In which Stumper examines
the Democratic nominee's possible--and not-so-possible--vice-presidential picks. (Previous McCain installments: Bobby Jindal; Mitt Romney; Charlie Crist. Previous Obama installments: Ted Strickland; Jim Webb; Wes Clark.)
Name: Hillary Clinton
Age: 60
Resume: New York Senator, Former First Lady and Democratic presidential candidate
Source of Speculation: The buzz about a potential dream ticket started way back in January--when the outcome of the Democratic nominating contest was still unclear--and Barack Obama admitted as early as March that Clinton "would be on anybody's shortlist" for the vice presidency. But the chatter kicked into overdrive on the final day of primary season, June 3, when several news outlets reported that after months of sidestepping the issue Clinton finally told her supporters--either in response to a question or, according Buffalo News, by "bringing it up herself"--that she was "open to"
signing on as Obama's veep.
Backstory: On March 5, the hosts of CBS's "The Early Show" asked Clinton whether she and Obama should be running mates. Her response: "That may be where this is headed." Later that day, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell hopped on the bandwagon, and Bill Clinton told reporters "she has always been open to it." But that didn't mean Hillary was ready to run as Obama's No. 2. "Of course, we have to decide who
is on the top of the ticket," she told CBS. "I think the people of Ohio very clearly said
that it should be me." With the math breaking in Obama's favor even then, Clinton's caveat prompted some commentators to wonder whether her VP rhetoric was, in fact, a "strategy for swaying fence-sitters"--and apparently Obama was one of them. "I have won
twice as many states as Senator
Clinton," he said in Columbus, Mississippi on March 10. "I have won more of the popular vote than Senator
Clinton. I
have more delegates than Senator Clinton. So I don't
know how someone in second place is offering the vice presidency to the
person in first place." At that, Clinton quickly backed off. "It's premature to talk about whoever might
be on whose ticket," she said the next day.
But as her chances of overtaking
Obama's delegate lead dwindled over the next two months, aides and associates began reviving talk of a "dream ticket"--now with Clinton as No. 2. None was more vocal than the former president. "He is definitely talking it up, making no secret it would be a
strong ticket for Barack Obama," George Stephanopoulos reported May 23 on "Good
Morning America." "He believes she's earned the offer of vice president." By the time Clinton signaled in New York on June 3 that she would start to
wind down her presidential campaign, behind the scenes, her next
political push--a bid for the vice presidency--was already up and
running. While supporters like Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Rep. Charlie Rangel pitched the idea publicly, Clinton was "le[aving] the door open" in private, according to a top strategist "Many
of her supporters believe if she's not nominated she must be on the
ticket," the strategist told Stumper. "They've been overt and aggressive about
that." By confirming and reinforcing the speculation, I wrote, Team Clinton was clearly trying to put public pressure on Obama to pick her as VP at the precise moment
that she has the most possible leverage--i.e., when many of her 17
million voters didn't want to see her go.
Obama, however, wasn't budging. In an interview with CNN on June 5, the Illinois senator told the chatterati (and perhaps Clinton) to "settle down," saying he's a "big believer in making decisions well, not making them fast and not responding to pressure." The Clinton camp got the hint. "She is
not seeking the vice presidency, and no one speaks for her but her," they said in a statement. "The choice here is Senator
Obama's and his alone." Still, it's clear that Clinton is at least under consideration. As first reported on this blog, when asked at a Florida synagogue on May 22 whether he'd put Clinton on his ticket, Obama responded with a reference to Abraham Lincoln's famous "Team of Rivals." "My goal is to have the best possible
government," he said. "And that means me winning. So, I'm very practical in my
thinking. I'm a practical guy."
Odds: Not likely. Clinton brings more pluses to the ticket than any other contender--but she also brings more minuses. For every possible pro, in fact, there seems to be an equal and opposite con. For example: proponents of the pairing say that Clinton would assist Obama electorally by solidifying his support among the 18 million voters--many of them older women, Latinos and working-class whites--who chose her over him in the Democratic primaries. That's undoubtedly true. But even though Clinton would shore up some of Obama's demographic soft spots, she could do him irreparable damage elsewhere.
Take those blue-collar voters. As the New Republic's Noam Scheiber has written, "working-class whites who vote in Democratic primaries are often very different
from the working-class whites who don't." That is, while the first group seems to dislike Obama, the second group--i.e., Republicans and independents--seems to dislike Hillary. (Overall, 67 percent of Republicans have very unfavorable views of Clinton, 24
percentage points more than feel that way about Obama; among independents, Clinton's 32 percent negative rating among Independents is 10 points worse than Obama's.) The result: you "risk alienating two groups of working-class whites by
putting her on the ticket." The math is grim. In the polls, McCain leads both Obama and Clinton among Caucasians without college degrees by a similar 10-12 point margin--which only goes to show that if "Hillary wins certain
working-class whites whom Obama would lose to McCain, then... Obama
must be winning certain working-class whites that Hillary would lose to
McCain." In the end, it's unclear whether Clinton could help Obama win back the former. But she'd almost certainly hurt him with the latter.
Similarly, there's no way of knowing whether the people who will vote for Obama just because Clinton's on the ticket will outweigh those who will vote against him for the same reason. But with her disapproval ratings hovering around 50 percent, there isn't much room for error. "“Conservatives ‘distrust’ McCain, but they ‘hate’ Clinton," the National Journal's John Mercurio has written. "And hate is
a far stronger motivator. It’s a passion that would propel them to turn
out for McCain on Election Day in a way no terrorist attack, Swift Boat
ad or gay-marriage amendment ever could."
We can apply this same pro-con pattern pretty much across the board. With substantial experience inside the White House and on Capitol Hill, Clinton is probably best prepared of all the potential veeps to steer Obama through swamps of D.C.; she'd serve as his brass-balls prime minister, "tending to Congress and health care reform and trade agreements while
Obama travels and inspires and thinks." And what better way to reinforce his message of bridging old divides, seeking consensus and getting things done than by uniting with an old rival? Then again, the inevitable distractions--a meddling, scandal-plagued Bill, Hillary's own ambitions and a media hungry for any sign of conflict--would make it difficult for the former rivals to work together effectively. And while choosing Clinton might symbolize unity, in practice the pick would completely undermine Obama's promise to "change" the long legacy of partisan warfare and endless
score-settling in Washington. Plus it would look weak.
Either way, don't expect a decision until late July--at least. Right now, the biggest road block is probably personal: after a bruising primary battle (with a messy conclusion), there's little sign of trust, chemistry or compatibility between the two politicians. For Obama--as for any president--those things are important. That's why the senator will spend the summer working to heal old wounds and unite the Democratic Party. If successful, he won't need to call on Clinton. It's only if Obama can't pick up the pieces that this particular dream--or nightmare--has any chance of coming true.
