As a N.J. native, I should know. In every presidential election since the dawn of history--or at least 1996--it's been the same. First, a Republican candidate announces that he will poach the Garden State from his Democratic rival. Next, a few polls show us Jerseyans flirting with independence. Then on Election Day the GOP gets clobbered. Take 2000, for example. When a string of September surveys put John Kerry ahead by a mere two or three points--SurveyUSA even gave George W. Bush the lead--observers wondered whether the Massachusetts senator would actually lose a state that his predecessor, Al Gore, had won by 16 points. He ended up beating Bush by seven. Fact is, New Jersey's distinctive demographic blend of downscale urban minorities and wealthy white suburbanites tilts the vote in a Democratic direction from the outset, and the prohibitive price of advertising in the New York and Philadelphia media markets usually prevents the GOP from mounting much of an insurgency.

Which is why I initially dismissed New Jersey's new Rasmussen poll--out yesterday, it shows Republican torchbearer John McCain closing the gap with Democratic rival Barack Obama to a mere three points, down from nine a month ago--as the latest in an endless list of meaningless "It Could be Close!" surveys. Sure, McCain has followed his forebears in making all the usual noises about a possible pickup, claiming the state is "winnable" and he's "within striking distance" during a June townhall in Pemberton. He's even one-upped earlier Republicans, visiting four times since February and becoming the first GOPer since 1992 to open a regional headquarters in the state. The idea, according to State Senator and N.J. Campaign Chairman Bill Baroni, is that McCain's unique biography and brand give him a shot at swinging the blue-collar Reagan Democrats and military veterans who propelled the Gipper to Garden State victories in 1980 and 1984. "John McCain is the kind of candidate that New Jersey has always taken to," Baroni recently told the Associated Press. "Independent, a maverick." Still,  I was skeptical. According to RealClear Politics, Obama leads in N.J. by an overall average of 8.3 points. In other words, we'd heard this fairy tale before.

Then an item in Mike Allen's Politico Playbook caught my eye. This morning, the McCain campaign announced that it had hired Bill Stepien, who ran the RNC's last-minute GOTV efforts in 2006, to serve under new Political Director Mike DuHaime as head of field operations--meaning that McCain now has two of the Garden State's most effective Republican operatives running his Election Day turnout machine. (DuHaime is from Bloomingdale, Stepien is from Long Valley and both attended Rutgers.) Now, the N.J. GOP isn't a particularly robust organization; a Republican hasn't won statewide office, for example, since 1997. But both DuHaime and Stepien have proven that they can get surprising results in local races. DuHaime managed Anthony Bucco's successful 1997 State Senate run--no other Republican beat an incumbent Democratic state senator between 1991 and 2007--and three years later nearly propelled Bob Franks to a U.S. Senate victory over Jon Corzine, who outspent him 12 to one. Meanwhile, Stepien, DuHaime's protege, headed up Baroni's 2003 State Assembly bid. The win made him the only Republican to upset a Democratic incumbent that year.

Will this against-the-odds expertise be enough to put McCain over the top in New Jersey? I doubt it. But DuHaime's and Stepien's local connections and ground-level knowledge--if utilized--could certainly help. Combined with McCain's crossover appeal, in fact, they may actually (heart be still) make the Garden State worth watching this time around.

For once.