Here's my NEWSWEEK colleague Jonathan Alter on why former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn is Barack Obama's best bet for veep. Before you read, one other factor to consider: in the latest Insider Advantage poll of the Peach State, John McCain leads Obama by a mere two percent--and 51 percent of Georgians say they'd be more likely to vote for the Democratic with Nunn on the ticket. As we've said before, Obama + Nunn + Bob Barr could actually put Georgia in play. Anyway, back to Jon:
After more than two decades on the quadrennial short-list, the idea
of former Georgia senator Sam Nunn as vice president has become a
cliché. And knocking him down is easy. You know the rap. He's too old
(69), too rusty politically (out of the Senate since 1996) and too
conservative (he helped design the don't-ask-don't-tell policy on gays
in the military in the early 1990s). Plus, he's dull.
But
Nunn may be the best pick for Barack Obama in a year when the
presumptive Democratic nominee has no obvious choices. If some
potential candidate could immediately offer strength to Obama on the
economy, he should pick him or her. But no one fits that bill, which
leaves the field open to a foreign policy heavyweight who could help
compensate for the slim resume of a freshman senator. The notion that
Obama would be better off pretending this weakness didn't exist—that he
should double down on change with a young running mate—ignores the
readiness bar Obama still needs to clear...
The
main reason Nunn has a chance is that Obama has told his advisers that
he won't choose anyone who lacks the stature to be perceived
immediately as a plausible president. This makes any short list much
shorter. Kathleen Sebelius and Ted Strickland, for instance, are good
governors but they just aren't going to make that cut; Nunn's foreign
policy experience, unquestioned intelligence, and big thinking assure
that he does.
In Nunn's case, out of the Senate doesn't
mean out of the action. His record in the 12 years since he left is
impressive. Nunn and Sen. Richard Lugar have, with little public
attention, managed to reduce the greatest security threat in the
world—loose nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union. The Nunn-Lugar
initiative has been a huge success and a Nobel Prize is a distinct
possibility...
While nuclear non-proliferation is unlikely to be a first tier
campaign issue, the public education that would accompany the selection
of Nunn would reflect positively on Obama. A campaign narrative focused
on the nuclear dangers of Iran and Pakistan, where both Democrats are
well-informed, would lend the Democratic ticket some gravitas. And
Nunn's opposition to the war in Iraq from the outset would help make
McCain's pro-war position seem like the one out of the mainstream.
The
conventional view is that choosing someone perceived as experienced on
foreign policy would make Obama look insecure, as if he wasn't
confident of his own strengths on these issues. The other, more
persuasive view is that in such a big Democratic year there's only one
way Obama loses—the way Charlie Black suggested, with a terrorist
attack on American soil. Should that happen, a Democratic ticket
without someone like Nunn would be highly vulnerable.
Selecting
Nunn would be a defensive move but not a weak one. That's because the
choice would have its own doubling down effect, reinforcing Obama's
support for ending the war in the context of greater support for
veterans and the military, and for shifting the Pentagon's emphasis in
the Middle East from Iraq to Afghanistan...
The biggest stumbling block in selecting Nunn is his support in 1993
for a Pentagon study that backed a don't-ask-don't-tell policy for gays
in the military. Nunn's position now is a mixture of new rhetoric ("I'm
grateful to the thousands of gays and lesbians serving today") and a
willingness to "review the policy" with an eye toward "eventually"
changing it.
This won't be nearly enough for the gay
and lesbian community and other liberals, for whom a controversial
position of 15 years ago is still fresh. But, contrary to what many
assume, this constituency does not have a veto over Obama's choice. And
after pleasing gay rights groups by expressing his opposition to a
California ballot initiative that would change the state constitution
to bar gay marriage, Obama has some room to maneuver.
The
blunt political truth is that Nunn's history on this issue might
actually help the Democratic ticket in states like Ohio and
Pennsylvania. While gays would protest loudly if Nunn is the nominee,
his selection would show Obama's independent streak in standing up to a
powerful Democratic interest group.
On the stump, Nunn
wouldn't be exciting, but he doesn't have to be. The Democrats have
plenty of excitement at the top of the ticket. In fact, it's exactly
Nunn's dull and staid persona that could help voters leery of too much
change overcome their misgivings about Obama. He's white, Southern and
comfortable.
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