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Posted Monday, June 09, 2008 8:05 AM

The Filter: June 9, 2008

Andrew Romano

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

OLD PARTISAN GAP IS BACK, BROAD AND LOOMING LARGE
(John Harwood, New York Times)

In the nine presidential elections beginning in 1952, Republican nominees drew an average of 20 percent support among voters identifying themselves as Democrats. In the five elections beginning in 1988, they averaged 12 percent. Democratic nominees drew an average of 9 percent of the Republican vote in the five elections. That shift has largely favored Republicans, the victors in nine of the last 14 presidential contests. In what the British journalists John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge dubbed “the Right Nation,” there are more conservatives than liberals. Yet the short-term trends flow in Mr. Obama’s direction. On Election Day 2004, exit polls showed the proportion of self-described partisans to be identical: 37 percent described themselves as Democrats, and 37 percent as Republicans. Mr. Bush’s unhappy second term has seen that balance shift dramatically. Two years after the Democrats’ midterm election sweep of both houses of Congress, 46 percent of Americans labeled themselves Democrats and 33 percent Republicans in the most recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. Mr. Obama’s task over the next 22 weeks is to hold that partisan advantage.

OBAMA MAPS A NATIONWIDE PUSH IN GOP STRONGHOLDS
(Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny, New York Times)

While the lengthy, contentious Democratic primary fight against Mrs. Clinton exposed vulnerabilities in Mr. Obama that the Republicans will no doubt seek to exploit, it also allowed him to build a nearly nationwide network of volunteers and professional organizers. While early assertions by presidential campaigns that they intend to expand the playing field are often little more than feints intended to force opponents to spend time and money defending states that they should have locked up, Mr. Obama’s fund-raising success gives his campaign more flexibility than most to play in more places. Mr. Obama’s aides said some states where they intend to campaign — like Georgia, Missouri, Montana and North Carolina — might ultimately be too red to turn blue. But the result of making an effort there could force Mr. McCain to spend money or send him to campaign in what should be safe ground, rather than using those resources in states like Ohio. 

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EACH PARTY IS SET TO HUNT THE OTHER'S USUAL GROUND
(Dan Balz, Washington Post)

The Kerry map gives Obama 252 electoral votes. To pick up the next 18 electoral votes, Obama will target Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. His list also includes Ohio, where he lost the primary to Clinton but which, in the 2006 midterms, shifted dramatically toward the Democrats. McCain's advisers expressed equal confidence that their candidate can hit the 270 mark, despite a political environment that Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, called "a major hurdle for us."... McCain hopes to tap potential divisions within the Democratic Party by aggressively targeting disaffected Clinton supporters. "I would not have said that we would have targeted Democratic voters in the numbers we're looking at six months ago or four months ago," Davis said, adding: "We've seen significant movement in our direction." McCain hopes those voters will help him hold on to Ohio, which has been critical to Republican success in the last two elections, and convert Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to the GOP column.

MCCAIN AND OBAMA: THE ODD CANDIDATES
(Carrie Budoff Brown and Jonathan Martin, Politico)

To understand the stylistic gulf between Barack Obama and John McCain, first consider their cultural references. The Republican enjoys a good Henny Youngman one-liner and the 1970s Swedish pop group ABBA. He tells jokes about drunken Irish twins, and the reason he had to join the Navy instead of the Marines: His parents were married when he was born. The Democrat, meanwhile, professes to “love the art of hip-hop.” He listens to Jay-Z, Beyoncé and old-school favorites like Stevie Wonder on his IPod. Chicago is “ChiTown,” sneakers are “kicks” and knuckle bumps are at times his greeting of choice. Over the next five months, McCain and Obama will delineate differences not just on substance, but also on style. They are well-cast foes, cutting distinctions on presentation, personality and personal image. One is the master of the arena rally, the other the town hall. One can shrug it off, the other not as much. One can be stylish and professorial, the other corny and occasionally prickly. 

MORE: The Unhappy Warrior (Jonathan Martin, Politico)
Openly frustrated by what they see as an ongoing double standard in the press's treatment of his campaign, Sen. John McCain and his aides have been aggressively denouncing unfavorable stories as "smear jobs" and "scurrilous attacks," while the candidate himself has launched a series of stinging attacks on Sen. Barack Obama. It's a dangerous posture for a candidate whose political success is intimately tied with his image as an irrepressible happy warrior ... McCain and his small coterie of fiercely loyal advisers ... [have] already raised the question of whether McCain can maintain his upbeat warrior image while running an uphill race against an opponent for whom the candidate can barely conceal his contempt.

A CAMPAIGN WE CAN BELIEVE IN?
(William Kristol, New York Times)

Almost every Republican I’ve talked to is alarmed that the McCain campaign doesn’t seem up to the task of electing John McCain. Several of these worried McCain supporters cited the decision by the campaign gurus that McCain’s Tuesday night speech should consist in large part of criticisms of Obama’s various proposals. The attacks often concluded, “That’s not change we can believe in.” Is it wise to begin a general election campaign by making fun of your opponent’s slogan and presenting yourself mostly as a debunker of his claims? Even hard-hearted Republicans think a general election message should be a bit more positive than that... With the Iraq war going badly, McCain took the lead in calling for a change in military strategy and a surge of troops. Obama, by contrast, went along with his party in urging withdrawal. Now, 18 months later, McCain seems pretty clearly to have been right. Can McCain get voters to compare his judgment with Obama’s in a moment when the two of them were confronted with a weighty choice? Can McCain get voters to consider his leadership in this instance, and get them to ask when Obama took a similarly courageous stand on any issue? Yes he can — but it’s not clear if his campaign will be much help.

MORE: GOP Insiders Worry About McCain's Chances (Thomas Edsall, Huffington Post)
In not-for-attribution interviews, a number of Republicans were neither optimistic about his chances nor positive in their assessment of his campaign so far. "I think we've got a world of problems," said one Republican strategist with extensive experience in presidential campaigns. He said this came home to him with a thud when he watched Obama and McCain give speeches last Tuesday, with the Democrat speaking before "20,000 screaming fans, while John McCain looked every bit of his 72 years" in a speech televised from New Orleans. This Republican cited the liberal blogger Atrios' description of McCain's speech with a green backdrop that made McCain "look like the cottage cheese in a lime Jell-O salad."

JOHN MCCAIN'S OHIO DISCONNECT
(Peter Wallsten, Los Angeles Times)

Some Republicans say they are also troubled that the McCain campaign has not been faster to build a get-out-the-vote operation in Ohio, a state that is again expected to be a key battleground. These Republicans, who have a close-up view of events, worry that McCain will be overpowered by Obama's ability to motivate activists. "I'm going to be very honest with everyone in this room," said Hamilton County GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou as he threw his hands in the air during a speech last week at a Republican club dinner in suburban Cincinnati. "We are a little bit frustrated with the ability of the McCain campaign to get going." This time four years ago, Triantafilou recalled, he had already taken leave from his county government job to work full time for Bush's reelection. "By June 1, we were humping hard on the presidential campaign," he said. While waiting for the McCain team, the county party has launched a voter registration drive of its own. 

CLINTON'S SUPPORTERS STILL WARY OF OBAMA
(Mark Niquette, Columbus Dispatch)

Last week, The Dispatch retraced Clinton's trip, and in interviews with nearly three dozen people in places she visited, it was clear that although Obama has fans in the region, he has work to do...wary of what they see as a lack of experience or the controversy surrounding comments by Obama's former pastor. And although few will talk about it, there also is an open question about what role race will play. Herman Kaiser, 73, of Martins Ferry, said he doesn't think race is much of a factor for younger people, but it will be an issue for his generation. "Don't let anyone tell you (some people) aren't prejudiced," Kaiser, a retired steelworker, said while visiting the Ohio Valley Mall in St. Clairsville. Several Clinton supporters said it would help Obama if he named Clinton as his running mate. "I don't think Obama can beat McCain by himself," said Pam Wiseman, 48, a sixth-grade teacher from Gallipolis. Another major factor in Appalachia Ohio could be the influence of Gov. Ted Strickland, who grew up near Lucasville and whose aggressive campaigning for Clinton helped her carry all but five counties statewide in the primary... Strickland has vowed to campaign hard for Obama this fall. The governor said Friday he will encourage Obama to spend time in Appalachia and focus on such "kitchen table issues" as jobs and health care. "I think if he does that and does it effectively, with my help -- and I will help -- that the folks in the communities that you've just visited will give him an honest hearing," Strickland said.

CLINTON POTPOURRI
New York Times: The Long Road to a Clinton Exit (Peter Baker and Jim Rutenberg)
Backed by Bill Clinton, Mr. Penn pushed for aggressive attacks on Mr. Obama, something other advisers resisted. At one point, Mr. Penn argued that Mrs. Clinton should find subtle ways to exploit what he called Mr. Obama’s “lack of American roots,” referring to his Kenyan father and his childhood years in Indonesia and even the offshore state of Hawaii, the campaign officials said. Mr. Penn recommended that Mrs. Clinton own the word “American” — she should talk about the “American century” and her “American Strategic Energy Fund,” and so forth. She should add flag symbols to her logo, he suggested.

Washington Post: 'She Touched a Lot of People' (Eli Saslow)
Five family members gathered last Thursday afternoon in their living room, shades drawn, to remember. They sat in big, cushioned chairs and shared stories to fight their sadness. There was the time Hillary asked them for money, and they cobbled together about $50 even though they couldn't spare it. Or the time Hillary encouraged them to walk door to-door around the neighborhood, and they overcame shyness and spent the afternoon laughing with new friends... Their wake-like ceremony for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign involved all the usual stages of grief, from denial to depression and from anger to acceptance. Like thousands of other Clinton supporters across the country last week, they mourned the political passing of a woman who so inspired them that she felt less like a distant politician than a dear friend. 

Politico: Will Clinton Take the Blame if Obama Fails? (Ben Adler)
While the point might eventually prove moot, her decision to remain in the race well past the point in which Obama appeared to have an insurmountable delegate lead has nevertheless generated discussion about what responsibility, if any, she might bear in the event of an Obama loss... Democratic strategists, elected officials and political analysts interviewed by Politico agreed that any debate that surfaces over her culpability will be colored by how hard Clinton works to heal the rift between now and Election Day. 

New York Times: Campaign Adds to Complicated Clinton Legacy (John M. Broder and Robin Toner)
The Clintons often seemed out of touch with the political times — cautious when they should have been bold, negative when they should have been inspirational. Exquisitely attuned to the political winds in 1992, they watched Mr. Obama almost effortlessly master the changed environment of 2008.

OBAMA'S CAMPAIGN CHIEF: LOW PROFILE, HIGH IMPACT
(John McCormick, Chicago Tribune) 

Baseball and politics are two of David Plouffe's passions. So it was natural that his love for one game reinforced something that proved crucial in the other: Singles can score runs. As Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager, Plouffe was the mastermind behind a winning strategy that looked well past Super Tuesday's contests on Feb. 5 and placed value on large and small states. The campaign had the money to make such a potentially low-yield wager, and Plouffe had long understood that the Democratic Party's complex system for apportioning convention delegates meant winning even one congressional district in a state could help generate the total needed to reach the magic number... The plan, which had been in his head at least as far back as late 2006, was partly out of necessity because Clinton's early name recognition and party ties gave her advantages in big states. The strategy proved itself in the two weeks after Feb. 5, as Obama won 11 contests in a row and achieved a delegate lead he never would lose. In late February, Plouffe reportedly confided to a colleague that he believed a mathematical tipping point had been reached.

TOP TALENT SCOUT FOR OBAMA TIED TO SUBPRIME LENDER
(Josh Gerstein, New York Sun)

Long-standing ties between a member of Senator Obama's new vice presidential search team and a prominent mortgage executive the senator has pilloried could become a political liability that hampers the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee's ability to tap into public ire over the subprime mortgage crisis. James Johnson, one of three people tapped by Mr. Obama recently to oversee the search for his running mate, took at least five real estate loans totaling more than $7 million from Countrywide Financial Corp. through an informal program for friends of the company's CEO, Angelo Mozilo, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.
 

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