To veep or not to veep? That is the question. During the pause between the primaries and the conventions, the chattering classes always get confused. (Or more confused, as the case may be.) One moment, every “strategist” with access to makeup and MSNBC is claiming that the black Evangelical comptroller of Clark County, Ohio would undoubtedly put the Republican ticket over the top. The next they’re citing facts and figures meant to prove that the pick, in the famous words of FDR No. 2 John Nance Garner, isn’t “worth a warm bucket of piss.” They’re like dieters complaining about calories as they inhale a Cinnabon. With extra frosting.
They should quit whining. Simply put, this year’s veepstakes is the most significant ever. Yes, the old caveats still apply. No one votes for second fiddle. No veep pick since LBJ has single-handedly swung his home state. In fact, no sidekick has ever triggered a bump of more than two percent in the national vote, and none has ever--sorry, Dick Cheney--boosted his boss to victory. But Barack Obama and John McCain are not your typical nominees.
At 72, McCain would be the oldest guy ever inaugurated for a first term--and nothing increases the importance of an understudy like an aging leading man. McCain admits as much. “I’m aware of enhanced importance of this issue given my age,” he’s said. Obama, meanwhile, would be one of the two or three least seasoned presidents in U.S. history. (Polls show that only half of Americans consider him experienced enough to lead.) Again, this makes a “presidential” partner politically essential. Citing Cheney and Al Gore as examples, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe revealed last week that Obama will choose someone “qualified to be president… who’ll be a partner in governing”--and not a geographical pander. In the end, neither McCain nor Obama can afford the “frosting” of, say, a Dan “Potatoe” Quayle. And if they’re taking this seriously, so should we. So speculate away.
An historical crib sheet on some top choices:
THE MCCAIN ARCHETYPES
1. The Jack Kemp: Mitt Romney
Like Kemp, Bob Dole's '96 pick, Romney is a former foe who would add economic-policy heft to the ticket.
2. The Spiro Agnew: Tim Pawlenty
Like Maryland's Agnew, the Minn. governor appeals to the center and right, and could help in a key region.
3. The Geraldine Ferraro: Sarah Palin
Ferraro helped Walter Mondale make history in '84; reformist, salt-of-the earth Alaska Governor Palin could counterprogram Obama.
4. The Dan Quayle: Bobby Jindal
Chosen for his youth, 41's veep was too lightweight; hot La. Governor Jindal, 37, may be simply too young.
5. The Joe Lieberman: Joe Lieberman
Would do for Mac what he did for Gore in '00--boost moderate cred, Jewish support, ticket diversity.
THE OBAMA ARCHETYPES
1. The Al Gore: Kathleen Sebelius
Like Gore, the Kans. governor wouldn't balance the ticket or offer geographical help, but she would reinforce its core theme of "change through unity."
2. The Lyndon B. Johnson: Hillary Clinton
Kennedy accepted his rival out of electoral necessity. That's the only reason BHO would take HRC.
3. The Lloyd Bentsen: Sam Nunn
Detached, youngish and ethnic, Dukakis tapped an older, white Southern senator. Obama could follow.
4. The John Edwards: Tim Kaine
Kerry's '04 pick was a fresh-faced, white Southerner with blue-collar appeal. The Virginia governor fits the bill.
5. The Dick Cheney: Tom Daschle
Like Cheney, Daschle is a campaign insider and D.C. pro who wouldn't add electoral votes but could help steer his green boss through the swamp.
