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Posted Wednesday, July 23, 2008 7:40 AM

The Filter: July 23, 2008

Andrew Romano

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

ALL HAIL 'MCBAMA'
(Thomas Friedman, New York Times)

McCain was right about the surge. It has helped to stabilize Iraq and create a better chance there for political reconciliation. But Iraq has always been a story full of surprises. And one of the most important political surprises is how quickly the surge has made Iraq safe for Barack Obama’s foreign policy — and for the election policy of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. Do not believe for a second that there was any mistranslation when Maliki blurted out to the German magazine Der Spiegel recently that Obama’s withdrawal timetable for U.S. combat troops from Iraq — 16 months after the next U.S. president is sworn in — “could be suitable.” Maliki was quite specific: “Who wants to exit in a quicker way has a better assessment of the situation in Iraq.” He was speaking a deep truth: the modicum of stability produced by the surge has changed the political dynamics of the Iraq story... More and more mainstream Iraqi politicians believe they are able to run their own affairs, and fewer and fewer mainstream Americans believe we are able to devote another presidency to Iraq... So McCain, who called the surge right, may get little credit, because the story now is about post-surge Iraq. McCain’s post-surge view — which also may be right — is that Iraqis still do not have the military force capable of protecting their homeland and need more U.S. help in nation-building. Meanwhile, Obama, who was not a surge supporter and simply stuck to his 16-month withdrawal timetable, finds himself — by luck or smarts — in perfect harmony with the post-surge mood in Iraq. His timetable may be too short, but Obama can worry about that later.

OBAMA TOUR STAGED FOR POLITICAL POP
(Carrie Budoff Brown, Politico)

Democrat Barack Obama doesn’t travel light. Halfway around the world, the Obama campaign machine appears as sprawling and seamless as it is on its home turf. As the presumptive Democratic nominee tours five countries in five days, he brings an entourage that would make a pop star envious. A dozen top foreign policy advisers are either traveling with Obama or doing ground work ahead of his arrival in each country. This group is supplemented by his usual contingent of almost a dozen traveling aides, including chief campaign strategist David Axelrod and communications director Robert Gibbs, and too many advance staff to count. With layers of Secret Service agents, they zipped through Amman Tuesday in a motorcade of 20 vehicles. The mix of policy and political advisers reflects the split dimension of the senator’s tour through Europe and the Middle East: Even as his closest aides insist that the trip is a fact-finding and relationship-building mission, Obama’s every step is being intricately managed to maximize political advantage.  From the saturated media coverage to the one-on-one meetings with heads of state, the trip already had a White House feel. The scope of the traveling staff simply adds to an aura of a president-in-waiting.

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OBAMA SHIFTS THE FOREIGN POLICY DEBATE
(Karen DeYoung and Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post)

Sen. Barack Obama, on his first and likely only overseas trip as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has remade the campaign's foreign policy playing field, neatly sidestepping Republican charges that he has been naive and wrong on Iraq and moving to a broader, post-Iraq focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. In essence, Obama has declared the war in Iraq all but over. "There is security progress," he said during yesterday's news conference in Amman, Jordan. "Now we need a political solution." While a diminished U.S. force under his presidency would continue to protect U.S. personnel, target terrorists and provide training, he said, it would be up to Baghdad to consolidate the victory by "setting up a government that is working for the people." Two days spent in Afghanistan and two days in Iraq, Obama said, reinforced his belief that it is time for the United States to move on. Calling the situation in Afghanistan "perilous and urgent," he said both U.S. military and Afghan government officials agree that "we must act now to reverse a deteriorating situation." Obama's analysis has been buttressed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other Iraqi leaders who, to the dismay of the White House and Sen. John McCain, his Republican opponent, have publicly agreed with his call for completing a U.S. combat withdrawal from Iraq in 2010.

MCCAIN'S UNHAPPY WARRIOR
(John Dickerson, Slate)

John McCain attacked Barack Obama both at home and abroad this week. One attack was smart. One wasn't. On Iraq, McCain pressed Obama over his opposition to the troop surge—the strategy that has reduced violence in Iraq and led to modest political gains for the al-Maliki government. This was smart. The topic is on McCain's issue turf, potentially puts his opponent at odds with the American generals who executed the surge, and makes Obama look like a hidebound pol who won't absorb new facts that contradict his predetermined conclusions. McCain's dumb attack came in a television ad that blamed Barack Obama for high oil prices. You might have thought the cause of the oil-price hike was war, SUVs, OPEC, speculation, and global demand for oil. Nope—it's Obama. By this standard, he should also answer for the Starbucks closings and the dent in my Honda. McCain is attacking too much and indiscriminately. The barrage undermines his brand, takes time away from telling voters what he might do for them, and looks awfully old-timey in a year when voters want a new brand. He should go on the offensive, yes, but in targeted forays.

MCCAIN'S MESSAGE GETS A MAKEOVER
(Laura Meckler and Elizabeth Holmes, Wall Street Journal)

As his campaign bus rolled through northern Wisconsin recently, John McCain interrupted a conversation to take a cell-phone call. It was "Sgt. Schmidt," he reported -- his nickname for Steve Schmidt, the sharp-tongued strategist he recently drafted to take over the campaign. In the past few weeks, Sen. McCain has largely put his fate in the hands of Mr. Schmidt, who met with the candidate after a widely ridiculed campaign event on June 3 -- the same night Sen. Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and the general election effectively began. The campaign had to get its act together.

IS MCCAIN'S AGE SHOWING?
(Howard Kurtz, Washington Post)

We interrupt the nonstop coverage of Barack Obama's overseas trip to bring you some breaking whispers about John McCain. He has been making a series of verbal slips -- invariably described as "gaffes" -- that are starting to ricochet from liberal blogs to the mainstream media. And fairly or not, some critics are suggesting the 71-year-old Republican candidate is showing his age. McCain referred to the "Iraq-Pakistan border" in a "Good Morning America" interview; since there is no such border, he must have meant Afghanistan-Pakistan. He has twice referred to Czechoslovakia, a country that ceased to exist in 1993; mixed up Sunnis and Shiites; and identified Vladimir Putin as president of Germany. Aides to the Arizona senator dismiss the missteps as meaningless, noting that their man is far more accessible to journalists than Obama. "When you engage with reporters from 8:30 a.m. till 8 at night, you're bound to make a gaffe," says McCain communications director Jill Hazelbaker. "People are yearning for the kind of president who takes tough questions, and that's who John McCain is."... The question is fair, says veteran analyst Charlie Cook of National Journal. "People wonder if McCain is kind of like a pitcher seven or eight years past his prime and misses a few here and there," he says. "When you're about to turn 72, people are going to be watching to see if you're slipping."

PRESS COVERAGE OF OBAMA PUTS ENVY IN THE AIR
(Maeve Reston, Los Angeles Times)

In past campaigns, complaints about media bias have galvanized conservatives, which could help McCain as he tries to solidify the Republican base. In February, the campaign sought donations by citing a widely criticized New York Times report about McCain's ties to a female lobbyist. That appeal set a campaign record for the amount raised online in one day to that point. But the sentiments in the fundraising e-mail Tuesday were also a public expression of months of grumbling by McCain advisors, who sarcastically call Obama "The One." Ironically, McCain's own good relations with the media over the years have been the envy of his opponents. He has even joked about the press being his "base." On McCain's plane from New Hampshire to Baltimore on Tuesday, advisor Mark Salter cited analyses by the Project for Excellence in Journalism, which studies the fairness of coverage by evaluating campaign articles. The project found Obama had a "distinct advantage" over McCain in the six weeks since Hillary Rodham Clinton left the race. Obama has appeared as a leading newsmaker in 78% of election stories, and McCain in 51%. Salter joked that he'd moved from anger to resignation. "It is what it is," he said. "I would contend that the facts will show that Obama gets 50% more attention in the news than McCain does, post the primaries. I don't know if that is good or bad for us." 

MORE: McCain Says Coverage is 'Fun to Watch' (Mike Allen, Politico)
Trying to avoid being portrayed as a whiney spoilsport, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) broke with his advisers Tuesday and told Katie Couric of CBS News that news coverage of the presidential campaign has been fair and even “fun to watch.”... Asked whether he believes he’d had unfair media coverage, McCain replied: “I don't think so. I think …it is what it is. I'm a big boy. And I'm enjoying every minute of the campaigning. And I'm certainly not complaining."

HEALTH PLAN FROM OBAMA SPURS DEBATE
(Kevin Sack, New York Times)

It is one of the most audacious promises in a campaign that has been thick with them. In speech after speech, Senator Barack Obama has vowed that he will lower the country’s health care costs enough to “bring down premiums by $2,500 for the typical family.” Moreover, Mr. Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has promised that his health plan will be in place “by the end of my first term as president of the United States.” Whether Mr. Obama can deliver is a matter of considerable dispute among health analysts and economists. While there is consensus that the American health care system is bloated with waste, eliminating enough to save $2,500 per family would require simultaneous and synergistic solutions to a host of problems that have proved intractable for decades. Even if the next president and Congress can muster the political will, analysts question whether significant savings would materialize in as little as four years, or even in 10. But as Mr. Obama confronts an electorate that is deeply unsettled by escalating health costs, he is offering a precise “chicken in every pot” guarantee based on numbers that are largely unknowable. Furthermore, it is not completely clear what he is promising.

DONATIONS TO OBAMA CAMPAIGN INCLUDE SOME BIGGIES
(Dan Morain, Los Angeles Times)

Even as he touts his base of small donors, Barack Obama is relying heavily on well-heeled contributors who have given $28,500 or more each to Democratic Party committees that will campaign on his behalf. Obama aides emphasized that the average donation to his campaign in June -- during which he brought in $52 million -- was $68. Over the course of his campaign, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee has raised $340 million. By law, an individual can give no more than $2,300 to a candidate for the primary and $2,300 for the general election. Obama has established joint fundraising agreements with the Democratic National Committee and two other party committees. Those entities can raise larger sums and spend unlimited amounts on behalf of individual candidates. Of the $20.3 million Obama's joint fundraising committees amassed in June, 86%, or $17.6 million, came in chunks of $5,000 or more; 64% came in increments of $28,500 or more, campaign finance reports filed over the weekend show. 

RUMORS TURN TALK TO MCCAIN
(Joseph Curl and Ralph Z. Hallow)

With the American press corps - make that the entire global media conglomerate - tracking every move of Sen. Barack Obama across the Middle East and Europe, how on earth does Sen. John McCain break into the news? By floating a little veep talk, that's how. Of course, no one in the McCain campaign would talk publicly about the genesis of a rumor that swept through the traveling press corps after a veteran conservative columnist reported that the Republican "will reveal the name of his vice presidential selection this week." Nevermind that the timing seemed absurd--Americans are weary of election politics and busy with backyard barbecues, and every one of the possible vice-presidential choices comes with drawbacks and are still being vetted by McCain advisers. "I don't think McCain should pick a running mate before Obama does," said David Norcross, a Republican National Committee member who ran the 2004 presidential nominating convention in New York. "McCain doesn't gain anything by doing it now." More problematic, though, is who will be the Arizona Republican's choice. None of the most frequently mentioned names seems to be without significant drawbacks, and if the list of choices is accurate, McCain officials are busy vetting as many a dozen people.

ROMNEY: A MISTAKE FOR MCCAIN
(Dick Morris, RealClear Politics)

Would Romney help McCain? I don’t see how. Social conservatives and evangelicals cannot but smart over his former earnest declarations of his determination to “protect a woman’s right to choose” and his famous statement during a campaign debate that he would be a better senator for gays than Ted Kennedy. In the primaries, evangelicals all backed Huckabee rather than Romney. Would he help McCain win fiscal conservatives? If Obama’s tax plans don’t accomplish that, one has to wonder about their sanity. McCain should, at a minimum, choose a candidate who won’t cost him votes. And, at a maximum, he should go with a vice presidential choice that redefines his candidacy. With the nation in the grip of a fundamental re-appraisal of its past rule by white men, both Condi Rice and Colin Powell suggest themselves as excellent alternatives. They would excite voters, turn them on and give them a way to vote against Obama without ruffling their consciences. Either candidate would make an excellent spokesman in putting down Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience or expertise and would make the statement, by his or her very presence on the ticket, that national security concerns should impel McCain’s election.

HE'S BOB BARR, AND HE'S RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT
(Faye Fiore, Los Angeles Times)

One of the many challenges of Barr's fanciful bid for the White House is figuring out how to get America to take him seriously. Barr, 59, is not without political credentials -- a four-term Republican congressman from Georgia, he crusaded to impeach President Clinton for abuse of power even before the country heard the name Monica S. Lewinsky. But out on the presidential campaign trail, hardly anyone asks about his plans to end taxes or get out of Iraq. When they aren't focusing on facial hair, they want to know if he plans to steal the election from McCain, the likely GOP nominee, and hand it to Barack Obama, his Democratic rival. Barr is regularly compared to Ralph Nader, the Green Party spoiler who drew crucial votes from Democrat Al Gore in 2000. Worried McCain supporters have begged Barr to drop out. The renegade responds with his famous bespectacled glare, referring to himself in the third person, as is his habit: "The GOP has no agenda, no platform and a candidate who generates no excitement. That's not Bob Barr's fault." Being regarded as a spoiler is not his first choice, but if it gets him on CNN -- which it did twice in as many days during a recent week of campaigning -- then so be it. This is known as free media, all Barr can afford since he started out 18 months and millions of dollars behind his more famous rivals. His operation is so frugal, campaign manager Russ Verney personally authorized a case of Dr. Pepper and a big jar of pretzels for the untested staffers, who are so young they have to pay a premium to rent a car.

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