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Posted Thursday, June 12, 2008 8:21 AM

The Filter: June 12, 2008

Andrew Romano

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

WILL THE ELECTION BE ALL ABOUT OBAMA?
(Steven Stark, Boston Phoenix)

There is always a threshold over which nominees must pass when the electorate decides whether a candidate can be trusted with the most powerful job in the world... The good news for Obama is that most nominees do, in fact, successfully make the transition, especially when there is an overriding desire for change. John F. Kennedy in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980, and Bill Clinton in 1992 all faced an initially skeptical electorate and, through favorable debate performances and constant exposure in the general-election campaign, gradually reassured the public that it had less to fear from the unknown than from the known. Upon closer examination, however, the Kennedy, Carter, and Clinton comparisons may not offer much of a precedent for Obama. After all, each of the three was a centrist who ran at his challenger from the right as well as the left... In contrast, as his Senate voting record and positions demonstrate, Obama is as liberal as they come, without any public record of straying from his party's left-leaning causes and constituencies. That means to win, he'll have to replicate the Reagan experience and basically lead an ideological revolution that will redraw the electoral map.

OBAMA'S RUMOR-FIGHTING PLAN
(Karen Tumulty, Time)

As long as there have been rumors in politics, there has been one widely accepted way for a candidate to deal with them. Basically, it's not to. Otherwise, according to prevailing wisdom, all a candidate achieves is to elevate the rumors to a legitimate story for the media to feast on. That don't-go-there approach was Barack Obama's plan for months until, on the candidate's first full day of campaigning as his party's presumed presidential nominee, a reporter from McClatchy Newspapers who was traveling aboard his plane asked him about a particularly toxic bit of hearsay that was zooming around the Internet about his wife Michelle. Obama lost his cool... That night, in a conference call, Obama told his top aides it was time for a more aggressive solution to the rumors that have been popping up on the Internet about him and his family for months. And so the Obama campaign has built what might best be described as a Web-based rumor clearinghouse, located at fightthesmears.com, in which it hopes all the shady stories about Obama's faith, his family and his rumored connections with controversial figures can go to die. Obama is enlisting his millions of supporters to help him hunt down and quash these stories, just as those supporters helped him turn his insurgent campaign into a history-making juggernaut. Says Obama adviser Anita Dunn: "We will not allow Michelle—or, for that matter, Barack—to be defined by rumors."

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MCCAIN'S TAX PLAN FAVORS WEALTHIEST, ANALYSIS SAYS
(Deborah Soloman, Wall Street Journal)

Both John McCain and Barack Obama promise to cut taxes for the majority of Americans. But an Obama administration would redistribute income toward lower- and middle-class households, while a McCain White House would steer the bulk of the benefits to the wealthiest families, according to a nonpartisan analysis of the still-evolving tax plans of the presidential candidates. Both plans risk causing more economic damage than improvement, according to the detailed study by the Washington-based Tax Policy Center. While some of Sen. McCain's tax cuts could lift economic activity, the "adverse effects of the resulting increased deficits may make the net effect of the plan economically harmful," the report says. Sen. Obama's plan similarly "would substantially increase the deficit" and could create "additional complexity" to the tax code by offering a range of targeted breaks.

MORE: Analysts Say Obama Offers Three Times the Tax Break for Middle Class (Nashua Telegraph)
The tax cut plan of Democratic nominee to be Barack Obama offers three times the break for middle class families than proposals of likely Republican nominee John McCain, according to analysts working for a left-leaning think tank. Families making between $37,595 and $66,354 of annual income with Obama would get an average tax cut of $1,042 per family while McCain’s tax cut for this group would be $319, the report states.

MCCAIN, OBAMA REACHING OUT TO FEMALE VOTERS
(Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post)

Sen. John McCain and his aides have gone out of their way to praise Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in recent days, and by the end of the week his most prominent female supporter, former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina, will embark on a female-focused speaking tour in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The presidential campaign is hoping to capitalize on the "security moms" who backed President Bush over Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in the 2004 election, while making inroads with other voters by questioning Sen. Barack Obama's experience on the economy and foreign affairs and trying to exploit unhappiness with his defeat of Clinton... But the Obama campaign and its allies are already courting Clinton's supporters with phone calls and behind-the-scenes negotiations on staffing and say they are confident that even Democratic women who have expressed anger about the outcome of the primaries would support Obama in the fall because of the Democratic Party's stance on domestic issues.

CHRISTIAN LEADERS MEET PRIVATELY WITH OBAMA
(Charles Babington, Associated Press)

Barack Obama discussed Darfur, the Iraq war, gay rights, abortion and other issues Tuesday with Christian leaders, including conservatives who have been criticized for praising the Democratic presidential candidate. Bishop T.D. Jakes, a prominent black clergyman who heads a Dallas megachurch, said Obama took questions, listened to participants and discussed his ``personal journey of faith.'' The discussion ``went absolutely everywhere,'' Jakes told The Associated Press, and ``just about every Christian stripe was represented in that room.'' Jakes, who does not endorse candidates and said he also hopes to meet with Republican presidential candidate John McCain, said some participants clearly have political differences with Obama. The senator's support for abortion rights and gay rights, among other issues, draws opposition from religious conservatives. Some conservatives have criticized Jakes for praising Obama... Mark DeMoss, a spokesman for the Rev. Franklin Graham, said Graham attended and asked Obama whether ``he thought Jesus was the way to God, or merely a way.'' DeMoss declined to discuss Obama's response. Graham, who succeeded his father as head of the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association, found the senator ``impressive'' and ``warm,'' DeMoss said.

MORE, via Politico's Jonathan Martin: Obama's intentionally-leaked private meeting with high-powered pastors strikes me as a very smart bit of politics. First, by coming right out of the primary and meeting with such high-profile figures as Franklin Graham -- scion of the preeminent family in American evangelism -- he makes plain that he'll be poaching on GOP turf. Further, by sitting down with a group of Christian pastors he helps kill the viral smear that he's not a Christian. 

 

SOUTHERN BAPTISTS REMAIN WARY OF MCCAIN
(Eric Gorski, Associated Press)

Four years ago, the Bush-Cheney re-election campaign hosted a reception for Southern Baptist pastors at a hotel across the street from their annual meeting. The country is electing a president again, the Baptists are meeting again and John McCain's campaign is nowhere to be seen at a gathering of 7,200 people, most of them staunch Republicans.  The absence has some Southern Baptists wondering whether the Arizona senator wants their vote. Others are more sympathetic to a campaign still gearing up, a candidate not known for talking about his faith, and reticence McCain might feel over his recent rejection of two endorsements by high-profile, evangelical pastors. In interviews, Southern Baptist leaders and the rank-and-file said they were warily waiting for McCain to inspire them while acknowledging that they will vote for him anyway now that Sen. Barack Obama, far too liberal for most Southern Baptists, has all but secured the Democratic nomination.

NOT ALL DEMOCRATS FALLING FOR OBAMA
(Ben Evans and Sam Hananel, Associated Press)

Nothing personal, Sen. Obama, but our re-election comes first. Barack Obama, for all his attention and primary successes, does not go over so well in a fair number of Democratic lawmakers' home districts. So it seems there is little chance that some will endorse him for president. Some are counting on Republican votes in their re-election bids. Some are newly minted and in rematches with 2006 opponents. Some may be wary of how their constituents will react to a black presidential candidate. Some, too, have made it a practice of distancing themselves from the national party, fearing the inevitable campaign ad that has their face morphing into Howard Dean, the party chairman, and Obama. Rep. Dan Boren, the only congressional Democrat in Oklahoma, calls Obama "the most liberal senator" in Congress and says he has no plans to make a public endorsement. "We're much more conservative" in eastern Oklahoma, Boren said. "I've got to reflect my district."

NEW GANG OF 14 WON'T BACK MCCAIN
(Kristen Coulter and Bob Cusak, The Hill)

At least 14 Republican members of Congress have refused to endorse or publicly support Sen. John McCain for president, and more than a dozen others declined to answer whether they back the Arizona senator. Many of the recalcitrant GOP members declined to detail their reasons for withholding support, but Rep. John Peterson (R-Pa.) expressed major concerns about McCain’s energy policies and Rep. Walter Jones (R-N.C.) cited the Iraq war. A handful of other Republicans on Capitol Hill made the distinction between “endorsing” and “supporting,” adding that while they have not endorsed, they do support McCain. In recent weeks, much of the discussion and debate about party unity has been on the Democrats’ side, amid their protracted presidential primary. Yet achieving harmony is a concern on both sides of the aisle this year.

JOHN MCCAIN: 'I CAN'T BE A REFEREE'
(Hillary Chabot, Boston Herald)

GOP presidential contender John McCain says he can’t control every attack ad aimed at Democrat Barack Obama and fully expects he’ll face a similar barrage, sounding the bell for a raucous general election brawl. “I can’t be a referee of every spot run on television,” McCain told the Herald in an exclusive interview. “I admire Sen. Obama and his accomplishments, but we all know there are groups who want to attack me.” The Arizona senator’s hands-off posture on attack ads by now-infamous tax-free and unaccountable political groups called 527s marks a softening of his view on the negative campaign tactic - and opens the door to a no-holds-barred five-month scramble.

THE LADY VANISHES
(Anne E. Kornblut, Washington Post)

After a year and a half directly in the spotlight, where has Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton gone? "They're currently taking some time off as a family," said one spokesperson. "Sorry Charlie, she's enjoying some well-deserved R & R," said another adviser, Philippe Reines. Clues suggest Clinton has been at home in Washington and Chappaqua, speaking by phone to superdelegates -- but not yet going back to her office in the Senate. There is nothing on her official calendar of appearances, and her husband does not begin hitting the public circuit again until next Tuesday, with a speech at Radio City Music Hall (the former president was supposed to give a graduation speech in California this Friday, but had to cancel due to a campus labor dispute that threatened to put him in the position of crossing picket lines). Most of Clinton's campaign aides have followed her example, lying low after a rough-and-tumble primary season that only ended last Saturday. Several remain officially on staff, wrapping up loo 

IN CAMPAIGNS, AS IN BASKETBALL, REFS GET WORKED
(James Rainey, Los Angeles Times)

With little defense or tough officiating to slow him from the opening tip, the freshman senator from Illinois runs the floor like a gazelle. Most journalists don't think Obama will make the finals, anyway, so why not riff a little about "hope" and "change"? A look at the box score early in the game (courtesy of the Project for Excellence in Journalism, which tracks stories at dozens of news outlets) confirms that nearly half of the stories about Obama in the first five months of 2007 are positive. McCain struggles behind, with 12% of his stories in the positive column. But after his turnaround win in January's New Hampshire primary, the narrative on McCain begins to shift. This might be deemed the second quarter, when the press writes more about his character and appeal as a general election candidate. After a barely discernible halftime, the general election campaign begins and McCain remains saddled with only one persistent negative story line -- that he has not been able to persuade his base that he is a "true" conservative. But that "negative" could turn into a "positive" in a contest that could be decided by moderate voters. The Washington-based Project for Excellence in Journalism backs up these conclusions not with think-tank bloviation but with actual research and analysis from nearly 50 outlets. 

VA. GOVERNOR COULD HELP FILL GAP FOR OBAMA
(Lisa Wangsness, Boston Globe)

He is the popular governor of a critical swing state. He has working-class roots and a Harvard degree, and strong support from both business and labor. He is a devout Catholic and speaks fluent Spanish, and was the first governor outside Illinois to endorse Barack Obama for president.Governor Tim Kaine is probably the least well known of the trio of rising Democratic stars from Virginia. The others - US Senator Jim Webb, the flame-throwing author and former Navy secretary, and former governor Mark Warner, the wealthy venture capitalist who briefly flirted with a presidential run - are regularly listed as vice presidential possibilities. But Kaine's biography and political resume fill many of the perceived gaps in Obama's profile, making him for some analysts a dark horse in veepstakes 2008.
 

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Member Comments

Posted By: votenic (June 12, 2008 at 9:56 AM)

I think all Obama needs to clinch this election is Hillary's supporters. How's he going to do that? Select her for VP. But if he doesn't choose her, will more of her supporters become anti-Barack for not?

http://www.votenic.com


 
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