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Posted Monday, July 28, 2008 8:17 AM

The Filter: July 28, 2008

Andrew Romano

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

MCCAIN TAKES AIM AT OBAMA'S CHARACTER
(Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin, Politico)

As Senator Barack Obama traveled overseas, the campaign against him appeared to take a decisive new turn with Senator John McCain zeroing in on his Democratic opponent’s character. In a year when polls show an easy victory for a generic Democratic candidate, McCain has until now been loathe to employ the tack many strategists see as essential and which anonymous e-mailers and commenters with no apparent links to his campaign have been practicing since last summer: hitting Obama not on his record or his platform, but on his values and person. The Democrat’s Achilles’ heel in this model is an inchoate sense among some voters that the new arrival on the national stage with the unusual biography—and who’s the first black nominee from either party—isn’t American enough. Prior to Obama’s trip overseas, though, McCain had instead employed, without appreciable effect, a more conventional critique of his opponent as an ordinary politician, a “flip-flopper,” and, of course, a liberal.

100 DAYS TO GO
(Susan Page, USA Today)

In the time before Nov. 4, running mates will be chosen and platform skirmishes fought, economic reports released and as many as one-third of votes cast early by absentee ballot and at registrars' offices. Will more U.S. troops be pulled out of Iraq? Could a so-called October surprise be sprung, by calculation or catastrophe, that reshapes the campaign's close? Both campaigns are acutely conscious of the passage of time. At Barack Obama's headquarters in Chicago, a countdown calendar hangs just outside campaign manager David Plouffe's office. The same count appears on white boards throughout John McCain's headquarters in a Virginia suburb of Washington. The momentum and intensity of the campaign builds almost every day as you approach the election," says Tad Devine, a strategist for Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. "You spend a lot of time planning for the events you know about, and you spend a lot of time reacting to the events that just happen."

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MR. PRESIDENT? NOT QUITE, BUT PRESIDENTIAL
(Mark Leibovich, New York Times)
Senator Barack Obama has stood before a lectern adorned with a faux presidential seal. Senator John McCain recently began giving a radio address every Saturday. Mr. Obama’s campaign plane has been nicknamed O-Force One. (Obama-’08/President is stitched into the captain’s chair.) Mr. McCain gave a speech in Columbus in May hypothetically looking back on his first term in office. It is unclear when the two presidential candidates will hold their first state dinners, spend their first weekends at Camp David or welcome this year’s N.B.A. champions, the Boston Celtics, to the Rose Garden. Oh, wait, neither of these guys has been elected yet. It can be easy to overlook this detail given that Mr. McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee, and Mr. Obama, of Illinois, his Democratic counterpart, have been assuming the trappings and behaviors of already-elected presidents. Candidates always strive to project an image consistent with the office they are seeking. But in McCain vs. Obama — the first general election matchup in 56 years that will not include a sitting president or vice president — two senators with minimal executive experience seem to be falling all over themselves to playact the role of president.

FOREIGNERS
(Hendrik Hertzberg, New Yorker)

There has been much discussion of whether it will prove politically advantageous for Obama to have addressed a mile-long crowd of two hundred thousand happy Berliners in the golden early-evening sunlight. Berliners are Germans, and Germans are foreigners, and since well before John Kerry was demonized for knowing how to speak French it has been axiomatic that heartland Americans don’t like foreigners piping up about our elections, however much brainland Americans may disagree. Obama gained nothing in the polls during his nearly flawless, arguably triumphant grand tour. Still, after seven years during which, even among our closest allies, contempt for Bush bled into resentment of the country that returned him to office, one would have to be an awful grouch not to be gratified by the sight of a sea of delighted Europeans waving American flags instead of burning them and cheering an American politician instead of demonstrating against one.

EMBRACED OVERSEAS, BUT TO WHAT EFFECT
(Dan Balz, Washington Post)

By almost every measure, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's overseas tour that concluded here Saturday was a clear success, with meticulously planned and deftly executed events designed to beam back images to the United States of a politician comfortable on the world stage. What isn't measurable is whether it worked. Will a week of one-on-one meetings with foreign officials, cheering crowds, favorable and voluminous media coverage on both sides of the Atlantic and plain good fortune on the debate over getting out of Iraq overcome the doubts he faces at home about his readiness to be president? And if it doesn't, what will?... Obama's assessment is that the payoff from one of the most ambitious foreign trips ever undertaken by a presumptive nominee could come much later. "The value to me of this trip is, hopefully, it gives voters a sense that I can in fact -- and do -- operate effectively on the international stage," he said. "That may not be decisive for the average voter right now, given our economic troubles, but it's knowledge they can store in the back of their minds for when they go into the polling place later." 

FOR OBAMA, HURDLES IN EXPANDING THE BLACK VOTE
(Alec MacGillis and Jennifer Agiesta, Washington Post)

At the heart of the Obama campaign's strategy is a national effort to increase registration and turnout among the millions of Democratic-inclined Americans who have not been voting, particularly younger people and African Americans. The push began during the primaries but expanded this month to a nationwide registration drive led by 3,000 volunteers dispatched around the country. Gaining greater African American support could well put Obama over the top in states where Democrats have come close in the past two elections, and could also help him retain the big swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. If 95 percent of black voters support Obama in November, in line with a recent Washington Post-ABC News national poll, he can win Florida if he increases black turnout by 23 percent over 2004, assuming he performs at the same levels that Democratic candidate John F. Kerry did with other voters that year. Obama can win Nevada if he increases black turnout by 8 percent. Ohio was so close in 2004 that if Obama wins 95 percent of the black vote, more than Kerry did, he will win the state without a single extra voter. But an increase in overall black turnout could help offset a poorer performance among other voters. The push has also raised Democrats' hopes of reclaiming Southern states with large black populations, such as Georgia and North Carolina, where low turnout among voters of all races has left much more untapped potential than in traditionally competitive states such as Ohio.

DEMOCRACY GROUP GIVES DONORS ACCESS TO MCCAIN
(Mike McIntire, New York Times)

Over the years, Mr. McCain has nurtured a reputation for bucking the Republican establishment and criticizing the influence of special interests in politics. But an examination of his leadership of the [International Republican Institute, a democracy-building group he has led for 15 years]— one of the least-chronicled aspects of his political life — reveals an organization in many ways at odds with the political outsider image that has become a touchstone of the McCain campaign for president. Certainly the institute’s mission is in keeping with Mr. McCain’s full-throated support for exporting American democratic values. Yet the institute is also something of a revolving door for lobbyists and out-of-power Republicans that offers big donors a way of helping both the party and the institute’s chairman, who is the only sitting member of Congress — and now candidate for president — ever to head one of the democracy groups. Operating without the sort of limits placed on campaign fund-raising, the institute under Mr. McCain has solicited millions of dollars for its operations from some 560 defense contractors, lobbying firms, oil companies and other corporations, many with issues before Senate committees Mr. McCain was on.

DETAILS MISSING FROM OBAMA'S SOCIAL SECURITY PLAN
(Charles Babington, Associated Press) 

Barack Obama's bid to place a new Social Security tax on very high incomes is either a bold or foolhardy plan, depending on who critiques it. But its potential impact is almost impossible to gauge because he is providing few details on basic questions such as what the tax rate might be, what types of income would be taxed and how the taxpayers' benefits would be affected. The Democratic presidential candidate says he would work with lawmakers from both parties to resolve such matters. Voters generally applaud bipartisan cooperation, but they apparently will go to the polls this fall with only a vague notion of what Obama has in mind. Obama made headlines June 13 when he called for a Social Security payroll tax on incomes above $250,000 a year. Currently, the tax is levied only on the first $102,000 of each worker's income. That covers the entire salary of most Americans. Obama would not apply the Social Security tax to annual incomes between $102,000 and $250,000, a move meant to avoid alienating several million upper-income voters. His proposed change would apply only to those earning more than $250,000 a year, or about 3 percent of all taxpayers... With Obama offering few details, several news accounts suggested that his proposed tax on very high incomes would be applied just as the existing Social Security tax is levied on incomes up to $102,000. All workers pay a 6.2 percent Social Security payroll tax on such income. Their employers match it, for a total tax of 12.4 percent. The tax applies only to earned income, not to passive income such as dividends and interest. In recent weeks, Obama aides have quietly indicated that the proposed tax on incomes above $250,000 might be different in key aspects. The rate probably would be about 2 percent to 4 percent, not 6.2 percent, they said. It's also possible that it would apply to more types of income, including dividends and investments. As for benefits, the campaign has not said how the proposed tax on very high incomes would translate into new retirement income, if any, for those who pay it.

THE MCCAIN-LATINO DISCONNECT
(David Paul Kuhn, Politico)

GOP strategist Bill McInturff has long emphasized that earning 40 percent of the Hispanic vote is critical for Republicans to win. Today, McInturff is John McCain’s pollster, and by his metric McCain has a serious Latino problem. While he earned the support of about seven in ten Hispanics in his last Arizona Senate race, a Pew Hispanic Center poll released Thursday shows that just 23 percent of Latinos intend to vote for McCain in the presidential contest, barely half of the four in ten Latino voters who exit polls showed voted for President Bush in 2004. 

 

OBAMA TURNS FOCUS TO ECONOMIC POLICIES
(Stephanie Kirchgaessner, Financial Times)

Fresh from an international tour in which he sought to burnish his foreign policy credentials, Barack Obama will this week shift gears and seek to convince voters he would be better equipped than John McCain, his Republican rival, to run the sputtering US economy. The presumptive Democratic nominee plans to meet a panel of advisers today to examine his campaign's -economic policies. The gathering will include Warren Buffett, the billionaire -investor, Eric Schmidt, Google's chairman, Paul -Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, and -both Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, the former Treasury secretaries. Mr Obama told NBC yesterday that the team would discuss a second potential stimulus package, ways to shore up the housing market, and energy and infrastructure initiatives. The shift in emphasis underscores that, although polls suggest Mr Obama's biggest challenge ahead of the November election is demonstrating he has the experience to be commander-in-chief, it is the sluggish US economy that is at the forefront of voters' concerns.

OBAMA SAYS HE'S BECOMING COMPETITIVE IN RED STATES
(David Espo, Associated Press)

With 100 days remaining in the race for the White House, Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama says he has succeeded in expanding the electoral map in his race against John McCain, principally in southern and southwestern states but also in Montana and North Dakota. "It doesn't mean we're going to win all those states but at least we're making it a contest and giving voters something to choose from," he said in an interview aboard his campaign jet on the way back from an overseas trip. "Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia are all states where we are competitive," he said, adding he is going "toe to toe" with his rival in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

MORE: Hopefuls Gird for Florida Slugfest (Michael C. Bender, Palm Beach Post)
When presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama arrive in Florida this week for the first time in more than a month, they'll find a tight race for the state's precious electoral votes. Obama appears to have closed the gap on McCain--taking the lead in several recent polls for the first time--following a glut of campaign hires, a swarm of organizing and, perhaps most importantly, his first flood of targeted television ads, particularly in North Florida. Zogby pollsters and Karl Rove, President Bush's former top political adviser, put Florida in the tossup column last week, and McCain campaign officials acknowledged that the race in Florida has tightened. But much of the Republican's campaign structure has been in place since the January presidential primary, which the Democratic candidates sat out, McCain staffers say.

THE SPOKESPUNDITS
(Howard Kurtz, Washington Post)

Big-name strategists -- James Carville, George Stephanopoulos, Robert Shrum, Dick Morris, Karl Rove -- have always been ushered into television studios after leaving the political game. So have recovering officeholders, such as former congressmen Joe Scarborough and Harold Ford, now MSNBC commentators, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who signed with Fox News. But this season, many previously obscure spokesmen and second-string assistants are becoming A-list cable news guests, providing much of the patter for the 2008 race. It is as though a parade of .250 hitters and backup quarterbacks were joining the likes of Tim McCarver or John Madden in the broadcast booth. The explosion of political chat shows has put a premium on people who can be identified on screen as a former Democratic or Republican "strategist." And although viewers have a right to be skeptical -- how candid can they be, really? -- the guests do bring an insider's viewpoint forged during life in the trenches. "It serves as a political methadone of sorts," says Kevin Madden, the former spokesman for Mitt Romney's presidential effort. "You're engaged in 18-hour days working on a campaign, and afterward you have to wean yourself off that high."

OBAMA GIVES NO HINTS ON VP PICK
(Associated Press)

Funeral duty is not something that Sen. Barack Obama's vice president need worry much about, the presumptive Democratic nominee says. Mr. Obama refused again and again during an interview that aired Sunday to give hints on whom he might pick for a running mate, but he did describe the qualities he's looking for. Shyness and blind loyalty are not among them. "I'm going to want somebody with independence, who's willing to tell me where he thinks or she thinks I'm wrong," Mr. Obama said in an interview that aired Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." Whoever the Obama running mate turns out to be, that person would have more than a ceremonial role should the Democratic ticket win in November, according to the candidate. "We're going to have a lot of problems and a lot of work to do, and I'm not interested in a vice president who I just send off to go to funerals," the Illinois senator said. Every successful Democratic presidential ticket since the death of Franklin Roosevelt has had at least one Southerner, a geographic credential that some Republicans say proved troublesome for them. Mr. Obama would not bite on questions about whether he would continue that trend. He did say he wants someone who can complement him in the sense "that provide a knowledge base or an area of, of expertise that can be useful." The only person Mr. Obama would acknowledge is on his shortlist of running mates includes Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

MORE: Chance Dim for Clinton as Obama VP (Russell Berman, New York Sun)
Senator Obama is offering more clues that he will pick someone other than Senator Clinton as his running mate, even as he insists his former rival is under consideration for the job. Asked about the attributes he was looking for in a vice president, the presumptive Democratic nominee said yesterday that he wanted a candidate "who shares a vision of the country, where we need to go, that we've got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how our politics works, how business is done in Washington." That description is significant because it matches the core argument the Illinois senator offered against Mrs. Clinton's candidacy to defeat her in the Democratic primary. He characterized the former first lady as representing the status quo and a divisive brand of politics, and his statement yesterday signals that their broad agreement on policy may not be enough to win her a spot on the ticket.
 

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