A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

THE CAMPAIGN IS ALL ABOUT OBAMA
(Jonathan Martin and Mike Allen, Politico)
If you made a movie about the general election campaign so far, John McCain would be a supporting actor. Despite vulnerabilities that have kept the race closer in polls than most analysts expected--and McCain even jumped to a four-point lead among likely voters in a USA TODAY/Gallup poll released Monday--Barack Obama dominates the race by virtually any other measure. He is dictating the agenda and soaking up news coverage as McCain and his team scramble to react. “McCain is snakebit,” lamented one longtime Bush loyalist. On Sunday, New York Times columnist Frank Rich--no McCain fan admittedly--declared that Obama’s triumphant sweep through the Middle East and Europe had revealed him to be practically the “acting president.” Most political pros continue to believe the race remains within the GOP’s grasp. But two months of the five-month general election campaign are gone, and the McCain campaign – in a rerun of Hillary Clinton’s frustrations – are still searching for an effective formula for countering Obama’s appealing personality and fearsome political machine. Too often, GOP insiders grumble, McCain’s strategy seems simply reactive. On Sunday, Obama announced he’d be meeting with his economic advisers on Monday. On Monday morning, the McCain campaign announced a conference call with his economic advisers... “Tougher ads are in store for Obama this week,” according to a McCain source. “The campaign is committed to driving a sharper, more disciplined message contrast,” said an aide.

HOW BOXING EXPLAINS MCCAIN
(Michael Crowley, New Republic)
Boxing is a fitting obsession for McCain. Like the 71-year-old senator himself, the sport is a cultural throwback. A civilized way, dating to Ancient Greece, for one man to prove his strength over another, boxing was the great love of McCain's idol, the manly Teddy Roosevelt, who was partially blinded by it. But it also appeals to McCain's impish side--evoking the irascible Rat Pack style of Las Vegas he finds so appealing. (McCain is an unapologetic gambler: One acquaintance of mine tells of shooting craps past midnight with McCain in Vegas several years ago; McCain even loaned the guy's wife $50 to get her started.) In the Senate, McCain has sought to translate his love of boxing into policy. Initially, he was motivated by the grim lives of journeymen boxers, for whom he battled to win health care and pensions. "John has a real love for the sport, and it was evident," says the famed boxing commentator Bert Sugar, between drags on a cigar. "Of all the pressing problems, boxing wasn't one of them. And, yet, he devoted his time and saw it through."

BLUE-STATERS RUN THROUGH IT
(Douglas Belkin, Wall Street Journal)
While Montana's three electoral votes are hardly going to swing the election, the patterns here are taking root across the interior U.S. West, including in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Only two Democrats have carried Montana since 1948. Bill Clinton's 1992 victory was made possible only because Ross Perot split the state's Republican vote. In 2004, George Bush won the state by 20 points. As late as this spring, the electorate seemed headed in the same direction. A pair of statewide polls showed that Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, held a comfortable lead over Sen. Barack Obama. But after four visits by Sen. Obama, an aggressive media campaign and some well-organized ground work, the Illinois Democrat now leads by five points, according to a July 1 Rasmussen poll. The campaign says it is opening six offices in the state this month. The reason for his surge lies in part with the migration of Democrat-leaning, college-educated transplants like Mr. Walseth and his wife, Elizabeth Darrow. As the rural Republican eastern plains lose population and political influence, thousands of blue-staters who began arriving here in the 1990s are reaching a critical mass. The effect is that Bozeman and several other larger towns in western Montana have become political battlegrounds.

KAINE IN 'SERIOUS TALKS' WITH OBAMA
(Michael D. Shear and Shailagh Murray, Washington Post)
Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has told close associates that he has had "very serious" conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to Kaine. Sens. Evan Bayh (Ind.) and Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) are also being seriously vetted by the campaign staff, according to sources with knowledge of the process. Obama has revealed little about which way he is leaning. And despite rising anticipation that a decision is imminent, campaign officials said an announcement is likely in mid-August, shortly before the Democratic National Convention. Obama's top aides, David Plouffe and David Axelrod, huddled yesterday in the Washington office of Eric Holder, who along with Caroline Kennedy is vetting potential running mates. Although rumors have circulated about former military leaders and other nontraditional contenders, including Republicans, Obama's pool of prospects is heavy on longtime senators with foreign policy experience. Kaine and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius are the only state leaders believed to be under serious consideration, sources close to Obama said. Democrats who have discussed possible choices with campaign officials and have knowledge of the vetting process said others being considered include Sens. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and former senator Sam Nunn (Ga.). Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Democratic Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.) are mentioned as long shots.

OBAMA-CLINTON TICKET IS SEEN AS UNLIKELY
(Adam Nagourney, New York Times)
When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton abandoned her bid for the presidency and endorsed Senator Barack Obama in June, she made clear that she was interested in becoming his running mate, and Mr. Obama and his associates signaled respectfully that she would get full consideration. But there is mounting evidence that Mr. Obama’s interest in Mrs. Clinton for the post has faded considerably, if, in fact, she ever really was a strong contender to be on the ticket with him. In conversations, Mr. Obama’s advisers discuss Mrs. Clinton’s role at the Democratic convention next month in a way that suggests they are not thinking of her arriving in Denver as Mr. Obama’s running mate... The feeling goes both ways. Mrs. Clinton has told associates in recent days that she thinks there is little chance Mr. Obama will pick her and that she views the public pronouncements by some of Mr. Obama’s aides that she is under review as nothing more than a courtesy. She has not been asked to provide written documentation to the committee vetting the background of candidates for Mr. Obama. Although Mrs. Clinton probably needs less flyspecking than almost anyone else in the field — considering how long she has been in public life and how intensively her past has been examined — the silence from that corner is being taken by Mrs. Clinton’s advisers as evidence of where she stands on Mr. Obama’s vice presidential list.

HOW TO ROLL OUT A RUNNING MATE
(Jeanne Cummings, Politico)
As the two party conventions loom, Barack Obama and John McCain have a common wish: that their choice of a running mate shoves their rival out of the news, adds new complexity to the electoral map and brings a welcome spike in the polls. But both nominees-in-waiting should proceed with extraordinary care. Vice presidential picks, chosen poorly or rolled out improperly, also can quickly become public relations nightmares. The way Democratic strategist Tad Devine sees it, a running mate should have three moments: an announcement, a convention speech and a debate.  “The only other moment is when you screwed up,” says Devine, who’s had an inside seat at several vice presidential vetting processes and announcements. A look through history provides some do’s and don’ts for both McCain and Obama as they shrink their short lists and edge closer to naming their 2008 campaign trail best buds. 

IRKED EXTREMES MAY MEAN A HAPPY POLITICAL MIDDLE
(Gerald F. Seib, Wall Street Journal)
At this point in the presidential race, there's grousing on the left about Sen. Barack Obama, and grumbling on the right about Sen. John McCain. Does that mean Americans who reside in the broad center of the political spectrum should be happy? Perhaps so. If the Democratic contender's liberal base is unhappy with some recent Obama moves, and the Republican contender's conservative base remains uneasy over some McCain positions, that suggests one of the early assumptions about this year's presidential campaign -- that it had produced two unconventional nominees naturally inclined to reach across America's partisan divide -- actually may be true. This hardly means that either Sen. McCain or Sen. Obama has checked his ideology at the door. The Obama voting record in Congress reflects a general liberal tendency, and the McCain record, overall, is a conservative one. Both men, though, succeeded in no small measure by basing their candidacies on the notion that they intended to bring people together in the middle, even if that meant telling their own partisans things they didn't want to hear.

OBAMA SEEKS TO OVERCOME DOUBTS AMONG WOMEN
(Christopher Wills, Associated Press)
Many of Clinton's supporters aren't so willing to embrace Obama, at least not yet. Independents and moderate Republican women remain a question mark, too. So Obama is working fiercely to win their votes. He has put out a report explaining what his economic plans would mean for women, reinforcing the message with town hall meetings devoted to the subject. He talks frequently about being raised by a single mother, her economic struggles (including a period on food stamps) and her worries about health insurance as she was dying of cancer. He's hired former Clinton aides, including Dana Singiser as a senior adviser on female voters. His Web site offers a prominent "welcome" to Clinton supporters and an extensive section for women. Aides are planning events nationwide on the 88th anniversary of the day American women won the right to vote... Women are a group that holds potential for Obama - especially suburban married women, who have been swing voters in recent election. Men, by contrast, chose President Bush over Democrat John Kerry 55 percent to 44 percent in the last election. The GOP held an even greater advantage among white men, who favored Bush 62 percent to 37 percent, according to exit polling. In recent polls, Obama has had a significant edge among women. A Quinnipiac University poll released July 15 found women supported Obama over Republican John McCain, 55 percent to 36 percent. Among men, McCain had 47 percent and Obama 44 percent. However, Obama hasn't had an advantage among independent women voters, who gave him 45 percent to 42 percent for McCain, well within the margin of error. Obama also has work to do with some Clinton supporters. A recent poll by The Associated Press and Yahoo News found that just 12 percent of former Clinton supporters say they are excited about Obama.

MORE: 'Active Grannies' the New Soccer Moms (Mark J. Penn, Politico)
Despite all the talk about this election being driven by the youth vote, America as a nation has never been older and the power of the senior vote has never been greater. In the relentless quest to find the soccer moms of this election, perhaps the answer will be found in the “active granny” vote — empty-nesters who have found a new freedom in their lives after the kids have left and who look at the world very differently than do their kids graduating college. The seniors of today may not be the so-called Greatest Generation, but they sure are the biggest generation — and their voting power has been compounded by the dramatic expansion in average life expectancy that’s occurred since they were born. In 1976, voters older than 60 accounted for just 15 percent of the electorate. In 2004, they were 24 percent — a nearly 70-point jump in their voting strength. And the under-30 vote in 1976 was nearly 30 percent, so young people actually had a 2-1 edge. That has disappeared in recent years as the senior vote has surpassed the youth vote in sheer numbers. History also shows some similar, if less dramatic, changes: In 1960, when John F. Kennedy was elected president, most Americans were below the age of 45. Today that has been reversed in the census figures, with oldsters having a 4-point edge over those under 45.

A CANCELED OBAMA VISIT, AND THE STORY BEHIND IT
(Jeff Zeleny, New York Times)
For four days, Senator John McCain has sought to keep alive a story about how Senator Barack Obama called off a visit to American troops recuperating from war wounds at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany... “I’m sure that Senator Obama could have made no better use of his time than to meet with our men and women in uniform there,” Michael J. Durant, a retired Army soldier, said in a statement released by the McCain campaign. “That Barack Obama believes otherwise casts serious doubt on his judgment and calls into question his priorities.” Mr. Durant said the stop “was canceled after it became clear that campaign staff and the traveling press corps would not be allowed to accompany Senator Obama.” That assertion is not correct, Mr. Obama’s advisers say. Before his visit to Ramstein Air Base, which is near the medical center, was canceled, the plan called for reporters to stay behind at an airport terminal while Mr. Obama and one adviser met with the troops. Why? The Pentagon does not allow reporters and photographers inside Landstuhl. For weeks, Mr. Obama had been planning to visit wounded troops in Germany, just as he did in Afghanistan last week and previously had done at Walter Reed Army Medical Center in Washington. Yet the Landstuhl visit carried more risk because it was to come in the middle of an overseas campaign trip. Robert Gibbs, a senior strategist for the campaign, said Mr. Obama thought he could carry out the visit without being perceived as politicizing it. But two days before the visit, Pentagon officials told the campaign that only Mr. Obama would be allowed inside the medical center in his capacity as a senator. “That triggered then a concern that maybe our visit was going to be perceived as political..." Obama said.

TAKING LIBERALITIES
(Josh Patashnik, New Republic)
Where does Obama really fall on the spectrum? No vote-ranking system can capture it perfectly, since ideology is as much about legislative priorities and emphases as it is about votes. But here's a rough idea: In his first two years in the Senate, when he didn't miss many votes, Obama ranked 16th and 10th on National Journal's "most liberal" list. A separate and more elaborate ranking system, developed by highly regarded political scientists Jeff Lewis and Keith Poole, found him to be the 11th most liberal senator in 2007 and 21st most liberal in the previous Congress. Obama clearly belongs to the party's liberal wing rather than its centrist contingent--he's essentially said as much--but he's not close to being the Senate's left-most member... That reality, of course, won't stop conservatives from trumpeting the "most liberal" label throughout the fall campaign. There's one problem, though: The public already believes Obama is a liberal, and he's winning nonetheless. According to a June Rasmussen poll, 67 percent of the public views Obama as liberal (Pew's numbers, from May, were similar). By contrast, in May 2004, only 45 percent viewed Kerry as liberal, and not until October did that figure crack the 50 percent mark. As Nate Silver has put it, the public's reaction to the charge that Obama is liberal appears to be, "Well, no s**t! We're voting for him anyway."

OH, LUCKY MAN
(Christopher Hitchens, Slate)
The worst you can say of Obama's position on Iraq (where we also didn't declare war but where we did have a long series of U.N. resolutions putting the Saddam Hussein regime outside international law) is that he was a member of that quite large and undistinguished group that constituted the president's fair-weather wartime friends. Shortly after Baghdad had fallen at a then-cost of perhaps 100 U.S. fatalities, he said publicly that there was no serious difference between the Bush position and his own. It was only by retro-engineering his politics, and pointing to a speech he had made in Chicago very much earlier in the Iraq debate, that he was able to create the idea that he had been both braver and more prescient than his rivals for the nomination. According to your taste, then, this succession of local and national and now international shifts and adaptations makes Obama either a very ordinary politician or a highly extraordinary one. The timing of events in Iraq and Afghanistan seems to make him an astonishingly fortunate nominee. And fortunate, too, it must be said, in his opponent. Sen. John McCain could have said gravely that only the surge made the talk of American withdrawal—whether it came from Nouri al-Maliki or Obama—possible in the first place. He could have taken Obama's words from last February, about the 1^st Cavalry vanquishing al-Qaida, and used them wryly and dryly to congratulate the younger man on being willing to learn. Instead, he peppered everything but the target with the inaccurate charge that Obama had always been anti-war and anti-surge. Obama may indeed have been serially for them after he was against them, but that's different from (and better than) the other way around.

OUR FIRST TRANSNATIONAL PRESIDENT?
(Rich Lowry, New York Post)
Obama feels fit to speak for the world because of his background. Presidential candidates once relied on the myth of the log cabin to convey their connection to the common folks. Obama's log cabin has gone global as a symbol of his oneness with the world's majority. This is why he brandishes his upbringing and family as a foreign-policy credential. In explaining why his foreign-policy experience outstrips that of long-serving officeholders who know foreign leaders, Obama said a few months ago, "When I speak about having lived in Indonesia for four years, having family that is impoverished in small villages in Africa -- knowing the leaders is not important -- what I know is the people." Transnational progressivism is closely allied to multiculturalism. Both share a hostility to American exceptionalism and seek to rein it in, by imposing global rules on the U.S. and by transcending its traditional culture (as defined by history, symbols and language). Obama, who for so long painfully sought an identity and initially found it in a black-nationalist church, clearly has affinities running in this direction. Consider his gaffes: The world won't stand for us driving and eating and air-conditioning our homes as we please. We should worry less about immigrants learning English and more about teaching our kids Spanish. Gun-owning, Bible-believing people in rural areas are bitter. The flag pin is an inadequate symbol of patriotism. When Obama briefly auditioned his own presidential seal, "e pluribus unum" got bumped. These are all hints of Obama's instincts, but he knows he has to check them. He has restored a flag pin to his lapel, ditched the fake seal and in Berlin was careful to declare himself also "a proud citizen of the United States" and defend America's global leadership. He'd be wise to do more. In November, the world doesn't have a vote.