A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.
LOTS OF FIREWORKS, LITTLE MEAT
(James Rainey, Los Angeles Times)
My colleagues at Yahoo News and the Associated Press bring you this
blockbuster in time for the holiday weekend: Americans would rather
have Barack Obama than John McCain at their summer cookout. Yes, an online sample of 1,759 adults crowned Obama the weenie-roast
king, 52% to 45%. With all the drivel fouling the campaign trail of
late, I'm surprised the preferred barbecue guest wasn't "Neither." They don't have do-overs in the campaign season. But if they did, this is a week that would merit one. There was no real news -- just barely news and almost news. The
mainstream media avoided some of it. But the rest found a place, partly
because the Internet always has room, partly because the candidates are
always ready to fill it.
IS BARACK A TYPICAL POL?
(Noam Scheiber, New Republic)
McCain abruptly made the contrast between his honor and Obama's
cynicism the central theme of his campaign. "For John McCain, country
first is how he has lived his life," read a "memo"
released by strategist Steve Schmidt last Thursday. "We have seen
Barack Obama forced to choose between principle and the interests of
himself and his party. He has always chosen the latter."... To which the proper
response for an Obama supporter should be: Right on! John McCain may
win the contest over "who is willing to put principle above personal
ambition and self-interest," as Rove wrote in last Thursday's Wall Street Journal. But that contest will have very little to do with who wins this fall's election. The easiest way
to see this is to consider one of the most persistent poll results of
the campaign so far: The percentage of voters who identify themselves
as Democrats is eight to 15 points higher than the percentage who identify as Republicans. Even if the GOP were to somehow convince Americans that Obama was typical, they would have to paint McCain as phenomenally atypical to overcome this disadvantage.
THE FLIP-FLOP FALLACY
(Jonathan Chait, New Republic)
I think McCain's strategy is a little more potent than Noam gives it credit for. First, bad press is bad press. Noam argues that
McCain is hitting Obama with the wrong line of attack, but the bottom
line is that McCain's painting of Obama as a flip-flopper is producing
a lot of skeptical coverage of Obama. Maybe it's not the exact kind of
skeptical coverage that would be most damaging to Obama. But skeptical
coverage of Obama of any sort is preferable for McCain to positive or
neutral coverage of Obama. If people are reading or watching critical
reports about Obama, they're going to think less of him. Second,
I think a "flip-flopper" image is extremely damaging no matter what the
general circumstances. A politician's perceived trustworthiness is the
basic platform for his entire message. If the voters don't trust him,
then they tend to discount everything he says about any topic at all.
Noam says the more damaging accusation against Obama is that he's not
"one of us." I agree. But if voters don't trust him, then they won't
believe him when he explains that he's a Christian who really does love
America. So the "flip-flopper" label, if it sinks in, can leech into
other issues.
THE CANDIDATES AS HIGH-ROLLERS
(Michael Scherer and Michael Weisskopf, Time)
The casino craps player is a social animal, a thrill seeker who wants
not just to win but to win with a crowd. Unlike cards or a roulette
wheel, well-thrown dice reward most everyone on the rail, yielding a
collective yawp that drowns out the slots. It is a game for showmen,
Hollywood stars and basketball legends with girls on their arms. It is
also a favorite pastime of the presumptive Republican nominee for
President, John McCain. The backroom poker player, on the other hand, is more cautious and
self-absorbed. Card games may be social, but they are played in
solitude. No need for drama. The quiet card counter is king, and only a
novice banks on luck. In this game, a good bluff trumps blind faith,
and the studied observer beats the showman. So it is fitting that the
presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama, raked in so many pots in
his late-night games with political friends. For centuries, the nation's political leaders have loved their games of
chance... But even among this crowd, McCain
and Obama are distinctive. For both men, games of chance have been not
just a hobby but also a fundamental feature in their development as
people and politicians. For Obama, weekly poker games with lobbyists
and fellow state senators helped cement his position as a rising star
in Illinois politics. For McCain, jaunts to the craps table helped
burnish his image as a political hot dog who relished the thrill of a
good fight, even if the risk of failure was high.
OBAMA, MCCAIN VIEW MOUNTAIN STATES AS PIVOTAL
(Amy Chozick and Elizabeth Holmes, Wall Street Journal)
Speaking near the foot of the Rocky Mountains, Democratic
presidential contender Barack Obama pledged to create new incentives to
motivate Americans to serve their country. His campaign has
laid out a more-pressing proposal: to defeat John McCain in the
Republican-leaning Mountain states. Although these states account for a
small portion of electoral votes, they could make the difference in a
tight race. Both presidential hopefuls have made the West a
focus of their general-election strategies, with a particular emphasis
on Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, states with independent-minded
voters who have mostly mostly gone Republican in recent elections.
A DOSE OF DISCIPLINE FOR MCCAIN'S CAMPAIGN
(Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin, Politico)
The Sergeant has been promoted. Whenever Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)
needed an answer to a political question during long days on buses and
planes with reporters during the GOP primary, he would turn to a
linebacker of a campaign adviser. “Sergeant Schmidt?” McCain would ask with an impish grin, turning to the cueball-headed, barrel-chested Steve Schmidt for input. Often, Schmidt, his gaze set on his BlackBerry and his thumb
relentlessly working its trackball, would barely look up when grunting
his answer. In turn, McCain would threaten his serious, unsmiling and on-message senior adviser with demotion to corporal. Now, though, a year to the day after he laid off dozens of staffers in
the campaign’s first major shakeup, McCain has again turned to his
favorite NCO, giving Schmidt a battlefield promotion to commanding
general at a moment when his campaign needed another dose of discipline... During a meeting at the Bush reelection campaign, senior adviser Karl
Rove gave him the nickname “Bullet” because of his bald head and
because of his seemingly lethal impact. But despite his intimidating visage, Schmidt has inspired a legion of
20- and 30-something loyalists who’ve learned dawn-to-midnight,
smashmouth politics at his knee.
OBAMA PICKS UP FUNDRAISING PACE
(Michael Luo and Christopher Drew, New York Times)
In the wake of Senator Barack Obama’s
decision last month to bypass public financing for the general
election, his campaign is embarking on a spree of pricey fund-raising
events across the country. As Mr. Obama shattered fund-raising records over the last year and a
half and collected nearly $300 million, much of the attention has been
on his army of small contributors over the Internet. He cited that
broad base of small-dollar donors in justifying his decision to reverse
his pledge to take part in the public financing system if his opponent
did as well. But Mr. Obama’s stepped-up schedule of big-money
fund-raisers — the campaign has more than a dozen events planned over
the next two weeks — showcases a formidable high-dollar donor network
that is gaining more heft with an influx of former supporters of
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.
MORE: Can Barack Buy the Presidency? (Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal)
Mr. Obama has used his money advantage to launch the
air war. Starting June 20, Mr. Obama spent $4.3 million for 10 days of
a televised, biographical ad covering 18 states. Mr. McCain countered
on Monday with roughly $2.1 million for a week of ads in 11 states. Mr.
Obama has now volleyed back, expanding his buy to 21 states for two
additional weeks at a cost of $15 million – half for his original bio
ad and half for a new ad on welfare reform. But early television may not be as smart as it
appears. Is it wise for Mr. Obama to spend almost as much on ads in
three weeks in July as he raised in May? His fund raising peaked in
February. June's fund-raising numbers, due in mid-July, will show
whether his current pace of spending can be sustained. And TV becomes
less effective in a general election, since so much free media
attention is focused on the presidential candidates, whose actions have
a larger impact than ads... Mr. Obama may be overreaching by running ads in North Carolina,
Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska, Montana, Alaska and North
Dakota – states Republicans won by comfortable margins in recent years.
It would require a shift of between one-sixth and over one-quarter of
the vote to win any of them. Shifts that large rarely happen.
MCCAIN WORKS THE ROOM, ONE TOWN HALL AT A TIME
(Bob Drogin, Los Angeles Times)
More than any major-party candidate in modern times, McCain is relying
on low-key question-and-answer sessions, rather than boisterous rallies
and set speeches, as the linchpin of his campaign."It's never
been done before, so no one knows if it will work," said Todd Harris, a
Republican strategist who served as spokesman for McCain's unsuccessful
2000 presidential bid. "But we've never had a candidate like John
McCain." Aides
and supporters say the freewheeling sessions showcase the Arizona
senator as a straight-talking candidate who is an expert on policy
issues and ready to be president. It also lets him display a sense of
humor that, they admit, is more appealing than his formal speeches,
which can sound stilted. Even some GOP leaders have panned his delivery. Working the room like a lounge act, McCain clearly enjoys the banter
and the intellectual challenge of mixing it up with voters. Although
many supporters lob softballs, McCain also engages with critics and
cranks in the crowd... That worries some supporters. They say McCain's unstructured sessions
often overshadow efforts to communicate a single, clear message each
day. Worse, they fear, the routine events now only produce national
news when he makes an error. Indeed, McCain has made his worst gaffes
during town hall meetings.
OBAMA DRAWS ON LESSONS FROM CHICAGO STREETS TO PROPEL CAMPAIGN
(Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, Bloomberg News)
When Barack Obama launched his
presidential campaign, he called his three years as a community
organizer in Chicago in the 1980s ``the best education I ever
had.'' He's putting those lessons to good use in his drive for
the White House, say many of those who worked with him then. The same tactics Obama honed in mobilizing people to
agitate for neighborhood improvements he's now using to draw
millions of volunteers and voters to his campaign. His
experiences with a church-based group also helped shape his
views on individual responsibility and the role of government,
according to dozens of people who knew him 20 years ago. "The idea he expresses now, that people are linked by a
common purpose'' is an effort to transfer those lessons `"from a
neighborhood to a nation,'' says Mike Kruglik, 66, who trained
Obama and worked with him from 1985 to 1988. Obama, 46, an Illinois senator and the presumed Democratic
presidential nominee, often cites his days organizing people in
the shadow of shuttered steel mills as evidence he understands
grassroots activism and to underline his distrust of
bureaucracies. The setting for his political education was Chicago's South
Side, a sprawling expanse of predominantly black and
economically depressed communities.