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Posted Thursday, July 17, 2008 7:48 AM

The Filter: July 17, 2008

Andrew Romano

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

WHAT KIND OF LEADER WOULD MCCAIN OR OBAMA BE?
(David Gergen and Andy Zelleke, Christian Science Monitor)

No president in modern times has faced a more daunting agenda than awaits the man who wins in November; arguably, we have to go all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt in March 1933 to find a parallel. From Day One, the incoming president will face ongoing dangers to the American economy: the credit crisis, an implosion in housing, and rising prices for fuel and food. Whatever glittering promises are made on the campaign trail, the fact is that the new president won't have any money to pay for them – not with federal deficits heading skyward. In Year two, the Bush tax cuts will expire. That means President Obama or McCain and Congress must agree on a new tax regime – always a donnybrook. In Year three, the first wave of baby boomers will hit 65, demanding an overhaul of Social Security and Medicare, which face huge financial shortfalls. In Year four, the Kyoto agreement on climate change expires. Most nations ratified the protocol but the US never did. Its end underscores the need for a comprehensive plan to secure our energy supplies while also reducing our huge carbon emissions. And this is just the beginning here at home. The challenges overseas appear even more immense and complex.

IN IRAQ, MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT OBAMA AND HIS TROOP PROPOSAL
(Sabrina Tavernise and Richard A. Oppel, Jr., New York Times)

A tough Iraqi general, a former special operations officer with a baritone voice and a barrel chest, melted into smiles when asked about Senator Barack Obama. “Everyone in Iraq likes him,” said the general, Nassir al-Hiti. “I like him. He’s young. Very active. We would be very happy if he was elected president.” But mention Mr. Obama’s plan for withdrawing American soldiers, and the general stiffens. “Very difficult,” he said, shaking his head. “Any army would love to work without any help, but let me be honest: for now, we don’t have that ability.” Thus in a few brisk sentences, the general summed up the conflicting emotions about Mr. Obama in Iraq, the place outside America with perhaps the most riding on its relationship with him. There was, as Mr. Obama prepared to visit here, excitement over a man who is the anti-Bush in almost every way: a Democrat who opposed a war that many Iraqis feel devastated their nation. And many in the political elite recognize that Mr. Obama shares their hope for a more rapid withdrawal of American forces from Iraq. But his support for troop withdrawal cuts both ways, reflecting a deep internal quandary in Iraq: for many middle-class Iraqis, affection for Mr. Obama is tempered by worry that his proposal could lead to chaos in a nation already devastated by war.  

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SALTER EGO
(Michael Crowley, New Republic)

The 53-year-old Salter is, as [2000 campaign official Dan] Schnur puts it, "the custodian of John McCain's identity." … Now Salter has one last chance to write a great convention speech for his boss. He is headed to his summer cottage in Maine--purchased with his share of the book royalties he splits with McCain (who gives his half to charity)--to focus on a task fellow McCainiacs acknowledge will be critical... Salter hints the speech will spotlight McCain's moments of self-sacrifice, as when he refused early release from captivity in Vietnam or challenged his own party over campaign finance reform. The contrast, he says, will be the "selfishness" of "self-interested" political partisans--i.e. Obama--who, he argues, have risked nothing of substance in their lives… The baby-boomer speechwriter must come up with an address that explains why voters should choose the elderly McCain's experience and grounding in traditional values over the youthful Gen-X audacity of Obama. In the Salter narrative, the self-sacrificing war hero could not meet a better foil than the Obamamaniacs' narcissistic world of Facebook and YouTube and Scarlett Johansson.

THE RUNNING MATE QUESTION: HILL VETERAN OR CHANGE AGENT?
(Shailagh Murray and Chris Cillizza, Washington Post)

Despite their differences in age and geographic base, Nunn, Bayh and Reed all fit well in the experience column among contenders for the No. 2 spot on the ticket -- Washington veterans with deep résumés and credentials in government. But Obama is also considering individuals who are more in his own political mold, fellow outsiders who would reinforce his message of bringing change to Washington. As they weigh their options, Obama advisers and prominent supporters are divided as to the wiser course... Neither Kaine nor Sebelius -- nor Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona, Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana, Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, or any of the other new wave of Democratic leaders whose names show up on prospect lists -- would alleviate voter concerns about Obama's lack of foreign policy and national security experience. But many close to Obama say that he does not view his brief tenure on the national scene as a deficiency and that he may be more inclined to use the vice presidential pick to underscore that he is a different kind of candidate.

MORE: Obama Needs a Foreign-Policy Heavyweight (Steve Kornacki, New York Observer)
Conventional wisdom can be and often is wrong, especially when it comes to running-mate speculation. Maybe you can remember back to 1992, when just about every wise man and woman opined on the supposed importance of Bill Clinton, then a 45-year-old Southern governor, balancing his ticket with a gray-haired Northerner. Clinton, of course, ignored them and picked an even more youthful Tennessean named Al Gore, forming a visually powerful partnership that netted 370 electoral votes and made an utter mockery of conventional wisdom. But there are times when, just like the proverbial broken clock, conventional wisdom actually gets it right. Case in point: the widely repeated view that Barack Obama needs to compensate for his perceived national security and foreign policy inexperience by selecting a running mate with reassuringly impeccable credentials in those areas. There is more than a little something to this idea.

WHY I STILL KINDA LIKE JOHN MCCAIN
(Jonathan Chait, New Republic)

As for his substantive views, they do (now) closely resemble Bush's. Yet the upside to a candidate who changes his philosophical orientation as often as McCain is that he could always switch back. While I certainly wouldn't recommend that anybody go so far as to vote for him on that basis, it still offers some grounds for hope... McCain's most longstanding conservative principle is his aversion to wasteful spending. But this has always sprung from an aversion to waste, not a Goldwater-esque opposition to government in principle. McCain's reformist impulses on spending are far more congenial to the progressive vision. If nothing else, his longstanding repugnance for pork-barrel spending would hold out the prospect of clearing away waste in the federal budget... The best aspect of a McCain presidency is that, while it would probably follow the policies of George W. Bush, it would put an end to the politics of Karl Rove. I went back and reread Michael Lewis's 1997 New York Times Magazine profile of McCain, which gushed (persuasively) over McCain long before McCain- gushing had become a media cliché. You can see in it that, even before his first presidential campaign made him persona non grata in the GOP, McCain really was a highly bipartisan figure. The article cites McCain working unusually closely with Democrats, and quotes Democrats lavishing praise on him. He impugns his own party's leadership as corrupt. He jokingly refers to his younger political self as a "freshman right-wing Nazi." Conservative ideologues, as a rule, do not liken conservatism to national socialism.

A NEW ELECTORATE IN THE MAKING
(Rhodes Cook, RealClear Politics)

Will Colorado and Virginia lead an array of longtime Republican states that might be won this time by Democrat Barack Obama? Or might Michigan and Pennsylvania be in the vanguard of Democratic strongholds picked off by Republican John McCain? Those are among the more intriguing questions as the 2008 general election campaign heats up. But one thing's for sure: changes in the electoral map require some alterations in the electorate itself. And that seems to be happening. In the 29 states (plus the District of Columbia) where voter affiliation is kept by party, the Democrats have scored perceptible gains since the presidential election of 2004 while the Republicans have suffered significant losses. To be specific, the number of registered Democrats in party registration states has grown by nearly 700,000 since President George W. Bush was reelected in November 2004, while the total of registered Republicans has declined by almost 1 million... This overall trend--Democrats up, Republicans down--is also mirrored in many of the states that already have been identified as battlegrounds for 2008. And with only a comparative handful of votes needed to swing key states such as Iowa and Nevada the Democrats' way, the latest registration numbers can only fuel the party's considerable optimism.

MCCAIN'S CULT OF TEDDY ROOSEVELT
(Michael Knox Beran, National Review)

Asked recently by the New York Times to name a conservative model, John McCain cited Theodore Roosevelt. Teddy, of course, had no shortage of virtues. Conservatism, alas, wasn’t one of them. It’s one thing for a conservative to admire T. R.’s style and gallantry, the charge up San Juan Hill, the rounding up of crooks in the Badlands. It’s something else for a conservative to identify Roosevelt as a fellow reformer, as Sen. McCain did in the Times interview. Far from allaying conservative fears, McCain can only add to them by trying to make a conservative of a man who, largely for reasons of expediency, embraced a host of dubious reforms, and who ended his public career by embracing the Progressive dream of a state strong enough to command the industry and commerce of the nation.

MCCAIN'S HUMOR OFTEN BACKFIRES
(Ben Smith, Politico)

Ever hear that joke about waterboarding? How about the one about killing Iranians? And why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? If you aren't familiar with those witty japes, then you've missed out on John McCain's lighter side. Rooted in a time before there was political correctness, and before there was the South Park backlash against political correctness, McCain's wisecracking persona is cutting at times, self-deprecating at others, and always amused by the political process swirling around him. Even in his pursuit of the White House, the candidate has--sometimes to the dismay of his handlers--managed to keep his sense of humor. As he campaigns through the densest media thicket in American history, it's become clear that McCain hasn't acquired the layer of polish that produced, for instance, Ronald Reagan's gentle, oft-repeated jokes and Bill Clinton's colorful, folksy yarns. McCain's humor, by contrast, makes him the political counterpart of the radio host Don Imus (whom he has defended): It's sharp, unrehearsed, and at times, way, way over the line. 

OBAMA NOT QUITE HIS FATHER'S SON
(Edmund Sanders, Los Angeles Times)

During an emotion-packed visit to his father's homeland in 2006, Sen. Barack Obama took time from family reunions and official visits to chastise Kenya's government for failing to stem corruption and tribalism, irking his hosts in the process. It wasn't the first time an Obama had taken Kenya's elite to task. Forty years earlier, a rising star named Barack Obama -- tall, elegant and impeccably dressed -- attacked the nation's post-independence government, accusing leaders of betraying their ideals and replicating the nepotism of departing colonialists... Although the lives of father and son scarcely intersected beyond a few letters and a 1971 visit in Hawaii when the younger Obama was 10, friends and family see similarities in the men's charisma and eloquence, even if their lives took dramatically different turns. Both achieved success at a young age. Both advocated change. And both displayed a self-confidence that friends described as bordering on cocky.

VOTERS WANT ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP
(Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal)

Leading on the economy's biggest problems – housing and the credit crisis – would allow Messrs. McCain or Obama to run as an outside-the-Beltway reformer, willing to take on insider deals that Middle America hates and add to (or foster) a reputation for decisive action. It would also help in battleground states. Denver, Detroit, Cleveland, Las Vegas and Miami metro areas are all in the top 10 in foreclosure rates. Both candidates have challenges in taking up this cause. Each has received money from Fannie and Freddie employees this election: $82,299 to Mr. Obama and $14,400 to Mr. McCain. Mr. McCain isn't as strong in talking about the economy as he is about national security. Mr. Obama, on the other hand, is steeped in the Fannie/Freddie culture. He briefly tapped a former Fannie CEO to head his vice presidential search and he once worked for Acorn. And his campaign depends on Acorn's activists for voter registration drives. He may be too obligated to act against their allies. But both candidates should remember past elections. For example, Republican William McKinley won in 1896 in part by embracing hard money after William Jennings Bryan's "Cross of Gold" speech at the Democratic convention. And in 1992, Bill Clinton won in part by promising tax cuts for the middle class to deal with a slowing economy. In both elections, nimbleness helped bring victory. What worked before can work today.

MORE: What McCain Economic Policy? (Harold Meyerson, Washington Post)
At the very moment when the economy looms larger in Americans' consciousness than it has in decades, McCain comes before the electorate doctrinally adrift. By his own admission, McCain has never been a student of the economy -- but neither have any number of American presidents. When the economy is humming along, their economic illiteracy has been a problem they can elide. They take refuge in the economic bromides of the time. Their speeches are filled with reaffirmations of their party's economic doctrine. But as McCain tries to balance the tattered libertarianism of Reaganomics with the financial exigencies of the moment, he and his campaign have moved beyond inconsistency into utter incoherence. He vows to balance the budget while also cutting corporate taxes and making permanent the Bush tax cuts for the rich -- even though the rich and corporations made out like bandits during the Bush "prosperity," while everyone else's incomes stagnated. McCain squares this circle by vowing to cut entitlements, a move that would reduce, rather than enhance, consumer purchasing power at a time of economic downturn (or any other time, for that matter).

OBAMA FACES HIS OVERSEAS AUDITION
(Karen Tumulty, Time)

Even though the details remain sketchy, it's clear that Barack Obama's upcoming trip to the Middle East and Europe is an audition on the world stage. But the most important critics will not be the foreign leaders who will be sizing him up as a potential member of their ranks, or the cheering throngs that are likely to greet him at every stop. The audience that matters most will be the voters back home, where many Americans have yet to be convinced that this young man of relatively little experience is the right person to fill the role of their commander-in-chief. "This," says Ken Duberstein, who was Ronald Reagan's White House Chief of Staff, "is an absolute opportunity to get over the acceptability threshold." Polling suggests that Obama still has a way to go in that regard. In the latest Washington Post/ABC News survey, only 48% of registered voters said Obama would make a good commander in chief, with an equal percentage saying he wouldn't. By comparison, 72% said John McCain would be a good one.

MEDIA STARS WILL ACCOMPANY OBAMA OVERSEAS
(Jim Rutenberg, New York Times)

Senator John McCain's trip to Iraq last spring was a low-key affair: With his ordinary retinue of reporters following him abroad, the NBC News anchor Brian Williams reported on his arrival in Baghdad from New York, with just two sentences tacked onto the "in other political news" portion of his newscast. But when Obama heads for Iraq and other locations overseas this summer, Williams is planning to catch up with him in person, as are the other two evening news anchors, Charles Gibson of ABC and Katie Couric of CBS, who, like Williams, are far along in discussions to interview Obama on successive nights. And while the anchors are jockeying for interviews with Obama at stops along his route, the regulars on the Obama campaign plane will have new seat mates: star political reporters from the major newspapers and magazines who are flocking to catch Obama's first overseas trip since becoming the presumptive nominee of his party. The extraordinary coverage of Obama's trip reflects how the candidate remains an object of fascination in the news media, a built-in feature of being the first African-American presidential nominee for a major political party and a relative newcomer to the national stage.
 

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Posted By: votenic (July 17, 2008 at 9:40 AM)

NEWS FLASH: There is a new 2008 Vice President weekly poll at http://www.votenic.com so see who America thinks should be the candidates' running mates.