing. Confirming rumors about the campaign's flagging financial health,
Clinton aide Howard Wolfson admitted during a media conference call
that Clinton had given herself a series of new loans that (unlike her
first $5 million bail out back in February) were probably drawn from
her joint assets with Bill--$5 million on April 11, $1 million on May 1
and $425,000 on May 5, for a grand total of $11.4 million. Meanwhile,
at least one high-profile Clinton superdelegate supporter--former presidential
candidate George McGovern--switched his allegiance to Obama and called on her to drop out. But the Clintonites seemed undaunted. On the call,
chief strategist Geoff Garin called Indiana "a close outcome, but an
outcome about which we feel very, very good"; suggested that Clinton
had made "progress" in North Carolina; and continued to stress the
candidate's strength among blue-collar voters, which he now explicitly
called the "white electorate." A half-hour later, Obama's staff and
supporters made sure to remind reporters on a conference call of their
own that Clinton has no "legitimate" mathematical path to the
nomination; that Obama's performance among working-class voters
actually improved in yesterday's primaries; and even that the
much-discussed "Limbaugh Effect" may have accounted for Clinton's
narrow, 18,000-vote margin in the Hoosier State. But not one of them
was willing to say she should quit. "It would be inappropriate and
awkward and wrong for any of us to tell
Senator Clinton when it is time for the race to be over," said Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, a prominent Obama supporter.
"This is her decision and it is only her decision... What we don't want to do right now is be disrespectful."
And
that's as it should be. At a stop this afternoon in Shepherdstown,
W.Va.--hastily scheduled at 3:00 a.m. last night to quiet speculation
that her withdrawal is imminent--Clinton told the crowd that she will
run "until there's a nominee." But her stump speech had changed since
Indiana and North Carolina. Gone were the gas-tax broadsides--and the hard
contrasts with Obama. This was her straightforward economic pitch,
plain and simple. In his forward-looking address last night at
Raleigh's Reynolds Coliseum, Obama focused most of his fire on John
McCain--and seemed to offer Clinton something of a truce. "This has
been one of the longest, most closely fought contests in history," he
said. "And that's partly because we have such a formidable opponent in
Senator Hillary Clinton. Tonight, many of the pundits have suggested
that this party is inalterably divided--that Senator Clinton's
supporters will not support me, and that my supporters will not support
her. Well, I'm here tonight to tell you that I don't believe it... This
primary season may not be over, but when it is... we intend to march
forward as one Democratic Party, united by a common vision for this
country." Unable "to sustain a full-out, combative
campaign -- to stay on offense, and to raise the money it takes to do
so," as Ben Smith
puts it--Clinton seems to have accepted his offer. As she said last
night, apropos of nothing, "No matter what happens, I will work for the
nominee of the Democratic Party." The harsh attacks may well be over.
For
the remainder of the month, then, expect Clinton to continue her
twilight campaign. She's promised to run until every state votes, and
until the question of Florida and Michigan is resolved, which won't
happen
until the DNC's Rules Committee meets on May 31. I imagine she'll keep
those promises. Until then, let's all relax. With more votes and more
delegates than any Democratic or Republican runner-up in American
history, Clinton has every right to reach the finish line. And as long
as she continues to make her own case, as she did today in
Shepherdstown--and doesn't attempt to destroy Obama--it probably
behooves the 51 percent of the party that supports her rival to respect
the 49 percent that doesn't.
UPDATE, 3:34 p.m.: The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder has "seven reasons why Clinton should stay in the race"--and "seven reasons why Clinton should quit, now." All 14 of them are smart, so you should definitely take a look.
Two excerpts:
Stay # 4. The Ask. Does Clinton want to be Obama's vice
president? Who knows? But does Clinton want to be asked whether she
wants to be his vice president and thus be in a position to decline it?
Surely. The more Obama is reminded that Clinton cannot not be dispensed
with, the more pressure he will feel to at least solicit her views on
the subject of the vice presidency.
Go # 1. It's over. Forget the sideshows and the
hypotheticals. Once the party has its nominee, and only then, can the
process of healing begin. The longer Clinton stays in the race, the
more she postpones the point at which the party comes together.