A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.
IN FLAG CITY, FALSE OBAMA RUMORS ARE FLYING
(Eli Saslow, Washington Post)
On the television in his living room, Peterman has watched enough news
and campaign advertisements to hear the truth: Sen. Barack Obama,
born in Hawaii, is a Christian family man with a track record of public
service. But on the Internet, in his grocery store, at his neighbor's
house, at his son's auto shop, Peterman has also absorbed another
version of the Democratic candidate's background, one that is entirely
false: Barack Obama, born in Africa, is a possibly gay Muslim racist
who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance... Here in Findlay, a
Rust Belt town of 40,000, false rumors about Obama
have built enough word-of-mouth credibility to harden into an
alternative biography. Born on the Internet, the rumors now meander
freely across the flatlands of northwest Ohio -- through bars and
baseball fields, retirement homes and restaurants... Does he choose to
trust a TV commercial in which Obama talks about his
"love of country"? Or his neighbor of 40 years, Don LeMaster, a Navy
veteran who heard from a friend in Toledo that Obama refuses to wear an
American-flag pin? Does he trust a local newspaper article that details
Obama's
Christian faith? Or his friend Leroy Pollard, a devoted family man so
convinced Obama is a radical Muslim that he threatened to stop talking
to his daughter when he heard she might vote for him?
'IT'S OVER, LADY'
(Maureen Dowd, New York Times)
Unity was spared the banality of unanimity... When it was Obama’s turn to speak, Carmella announced loudly, “I
wish I had ear plugs.” Then, as Obama tried to ingratiate himself with
the Hillary partisans in the crowd by saying that because of the New
York senator, his daughters “can take for granted that women can do
anything that the boys can do and do it better and do it in heels,”
Carmella put her fingers in her ears. As Obama tried to curry
favor with Hillary, looking over at her sensible, sturdy shoes and
marveling, “I still don’t know how she does it in heels,” Carmella tore
up a tissue and stuffed it in her ears. When Obama pandered
with a line about how he wouldn’t “perpetuate a system in which women
are paid less for the same work as men,” she put her hands over her
tissue-stuffed ears. “Maybe she’d like what she heard if she listened,” sighed Axelrod.
OBAMA'S IRAQ PROBLEM
(George Packer, New Yorker)
Obama, whatever the idealistic yearnings of his admirers, has turned
out to be a cold-eyed, shrewd politician. The same pragmatism that
prompted him last month to forgo public financing of his campaign will
surely lead him, if he becomes President, to recalibrate his stance on
Iraq. He doubtless realizes that his original plan, if implemented now,
could revive the badly wounded Al Qaeda in Iraq, reënergize the Sunni
insurgency, embolden Moqtada al-Sadr to recoup his militia’s recent
losses to the Iraqi Army, and return the central government to a state
of collapse. The question is whether Obama will publicly change course
before November. So far, he has offered nothing more concrete than
this: “We must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless
getting in.”
THE OBAMA AGENDA
(Paul Krugman, New York Times)
We could — and still might — do a lot worse than a
rerun of the Clinton years. But Mr. Obama’s most fervent supporters
expect much more. Progressive activists, in particular,
overwhelmingly supported Mr. Obama during the Democratic primary even
though his policy positions, particularly on health care, were often to
the right of his rivals’. In effect, they convinced themselves that he
was a transformational figure behind a centrist facade. They may have had it backward. Mr.
Obama looks even more centrist now than he did before wrapping up the
nomination... The candidate’s defenders
argue that he’s just being pragmatic — that he needs to do whatever it
takes to win, and win big, so that he has the power to effect major
change. But critics argue that by engaging in the same “triangulation
and poll-driven politics” he denounced during the primary, Mr. Obama
actually hurts his election prospects, because voters prefer candidates
who take firm stands. In any case, what about after the
election? The Reagan-Clinton comparison suggests that a candidate who
runs on a clear agenda is more likely to achieve fundamental change
than a candidate who runs on the promise of change but isn’t too clear
about what that change would involve.
PRESIDENTIAL IMPOTENCE
(Daniel Gross, Slate)
Today, while the president of the United States may be the most powerful
person in the world, "his influence on the short-term macro-economy is
generally overestimated by voters," says Thomas E. Mann, senior fellow
at the Brookings Institution. Partisans might think the economy got off
the mat the minute Ronald Reagan was inaugurated in 1981 or when Bill
Clinton took the oath in January 1993. But the factors that influence
the business cycle are so myriad, powerful, and unpredictable that not
even an executive as muscular as California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger
could bend them to his will. The megatrends that made the 1990s a long
summer of economic love—the end of the cold war, the deflationary
influence of an emerging China, the Internet—would have happened with
or without Rubinomics.
And most of the factors now making life miserable—commodity inflation,
a housing bubble and a weak dollar engineered by the Federal Reserve's
promiscuous policies, the demand-driven surge in oil—would likely have
materialized had John Kerry won in 2004 (sorry, MoveOn.org).
SOME ON LEFT TARGET MCCAIN'S WAR RECORD
(Ben Smith, Politico)
The
highest voltage third rail of this presidential campaign may not be
race, sex, or age, but Senator John McCain's military service. McCain's
campaign Sunday issued a pair of outraged statements after
retired general and Barack Obama supporter Wesley Clark said he didn't
think that McCain’s service as a fighter pilot and prisoner of war was
relevant to running the country. Obama has consistently praised
McCain's service, and called him "a genuine American hero." But
farther to the left—and among some of McCain's conservative enemies
as well—harsher attacks are circulating. Critics have accused McCain of
war crimes for bombing targets in Hanoi in the 1960s. Sunday, a widely
read liberal blog accused McCain of "disloyalty" during his captivity
in Vietnam for his coerced participation in propaganda films and
interviews after he’d been tortured.
WESTERN STATES MAY SWING
(Karen Crummy, Politico)
One-third of Colorado registered voters are not affiliated with a
political party. In New Mexico, Democrats outnumber Republicans by
nearly 200,000, yet the state routinely votes for the GOP presidential
candidate. Montana voters don’t even register with a party. Brimming
with individualistic, self-reliant, libertarian-leaning
voters, the Rocky Mountain West will play a pivotal role in a year when
independent voters are expected to make or break John McCain’s and
Barack Obama’s presidential bids. Voters here in recent elections have
backed individual candidates
regardless of political affiliation and have responded to messages
emphasizing economic populism, fiscal discipline and the balance
between individual rights and governmental protections. Already, McCain
is emphasizing his 22 years as a Western senator
sensitive to the region’s issues and personality, and touting his
record of standing up to both political parties. Obama is portraying
himself as a reformer, someone who won’t engage in Washington-style
politics and is committed to taking the country in a better
direction... The stakes couldn’t be higher. If just Colorado, Nevada
and New Mexico
had cast their electoral votes for John F. Kerry in 2004, he’d be
president now.
OBAMA CAMP THINKS DEMOCRATS CAN RISE IN THE SOUTH
(Robin Toner, New York Times)
As they look to the fall election, Democrats face a strategic decision
that has bedeviled their party for 40 years: How hard should they fight
in the South?
And how does having Senator Barack Obama at the top of the ticket
affect that calculation? Officials
in Mr. Obama’s campaign say they are bullish on the South, and they
have signaled their aggressiveness with early campaign appearances in
North Carolina and Virginia, major voter registration drives in the
region, and television advertising in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina
and Virginia. Steve Hildebrand, the deputy campaign manager for Mr.
Obama, said he saw “tremendous potential” in several Southern states...
Mr. Obama’s Southern strategy relies on significantly increasing
black registration and turnout, as he did in the primary season. Mr.
Hildebrand said that by some estimates there are 600,000 unregistered
black voters in Georgia alone. The higher the black share of the vote,
the lower the requirement for garnering white votes. But the Obama camp
argues that it can increase its share of the white vote as well by
focusing on younger, more progressive whites.
OBAMA AND MCCAIN SEARCH FOR RUNNING MATES
(Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times)
Never in modern memory have so many eminent people been mentioned
for a
job that has been compared -- unfavorably -- to a bucket of warm spit.
To believe the talk in Washington, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is
considering more than two dozen candidates as potential vice
presidential nominees, including 13 senators or former senators, 11
governors or former governors, two retired generals and former Vice
President Al Gore. For Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the list of
potential running mates is
almost as long: eight current or former senators, 10 current or former
governors, a couple of high-technology chief executives -- and one of
the same retired generals Obama likes... this is how the winnowing is
likely to proceed: McCain is tempted to choose his friend Sen. Joe
Lieberman of
Connecticut... But he's more likely to go with Minnesota
Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney or Sen. John
Thune of South Dakota, actual Republicans, who would be more palatable
to the party's conservative core. Obama is reported to be considering
Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia and
former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia, two Democrats with formidable national
security credentials, but he's more likely to settle on Sen. Joseph R.
Biden Jr. of Delaware or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana. Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton of New York, who battled Obama for the
nomination, is not likely to be chosen, Democratic strategists have
concluded.
TRAVELING OVERSEAS TO WIN VOTES AT HOME
(John Harwood, New York Times)
Colombia hardly constitutes a general election battleground. Neither
does France nor Jordan. But Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are
heading to those countries and others because votes can be won there.
The votes are the reward that Americans confer for gravitas — the
stature and experience that reassures them their would-be president can
safeguard them from unforeseen events. What helps the candidates in
this effort are the images of them consulting with foreign leaders and
giving speeches on the international stage, as well as the knowledge
they glean during these travels... Mr. McCain aims to reinforce that
edge with his trip this week to
Colombia and Mexico. Mr. Obama hopes to narrow that advantage with his
coming travel to Britain, France, Germany, Israel and Jordan. (Details
of his plans to visit Afghanistan and Iraq have not been disclosed, for
security reasons.) Some Democrats argue that he needn’t do much, since
the value of Mr.
McCain’s experience remains limited at a time voters are so unhappy.
“It’s a card they can play, but it can be trumped by the ‘change’
card,” said James Carville, the Democratic strategist behind Mr.
Clinton’s victory in 1992. The
biggest potential pitfall for Mr. Obama is an obvious mistake in
imagery or rhetoric. Mr. McCain, 71, faced unflattering coverage when
he mischaracterized Iran as supporting Sunni Muslim insurgents in Iraq.
The 46-year-old Mr. Obama would likely pay a higher and more enduring
price for a comparable flub.
HEARTS, NOT MINDS
(Robert G. Kaiser, Washington Post)
What if the 2008 presidential election were decided by voters acting
not on their political judgments or analyses of the candidates, but on
their emotions? In the view of some experts, this is a trick question
-- of course the election will be decided emotionally. Elections always
are... Polls, the lifeblood of American politics, can also tell us what people
think -- which candidate they favor, how much they approve of a
president, whether they believe the war in Iraq was worth fighting. But
polls are science, exploiting the mathematical laws of random samples
to explain what "everyone" thinks by asking the right 1,200 or so
Americans the same questions. Focus groups, by contrast, are art. Their
success depends on the skills of the person leading the discussion. A
talented focus-grouper tries to expose the emotional juice that can
both explain and alter poll results.