Sauerkraut, anyone? Today, more than 200,000 Germans----nearly triple the size of his largest U.S. crowd to date--gathered between Berlin's Brandenburg Gate and Siegessäule to hear Barack Obama speak. Meanwhile, John McCain was 4,339 miles away at Schmidt's Sausage Haus in Columbus, Ohio, where he greeted a handful of diners and downed some bratwurst with his pal Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.

So who had the better afternoon?

The answer's not as obvious as the images--or the gushing cable coverage--might imply. To see why, it's helpful to divide Obama's actual audience--not the Teutons in attendance, but his countrymen back home--into three psychographic groups. The first two have already decided whom they're voting for. On the right, there are those who see Obama's unprecedented overseas adventure as unforgivably presumptuous--part of a pattern extending from last month's faux-presidential seal to the report today that he's directed his aides to begin planning for his White House transition. For them, the centerpiece of Obama's Berlin speech--"tonight, I speak to you... as a fellow citizen of the world"--will sound "a little too post-nationalist," or, put another way, not sufficiently "American." On the left, meanwhile, there are the folks who consider Obama's Kenya-to-Kansas persona the perfect antidote to President Bush's patented brand of "cowboy diplomacy." For these globally conscious voters, watching the Democratic nominee's Berlin rally--with its sea of adoring foreigners holding hundreds of American flags--was like glimpsing planet earth's utopian future. The first group--which has shrunk since John Kerry was declared "too French" in 2004--is voting for McCain; the second--which has grown--is voting for Obama. Berlin merely reinforced these preferences.

The real political target of the senator's speech--which was appropriately eloquent and appropriately safe--was somewhere in between. Today, 75 percent of U.S. citizens believe that Bush's foreign policy is to blame for anti-American sentiment overseas, and 70 percent disapprove of his performance as president; only 46 percent, on average, support Obama. In other words, 25 to 30 percent of the electorate is disgusted with Bush--especially on international affairs--yet still not sold on the Democratic nominee. That's group number three. In the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 55 percent of voters said Obama would be the riskier choice for president, and a mere 25 percent said he'd make a better commander in chief. These people agree that Obama would help restore America's reputation abroad. But they're still not sure he's ready for office. The point of Obama's globetrotting performance this week, then, was to lower his risk factor and raise his commander-in-chief cred by giving these swing voters a chance to picture him as POTUS. I'm ready to meet with the Merkels and Malikis and restore our international reputation, he's saying. You know how you can tell? I'm already doing it. Figure out how many anti-Bush Obama skeptics were swayed by the senator's seven days of exhaustively choreographed photo-ops--at the Western Wall, with Maliki, in Gen. Petraeus's chopper--and you'll know how successful his tour really was. Given their skepticism, I can't imagine the number is earth-shattering. That's not to say the trip wasn't a worthwhile experience for Obama and an inspiring vision for many Americans. It undoubtedly was. It's just that the domestic political benefits probably aren't as large as Chris Matthews and Co. are making them out to be.

In fact, there's reason to believe that it's McCain, not Obama, who's made up the most ground in recent days--especially in key swing states. According to the latest American Research Group polls, Obama now trails by two points in Florida after having led by five, and his New Hampshire lead has plunged from 12 points to two. Rasmussen, meanwhile, shows the Illinois senator down by 10 in Ohio--a nine point drop from mid-June--and Quinnipiac finds McCain gaining 15 in Minnesota, two in Michigan and seven in Colorado. All of which underscores the central reality of the race: Obama is ahead--but just barely. Pollster.com's national polling average gives him a two-point lead; RealClear Politics pegs it at four.

So the fact remains. McCain may be "pretty obviously doomed this year," as Kevin Drum recently opined, and you may not, in the words of my NEWSWEEK colleague Howard Fineman, be able to "make up how bad things are going" for him. Furthermore, "Democrats [may] enjoy an average lead of 11.6 percent in generic Congress polls; "the Republican administration [may be] wildly unpopular"; and "the economy [may be] in a tailspin." But McCain is still within striking distance. According to the New Republic's John Judis, that's because Obama "remains the 'mysterious stranger' rather than the 'American Adam' to too many voters"-- that is, voters "who are put off rather than attracted by his race and exotic background," or are simply uncomfortable with his relatively short resume. What's more, Obama's recent efforts to prove his foreign-policy chops, while understandable, may also be somewhat counterproductive. As Stephen Medvic writes, "by doing so, he is priming voters to think about the very issues on which they prefer John McCain. Indeed, his trip overseas was intended to portray him in a positive light on the world stage. It has certainly done that... [But] foreign policy isn't likely to drive many voting decisions in the fall (barring a major international event). As a result, Obama's best bet is to return home as soon as possible and start priming voters on the issue area he can dominate--the economy." In the end, that's why Obama's trip to Berlin, Germany may not matter as much as his stops in places like Berlin, N.H., Berlin, Penn. and Berlin, Wisc.--despite what you're seeing on the tube.

By the way, we hear the brat at Schmidt's is wunderbar. 

Related Photo Gallery: Obama, With the World Watching