Name: Tom Ridge; Joe Lieberman

Age: Ridge, 62; Lieberman, 66

Education: Ridge, Harvard (undergrad) and Dickinson (law); Lieberman, Yale (undergrad and law)

Resume: Ridge, six-term Pennsylvania congressman, one-term Pennsylvania governor, former secretary of Homeland Security; Lieberman, former Connecticut attorney general, four-term Connecticut senator

 

Source of Speculation: McCain himself. The chattering classes have long included Republican Ridge and Independent Democrat Lieberman on the list of possible McCain running mates, but, thanks thanks to their moderate stances on social issues (read: abortion) they've typically ranked at or near the bottom. That seems to have changed this week. First, McCain launched a two-day swing through Pennsylvania Sunday with a yellow perch dinner alongside the Ridge family at Smuggler's Wharf in Erie, the former governor's hometown; although the meal was not on McCain's schedule, staffers leaked word to local papers and were rewarded with glowing front-page coverage the following day. When McCain arrived in York on Tuesday with both Ridge and Lieberman in tow, the Washington Post breathlessly noted that he'd selected "not one but two of The Mentioned" as traveling companions. But the most intriguing development came Wednesday afternoon, when McCain made it clear in an interview with the Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes that he's considering a pro-choice veep."I think that the pro-life position is one of the important aspects or fundamentals of the Republican Party," he said. "And I also feel that--and I'm not trying to equivocate here--that Americans want us to work together." McCain went on single out Ridge--"one of the great leaders" who "happens to be pro-choice"--as a possibility. "I don't think that that would necessarily rule Tom Ridge out," he said.

 

Backstory: This isn't the first time McCain has indicated that he's open to picking a pro-choice veep. During the 2000 campaign, for example, the Arizona senator told Charlie Rose that no single issue--including abortion--would serve as a VP litmus test. But he seemed to shift his stance (or at least his emphasis) during this year's Republican primaries. Asked by Chris Matthews on April 15 whether he would choose Ridge despite the former governor's pro-choice position, McCain stressed that "cherishing of the right of the unborn is one of the fundamental principles of my party"--as well as a "deeply held belief of mine"--before admitting that his disagreement with Ridge would make a potential partnership "difficult."  McCain's new, more moderate tone, writes Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post, reflects the fact that three of McCain's rumored "Final Four"--Lieberman, Ridge and Romney (subjected to the Veepwatch treatment here)--are either pro-choice or were pro-choice, like Romney, until 2004. "In opening up the possibility of choosing a pro-choice nominee just a few weeks (or even days) before he is expected to make his vice presidential pick public," says Cillizza, "McCain is likely testing the waters to see how such a move would be received by the base voters who have long been skeptical about his conservative bona fides." I agree, with one small caveat--"likely testing the waters" should read "definitely testing the waters."

 

Odds: Lieberman is still a longshot--but Ridge looks increasingly possible. The logic behind either pick is pretty obvious. With his patented "maverick" brand tarnished after years of appeasing the Republican establishment--not to mention his hard right turn in the GOP primaries--McCain will only win in November if he can convince a decisive block of moderate swing voters that's he still the same guy he was in 2000. The quickest, easiest way to accomplish that task? By using the most consequential decision of his presidential campaign--his choice of running mate--as an opportunity to defy conservative orthodoxy and conventional wisdom. If McCain picks a perceived "moderate" like Lieberman or Ridge, the thinking goes, centrists will again see the senator as the principled, independent, apolitical maverick they once loved. At the very least, he'll look more courageously "postpartisan" than Democratic rival Barack Obama, who's likely to pick a safe white liberal--and perhaps even poach some disgruntled, pro-choice former Hillary Clinton supporters in the process.

 

So what's not to love? Well, as the punditocracy puts it, asking social conservatives--who represent the cornerstone of the Republican base and have long harbored suspicions about McCain--to put a "pro-choice" pol a heartbeat away from the Oval Office would produce one of two reactions, either of which would likely cancel out McCain's potential gains among moderates: a) widespread revolt (which may or may not involve torches and pitchforks) or b) widespread staying at home on Election Day. But while devastating conservative backlash would inevitably accompany Lieberman's selection--despite his hawkishness, the Connecticut senator's 100 percent NARAL rating, "F" from the NRA, opposition to a ban on "partial birth" abortions, support for gay rights and Democratic resume is enough to make any right-winger apoplectic--I'm not so sure that, at this moment in history, the same can be said for Ridge.

 

One of the major reasons that McCain--an unusually "personal" politician--is mulling both Ridge and Lieberman is that he considers them close friends. In 1982, Ridge and McCain arrived together in Congress and quickly bonded over the shared service in Vietnam; Lieberman boldly broke ranks with his party to support McCain's presidential bid and has since become one of McCain's constant traveling companions and most vocal surrogates--a show of loyalty valued highly by the Arizonan. But other than his friendship--and his Democratic bona fides, which would conceivably lend his attacks on Obama some added "postpartisan" weight--Lieberman brings little to the ticket. A security-obsessed senator without executive experience or domestic expertise (much like McCain), he'd never add enough votes to the Republican column--either from moderates, or in his home state of Connecticut--to offset the sizable losses his presence would generate on the right.

 

But Ridge is a different story. Unlike McCain, he's managed a statewide government and a Cabinet-level department, dealing with pocketbook problems and logistical snafus on a day-to-day basis. Raised in veterans' public housing by working-class Catholic parents, he'd serve as an able ambassador to white blue-collar voters already wary of Obama--not only in Pennsylvania, where he left office with a 57 percent approval rating and could potentially catapult McCain into contention, but in other Rust Belt swing states like Ohio and Michigan that are crucial to the Republican nominee's chances in November. Ridge's long resume and military background--he left law school to serve in Vietnam, where he earned a Bronze Star and other medals for "for exceptionally valorous actions"--would only reinforce McCain's perceived edge over Obama in the experience and foreign-policy departments.

 

Finally, when it comes to abortion, it's worth noting that Ridge's pro-choice position is about as restrictive as they come--and may not inspire the mass right-wing uproar that pundits anticipate. According to a 1998 survey, Ridge opposes "partial birth" abortion, abortion as birth control, abortion in cases other than rape or incest or to save the life of the mother, abortion without parental consent and travel to other states to avoid notification laws. Which means that, by staying home, social conservatives would be sacrificing the opportunity to elect a fully pro-life president (i.e., McCain) who has pledged to appoint "strict constructionists" to the two Supreme Court seats likely to open up over the next eight years in favor of a Democrat (Obama) who boasts a 100 percent NARAL rating and has essentially pledged to do the opposite--simply because McCain's veep, who has absolutely no bearing on abortion laws whatsoever, is only 95 percent anti-abortion. Sure, some will still refuse to vote. But enough to swing the election--or even outweigh the moderate voters Ridge will attract in Pennsylvania and elsewhere? I'm not so sure.

 

Ridge isn't perfect. Dems would seize on his shaky tenure as Homeland Security director--he is, after all, the reason why our terror threats come in an array of delightful colors and our sneakers can no longer pass through an airport unmolested--to further link McCain to the Bush Administration's failures. And former Clintonistas probably won't consider Ridge's brand of "pro-choice" politics all that attractive. Meanwhile, Republicans would find a lot not to love in his time as Pennsylvania governor, including a mixed record on taxes, a rash of liberal appointments, a reluctance to pass school-choice programs and a McCainian tendency to (in his own words) "give those Republicans heartburn." But on the whole, Ridge's positives outweigh those of either Romney or Tim Pawlenty, his top rivals for the gig--especially in this year's anti-Republican climate. The question for McCain--the "original maverick", according to his latest ad--is whether he can stomach Ridge's single negative. In 2000, Bush nearly picked the Pennsylvanian, but appeased conservatives by choosing a guy named Dick Cheney instead. This time, taking the road less traveled by could make all the difference.